I still think UKIP have a chance here, despite Farage not standing. Especially if they're riding high off a huge win in the European elections at the time. The Tories really have a very poor record in byelections in this parliament--I saw a while ago that, on average, their vote has actually fallen in byelections a little more than the Lib Dems have!!

 

I don't think Labour have a hope in hell of winning it. Like most rural areas, it's really trended away heavily from Labour as the party has got more and more of a metropolitan image since 1997 (and that trend is accelerating judging by local election results in the past few years). I'm expecting a distant third for them, possibly with a fall on their 2010 vote.

If it's such a rural seat I don't see how Labour's vote could fall - presumably you expect UKIP to take some, but it's not exactly the kind of seat where the two cross over much.

The last Tory to win a by-election while the party was in power is William Hague who won Richmond (just) in 1989.

And even then he wouldn't have if only David Owen had just bloody ACCEPTED IT.

And even then he wouldn't have if only David Owen had just bloody ACCEPTED IT.

Too true :(

Roger Helmer has been announced as the UKIP's candidate for this election.

 

If his Wikipedia page is to believed, as well as Europe, he also hates women, gays & Catholics. Seems like a lovely bloke. /sarcasm.

I'm CRYING LAUGHING. He is literally the Ukip parody manifest. At least Diane James and Margot Parker (Ukip's Eastleigh/Corby by-election candidates) came off like reasonably sane and normal people. Roger Helmer's the kind of person who toxified the Tories.

Still a Con-Lab marginal then.

Roger Helmer has been announced as the UKIP's candidate for this election.

 

If his Wikipedia page is to believed, as well as Europe, he also hates women, gays & Catholics. Seems like a lovely bloke. /sarcasm.

That man is truly delusional.

 

Not just over the Gays and Catholics things but thinking 80% of American's have better healthcare than we do. More like 0.1% of Americans...

I'm CRYING LAUGHING. He is literally the Ukip parody manifest. At least Diane James and Margot Parker (Ukip's Eastleigh/Corby by-election candidates) came off like reasonably sane and normal people. Roger Helmer's the kind of person who toxified the Tories.

 

For once, I agree with you! The main reason for UKIP's success lately is they've been very good at pushing forward people who can speak "populist-ly" and present themselves as down-to-earth and "in touch" with people, as a stark contrast to the Westminster class. On the other hand, this Helmer guy comes across as a typical upper-class Establishment politician, only with looney tune views on top, which I doubt will have that much appeal to UKIP's more recent converts.

 

Tory win now highly likely.

Edited May 6, 201411 yr by Danny

Don't forget the by-election will be this Thursday (5th June).

 

Here's an interesting article on BBC News: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27627305

According to one opinion poll it is a fairly close three-way fight with the Tories currently ahead. It showed UKIP ahead of Labour by just one percentage point.

Judging by what people are saying tonight it looks like the Tories will win.

The turnout percentage is expected at 1am, with the result expected at 3am. The turnout is expected to be around 53% according to early reports which seems very good!

A tweet from an account claiming to be the official UKIP twitter account for Newark:

 

UKIP Newark @UKIP_Newark

We think we have fallen a few votes short of victory tonight but we'll be back in 2015 as the only serious challengers to the Tories here.

Turnout now officially confirmed at 52.79%. This seems like a very high turnout even when taking into account the high media interest in this by-election! :o

Rumours now suggesting that the Liberal Democrats may have only finished 6th behind the Green Party and an Independent candidate. The full results is now expected in around 30 minutes!

The Conservatives have held off a challenge from UKIP and retained the Nottinghamshire seat of Newark in a by-election.

 

Tory candidate Robert Jenrick received 17,431 votes, with UKIP's Roger Helmer second with 10,028.

 

This gives the Conservatives a significantly reduced majority of 7,403, down from more than 16,000 at the last general election in 2010.

 

Labour finished third, with the Liberal Democrats trailing in sixth place behind independent Paul Baggaley and the Green Party's candidate, David Kirwan.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1276609/conserva...-in-by-election

I expected third for Labour but it's poor for the vote share to go down. I heard from people who were there that there were undecideds who were voting Tory to keep UKIP out.

Unexpectedly poor performance from UKIP. If people are prepared to tactically vote against them, then that will really screw them over since their ceiling in any constituency is probably 35-40% maximum. They'll really need to choose their targets seats carefully (i.e. marginal seats where the winning post will be low, rather than safe Tory or Labour seats).

 

Expected Labour flop. Beating dead horse time, but this really hopefully should shake them out of their complacency. They are not going to get a majority on present trends, and probably won't be be the biggest party. They are NOWHERE in the blue-collar parts of the Midlands where so many of the marginal seats are, no matter how many wasted votes they rack up in London or in safe southern "Middle England" seats where they have no chance of taking the seats.

Edited June 6, 201411 yr by Danny

It's an expected flop, but Newark is by no means blue-collar, especially on the current boundaries...

It's an expected flop, but Newark is by no means blue-collar, especially on the current boundaries...

 

"Blue collar" is probably not the right term, but it IS a fairly poor area, the type of lower middle-class people who are the real swing voters. Nottinghamshire is not wealthy no matter how big the Tory majorities have been here lately.

Edited June 6, 201411 yr by Danny