In other news, it looks like the Green Party has given up before they've even started. This is their Party Political Broadcast -

 

Still not quite as bad as

or this but it's pretty close!

Still not quite as bad as

or this but it's pretty close!

The one saving grace with the Lib Dem one is that it isn't a serious broadcast. That doesn't alter the fact that it is terrible, of course.

Latest Ashcroft constituency polls showing solid Labour leads over the Tories in Stockton South (5pt lead, 7th on target list), Morecambe and Lunesdale (6pt lead, 14th on target list), Hove (6pt lead, 28th on target list) and Harrow East (4pt lead, 52nd on target list), and a tie in Pudsey (26th on target list), with most of the Tory leads in seats between 40th and 60th on the target list.

 

It'd take something big to not be making many gains from the Conservatives on election night at this rate.

so the political gloves are off, the electorate are apparently mindless idiots who are swayed by politicians slagging each other off, hinting, making snide remarks, backtracking on broken promises, glossing over the truth, or spewed propaganda by crap newspapers.

 

Is there an election shortly...?

Latest Ashcroft constituency polls showing solid Labour leads over the Tories in Stockton South (5pt lead, 7th on target list), Morecambe and Lunesdale (6pt lead, 14th on target list), Hove (6pt lead, 28th on target list) and Harrow East (4pt lead, 52nd on target list), and a tie in Pudsey (26th on target list), with most of the Tory leads in seats between 40th and 60th on the target list.

 

It'd take something big to not be making many gains from the Conservatives on election night at this rate.

 

 

It's looking good then in terms of middle England - if Scotland returned their 2010 results Labour would easily have a majority!!

It's looking good then in terms of middle England - if Scotland returned their 2010 results Labour would easily have a majority!!

Not quite - we're not winning all of the seats in our first 66 targets, which would take us to a majority if we didn't lose a single seat from 2010. We would very easily be the biggest party though.

The fact even seats in Edinburgh are having 25% swings from labour to SNP shows things are looking dire up north!

I think Glasgow falling to the SNP is a real possibility but realistically I don't see Edinburgh following suit.

 

I'm looking forward to the Scottish announcements to see just how accurate the polls are and to hope we can at least pull of 25-30 seats.

I think Glasgow falling to the SNP is a real possibility but realistically I don't see Edinburgh following suit.

 

I'm looking forward to the Scottish announcements to see just how accurate the polls are and to hope we can at least pull of 25-30 seats.

 

Is there even a 0.05% chance of my "Labour winning North East Fife" bet coming good? *sob*

There's still a month for the SNP candidate to endorse child molestation.

Is there even a 0.05% chance of my "Labour winning North East Fife" bet coming good? *sob*

I'm not entirely convinced that Labour will even beat the LibDems here.

The Lib Dems will probably be second there - I think the candidate's local.

I'm not so sure about that. The Tory vote here is fairly strong at around 8k. It's also not tied to a candidate as the '01 & '05 Tory candidate stood as UKIP in '10 and his vote plummeted to 1k (He's standing as an Indie this year and we have no UKIP candidate this year :o )

 

This will be the first election where one of the LibDems and the Tories doesn't finish in the top 2. While the Tories won't win, I can see their support holding firm enough for them to maintain second as the SNP take it from the LibDems.

 

(The candidate is local, he's a councillor)

There's a *lot* of tactical unionist voting that's going to be happening in seats like that - it's been coming up in our polling fieldwork! A lot of Tories have been saying they'll be voting Lib Dem as the best anti-SNP option. Not enough for them to win in most seats, but enough to make a close enough second to launch a fightback in 2020 a realistic possibility.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/...land-s-59-seats

 

 

Given that Trident's back in the news today, and knowing that I will never turn down any opportunity to insert a Yes (Prime) Minister video in here -

 

Whiff of panic starting to come from the Tories with their desperate attack on Ed "stabbing his brother in the back". I don't really think these types of personal attacks work -- even though people themselves think/say all the things about Ed being disloyal and weird and out-of-his-depth, they (hypocritically) judge politicians when they stoop to their standards. All the "focus groups" after the Jeremy Paxman interviews showed people got annoyed when the questions got too personal.

Ha the tories election campaign really has been awful so far - Milliband will increase his lead in the polls over the weekend i would say if this continues!

Coming next week - "Under Labour, you will be forced to sell your granny. Under the Conservatives, everybody will have at least one granny."

The Tories have three lines of attack with Miliband - weird, weak, and backstabbing. The latter two contradict each other and people seem to care less and less about the first one. Not going well...