Elections and referendums cost millions that can be used much better. Whatever Brexit we get the majority voted to leave and am sure will be happy once we're out. I trust May and Davis to negotiate the best deal possible but we may have to compromise and can't expect the EU to just roll over and give us exactly what we want. I don't really care what sort of Brexit we get so long as we're out in two years and everyone I speak to who voted out feels the same.

 

as I said, frightened of democracy. There is no need for this expensive new parliament. They were elected on a 5-year-programme. Idiocy to say "f*** the future of the country, whatever it takes" - fine if it's just YOU who suffers as a consequence (and everyone who voted Leave who will have no ability to ever moan about the state of the UK afterwards) - but NOT fine for everyone who didn't agree to go along with it. May and Davis disagree on Brexit. They have no choice but to agree with what the EU wants - why else do you think this pointless election is taking place BEFORE a single thing has been discussed? To give them an extra 2 years to try and make it look less bad that's why....

 

Happy to predict right now:

 

Immigration will not reduce significantly (other than from natural wastage ie people not wanting to move here because the Uk economy has tanked).

 

Cost of Living will rise 20% on pre-Referendum.

 

Banking will split between London and the EU, and UK regulations will go risky all over again allowing debt-ridden risk-mongers to take us all down again. The rich will be secure in British Virgin islands, Jersey etc.

 

We will become puppets of Right-wing rich foreign media, even more than we already are.

 

Poor people will be viewed as a cheap labour pool to keep in low-paid jobs.

 

Always happy for anyone to re-read any of my past comments/predictions and compare for a laugh.

52% is not the be and end all. It is the tiniest of majorities, not enough to force constitutional change, and we should have more say. This time, drop the stupid campaigns and let people make their own minds up without the press shoving its oars in or Nazo Farage using Nazi propaganda and pretending he is not the elite.

 

as was beautifully explained on The Last Leg last night, the main problem with the UK media is not the TV media. TV media have to remain unbiased during elections/referendum and bite their lip every time a politician lies. The opposition have the job of explaining the facts, which allows yet another lying comeback. That's how Leave won.

 

The other main problem is the print media, owned largely by foreign or tax-exile billionaires and millionaires who do not live in the UK and have political manipulation as a reality (May has just had dinner with Murdoch & The Mail owner) and they can print any lies they like, any bias they like, freely. The "Elite" are totally all in it together, and they have propaganda machines that the more left/liberal in society don't have to anywhere near the same degree.

Farage & Mr May are both from the banking sector, Mrs May has investments in Offshore schemes, Farage rakes in hundreds of thousands for doing nothing, and none of them will do a thing to do anything that puts their own interests at risk. Quite the reverse. Rich look after the rich. Only mugs fall for the BS.

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 44% (-1)

LAB: 35% (+3)

LDEM: 9% (+1)

UKIP: 3% (-3)

 

(via @YouGov / 18 - 19 May)

Chgs. w/ 17 May)

Lab vote shares today:

Opinium - 33%

ORB - 34%

YouGov - 35%

Survation - 34%

 

Pollsters better hope they've fixed their methodologies...

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 44% (-1)

LAB: 35% (+3)

LDEM: 9% (+1)

UKIP: 3% (-3)

 

(via @YouGov / 18 - 19 May)

Chgs. w/ 17 May)

That would give a Tory majority of around 40. If pro-EU Tories showed some backbone, things could be very interesting.

It has to be said Corbyns campaign is going well!

That would give a Tory majority of around 40. If pro-EU Tories showed some backbone, things could be very interesting.

Fat chance. They haven't exactly showed a backbone when they've had a much smaller majority, and they've seen what happens to openly divided parties with Labour recently and their own party in the 90's.

 

I'm actually a little annoyed that the Tories are losing ground just when I don't hate them as much as I could. Like, I'm happy that they're reducing the triple lock on pensions to a double lock, and I really hope that isn't costing them too many votes. That's far from the first time that I've been in favour of a Tory policy, but I think it's the first where I actually prefer their policy over Labour's.

 

Labour getting a decent number of votes compared to 2010 and 2015 while still resoundingly losing the election would also be horrendous because a nuanced outcome would never allow divisions within the party to be healed as each faction would use this mixed result to mean what they want it to. I wish there was a parallel universe where Labour didn't go full Seppuku during 2016. It would certainly be interesting to see what would happen to the party now.

 

edit: actually can we just cancel 2016 altogether.

Edited May 21, 20178 yr by Harve

It has to be said Corbyns campaign is going well!

 

 

Yes and May's is going badly. A lot against this social care reform where they sell your house after you've died. Lots of older Tory voters are very angry.

The people also voted to stay, or is 48% not included in our definition of 'the people' now? And what about the young people who couldn't vote, who tip 80-20 remain? :)

 

Well, it's clear from the polls that that 48% are definitely not flooding to the very-pro-EU LibDem's...

 

Not nearly as much as UKIP get coverage who are now officially dead forever.

 

They will come back from the 'dead' if there's any attempt to backslide from Brexit, though.

 

 

52% is not the be and end all. It is the tiniest of majorities, not enough to force constitutional change, and we should have more say. This time, drop the stupid campaigns and let people make their own minds up without the press shoving its oars in or Nazo Farage using Nazi propaganda and pretending he is not the elite.

 

That's quite a bee you have in your bonnet. :P

 

 

Happy to predict right now:

 

Immigration will not reduce significantly (other than from natural wastage ie people not wanting to move here because the Uk economy has tanked).

 

Cost of Living will rise 20% on pre-Referendum.

 

Banking will split between London and the EU, and UK regulations will go risky all over again allowing debt-ridden risk-mongers to take us all down again. The rich will be secure in British Virgin islands, Jersey etc.

 

We will become puppets of Right-wing rich foreign media, even more than we already are.

 

Poor people will be viewed as a cheap labour pool to keep in low-paid jobs.

 

Always happy for anyone to re-read any of my past comments/predictions and compare for a laugh.

 

Agree with point 1

 

Why would cost of living rise by that much?

 

No idea on 3

 

Disagree with 4

 

No change there re #5. :P

 

That would give a Tory majority of around 40. If pro-EU Tories showed some backbone, things could be very interesting.

 

Even pro-EU Tories won't do anything to help commie Corbyn!

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 44% (-1)

LAB: 35% (+3)

LDEM: 9% (+1)

UKIP: 3% (-3)

 

(via @YouGov / 18 - 19 May)

Chgs. w/ 17 May)

 

It is a surprisingly two-party race.

 

The LD's are bit stuck though, after all, unlike the Tories and to a lesser extent Labour, they could hardly expect to gain the votes of former UKIPers. :P

The LibDems in this election decided on a daft strategy, and made it worse by picking a frontman totally unsuited to the strategy. All the talk of "the 48%" ever since the referendum completely overlooked that, for a substantial chunk of that 48%, it was only a borderline "head over heart" decision - and that, even for the chunk who really did feel passionate about it, it was going to be overruled by other issues once an actual General Election came into view.

 

I would guess an "Ultra-Remain" election strategy would've had a ceiling of about 15% if they'd picked an appropriate frontman like Clegg, but they're going to fall short even of that, since a lot of that 15% probably didn't think much of Tim's musings about the sinfulness or otherwise of gay sex.

I think this is by and large true - they really jumped at what they saw as an opportunity for relevance again but it's looking more misjudged by the day.

Whilst I am happy that the Tory lead has decreased, I find it annoying that it has come because of pensioners being hit. I don't agree with all the policies about pensioners but I do agree with some of them and it is fair for them to take their fair share of the hit. At the end of the day, people living longer is an incredible strain on or society and I can guarantee I won't get half the benefits that pensioners get now when I eventually retire at the age of 85.

Are we sure all these angry pensioners will still vote labour because of this though!?

They will come back from the 'dead' if there's any attempt to backslide from Brexit, though.

 

It took them 25 years to get to 2016 though and won't be so easy to regain that lost ground so a Tory majority could actually lead to May having the ground to have the brexit she wants and avoid a right wing ukip brexit so you might not get what you want with a strong Tory lead.

Are we sure all these angry pensioners will still vote labour because of this though!?

 

 

No, some will just not bother to vote.

Well, well, well, I was right again!!

 

Labour won't win but 34-5% is an absolute RESULT and shows how popular Corbyn's ideas are even aftwr the undemocratic brainwashing SAVAGE attacks of our non-independent disgusting press.

I think this is by and large true - they really jumped at what they saw as an opportunity for relevance again but it's looking more misjudged by the day.

 

 

..or alternatively it's a policy because it's the sensible thing to do! To avoid leaving with a useless deal which will harm the UK. Don't see Labour agreeing to anything other than "we'd quite like to stay in the single market but if the Tories make a Hard Brexit out of it than we'll go along with it anyway because the people know what's best for themselves." Presumably be happy if they lose the popular vote to go along with every single Tory policy voted for on the same grounds - unless they suddenly work out how to be an effective opposition.

 

The Tories have brought in a Dementia Tax - that's what it is. You get to keep up to 100k to pass on to your family, the rest goes to the State. it's almost as if they are encouraging those with early-onset to, y'know, commit suicide to avoid becoming a burden if they want to pass on their life-savings. Any other fatal disease gets NHS cover.

f***ing c**ts. I'm sorry for the language but that's the only word for such a heartless policy (which is pretty much how it's been for years anyway). Have I expressed how much I loathe Tories? Thought so...

 

Labour meanwhile having costed up a decent set of policies (as the Tories have costed up f*** all) then have as usual Jeremy putting his foot in his mouth again in his usual areas of weakness.

 

It's almost as if no-one wants to win the election....

 

 

Why would cost of living rise by that much?

 

Err because the pound has fallen that much and it will eventually filter through anyway. There is the added risk that it may fall further if we get a rubbish deal with no-one to buy our goods (there's an instant 10% extra cost, plus an extra 10% for all goods from the Eu imported). So, 20% is a fairly reasonable estimate. It could be as low as 10% if we get a good deal and the pound recovers, or as bad as runaway inflation if we get totally f***ed by it. Im guessing somewhere in between.

No, some will just not bother to vote.

Which is effectively the same thing as they swing viciously pro-Tory

With Labour's poll numbers, if SNP hadn't risen a few years ago and Labour still polled its usual in Scotland, it would be neck and neck with the Tories, or, as Unionists wouldn't have rallied round the Tories, maybe even ahead.