October 17, 20168 yr Author First of all, do you like this format or should I change it?! First Predicts: Picture + Leads! Summary In Bold BEST PICTURE 1. (2) La La Land Starting to look unstoppable 2. (1) Fences 3. (4) Silence 4. (5) Jackie 5. (9) Manchester By The Sea Can't see this missing after seeing it 6. (6) Arrival 7. (7) Moonlight 8. (10) Nocturnal Animals 9. (13) A Monster Calls My wildcard 10. (3) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Poor reviews but not writing it off completely yet 11. (11) Lion 12. (12) Sully 13. (15) 20th Cenutry Women 14. (8) Loving Have a hunch this is going to miss 15. Live By Night 16. (14) Hidden Figures 17. (16) The Jungle Book 18. (17) Hell Or High Water 19. (18) Passengers 20. (20) Hacksaw Ridge 21. Rules Don't Apply 22. Miss Sloane 23. Zootopia 24. 13th 25. Patriots Day 26. Collateral Beauty 27. Allied 28. Moana 29. Florence Foster Jenkins 30. Bleed For This 31. Toni Erdmann 32. 10 Cloverfield Lane 33. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 34. Gold 35. I, Daniel Blake 36. Love & Friendship 37. Eye In The Sky 38. Elle 39. Cafe Society 40. (19) The Girl On The Train No chance after the reviews OTHER CONTENDERS: A United Kingdom American Honey Captain Fantastic Denial Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find THem Paterson Queen Of Katwe The Hollars BEST LEAD ACTOR 1. (2) Casey Afffleck- Manchester By The Sea Really think he might deservedly start to runaway with this 2. (1) Denzel Washington- Fences 3. (3) Ryan Gosling- La La Land 4. (-/6 from SA) Warren Beatty- Rules Don't Apply Category move 5. (6) Tom Hanks- Sully Big box office + recent misses, can see this being the one to finally get him a nomination after a while away 6. (5) Joel Edgerton- Loving 7. (8) Jake Gyllenhaal- Nocturnal Animals 8. (7) Miles Teller- Bleed For This 9. (9) Andrew Garfield- Silence Can see one of the Garfield performances really picking up, not sure which one though 10. Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge 11. Will Smith- Collateral Beauty 12. Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic 13. Michael Keaton- The Founder 14. Dev Patel- Lion 15. Ben Affleck- Live By Night 16. Chris Pine- Hell Or High Water 17. Adam Driver- Paterson 18. Alden Ehrenreich- Rules Don't Apply 19. Robert De Niro- The Comedian 20. (5) Joe Alywn- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Poor reviews for the film 21. Peter Simonischek- Toni Erdmann 22. Don Cheadle- Miles Ahead 23. Brad Pitt- Allied 24. Chris Pratt- Passengers 25. Dave Johns- I, Daniel Blake Other Contenders: Colin Farrell- The Lobster Jesse Eisenberg- Cafe Society Jonah Hill- War Dogs Lewis MacDougall- A Monster Calls Mark Wahlberg- Patriots Day Michael Shannon- Midnight Special Ryan Reynolds- Deadpool BEST LEAD ACTRESS 1. (1) Emma Stone- La La Land 2. (2) Viola Davis- Fences 3. (3) Natalie Portman- Jackie 4. (5) Amy Adams- Arrival 5. (6) Annette Benning- 20th Century Women 6. (4) Ruth Negga- Loving Only missing due to the sheer competitveness of this category 7. (8) Jessica Chastain- Miss Sloane 8. (7) Amy Adams- Nocturnal Animals 9. (9) Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins 10. Isabelle Huppert- Elle 11. (10) Emily Blunt- The Girl On The Train The only aspect of the film that I can't see getting heavily affected by the reviews, though the film needed better reviews for Emily to have a chance of sneaking in 12. Jennifer Lawrence- Passengers 13. Kate Beckinsale- Love & Friendship 14. Taraji P. Henson- Hidden Figuers 15. (11) Rebecca Hall- Christine 16. Marion Cotillard- Allied 17. Sally Field- Hello, My Name Is Doris 18. Kristen Stewart- Cafe Society 19. Rachel Weisz- Denial 20. Lily Collins- Rules Don't Apply 21. Sasha Lane- American Honey 22. Hailee Steinfeld- The Edge Of Seventeen 23. Mary Elizabeth Winstead- 10 Cloverfield Lane 24. Susan Sarandon- The Meddler 25. Madina Nalwanga- Queen Of Katwe Other Contenders: Adriana Ugarte- Julieta Alicia Vikander- The Light Between Oceans Ellen Page- Tallulah Emma Euarez- Julieta Felicity Jones- Rogue One: A Stars Wars Story Isabelle Huppert- Things To Come Renee Zellweger- Bridget Jones Baby Sandra Huller- Toni Erdmann
October 17, 20168 yr Author First Predicts: Supporting + Director BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. (2) Liam Neeson- Silence 2. (3) Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals 3. (4) Mahershala Ali- Moonlight 4. (5) Aaron Eckhart- Bleed For This 5. (7) Jeff Bridges- Hell Or High Water 6. (11) Peter Sarsgaard- Jackie Buzz increasing 7. (12) Lucas Hedges- Manchester By The Sea 8. (10) John Goodman- 10 Cloverfield Lane 9. (9) Aaron Eckhart- Sully 10. (13) Alden Ehrenreich- Hail, Caesar 11. Alan Rickman- Eye In The Sky 12. Adam Driver- Silence 13. Stephen McKinley Henderson- Fences 14. Mykelti Williamson- Fences 15. John Goodman- Patriots Day 16. Jeremy Renner- Arrival 17. Michael Sheen- Passengers 18. Kevin Costner- Hidden Figures 19. David Oyelowo- Queen Of Katwe 20. Vince Vaughn- Hacksaw Ridge 21. Ben Foster- Hell Or High Water 22. Tom Bennett- Love & Friendship 23. Ralph Fiennes- A Bigger Splash 24. Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins 25. (8) John Legend- La La Land Not sure why I had him so high, 25th is still higher than most predictions OTHER CONTENDERS: Andre Holland (Moonlight), Brendan Gleeson (Live By Night), Danny DeVito (The Comedian), Edgar Ramirez (Gold), Edward Norton (Collateral Beauty), Forest Whitaker (Arrival), Jovan Adepo (Fences), Steve Carrell (Cafe Society), Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight), Woody Harrelson (The Edge Of Seventeen) ALT (1) Steve Martin- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Poor reviews ALT (14) Kyle Chandler- Manchester By The Sea Can't see him getting in after seeing the film BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. (3) Michelle Williams- Manchester By The Sea 2. (2) Naomie Harris- Moonlight 3. (6) Nicole Kidman- Lion Increased Buzz 4. (-) Felicity Jones- A Monster Calls My complete wildcard, can really see Jones showing up in a lot of places if she is good in this 5. (1) Kristen Stewart- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk The only part of the film which hasn't collapsed in my predictions. Reviews seem pretty good for Kristen but she'll probably drop nearer the time 6. (9) Greta Gerwig- 20th Century Women Increased buzz 7. (4) Margo Martindale- The Hollars 8. (7) Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures 9. (8) Elle Fanning- 20th Century Women 10. Helen Mirren- Eye In The Sky 11. (5) Laura Linney- Nocturnal Animals 12. Lupita N'Yongo- Queen Of Katwe 13. Elle Fanning- Live By Night 14. Janelle Monae- Hidden Figuers 15. (11) Rachel Weisz- The Light Between Oceans 16. Teresa Palmer- Hacksaw Ridge 17. (10) Haley Bennett- The Girl On The Train 18. Molly Shannon- Other People 19. Greta Gerwig- Jackie 20. Sienna Miller- Live By Night 21. Michelle Monaghan- Patriots Day 22. Helen Mirren- Collateral Bauty 23. Rooney Mara- Lion 24. Leslie Mann- The Comedian 25. Laura Dern- The Founder OTHER CONTENDERS: Annette Benning (Rules Don't Apply), Chloe Sevingly (Love & Friendship), Hayley Squires (I, Daniel Blake), Kate Winslet (Collateral Beauty), Keira Knightly (Collateral Beauty), Kyra Sedgwick (The Edge Of Seventeen), Lizzy Caplan (Allied), Margaret Bowman (Hell Or High Water), Rose Byrne (The Meddler), Tilda Swinton (Doctor Strange) BEST DIRECTOR 1. (2) Damien Chazelle - La La Land 2. (1) Denzel Washington- Fences 3. (5) Denis Villenvenue- Arrival 4. (4) Martin Scorsese- Silence 5. (7) Pablo Larrain- Jackie 6. (6) Barry Jenkins- Moonlight 7. (9) Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester By The Sea 8. (8) Jeff Nichols- Loving 9. Mike Mills- 20th Century Women 10. (10) Tom Ford- Nocturnal Animals 11. Garth Davis- Lion 12. Ben Affleck- Live By Night 13. J.A. Bayona- A Monster Calls 14. Morten Tyldum- Passengers 15. Clint Eastwood- Sully OTHER CONTENDERS: Ava DuVernay (13th), Peter Berg (Patriots Day), Robert Zemeckis (Allied), Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures), Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply) ALT (3) Ang Lee- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
October 17, 20168 yr Author Hope you enjoy this and please comment your thoughts and predictions, what you agree with and what you disagree with!
October 17, 20168 yr Love seeing a long list of all the contenders so I can get hyped for all the exciting new films within the next few months. Starting to think that Amy Adams is going to get completely snubbed now which is a shame but I think Ruth Negga, Jessica Chastain and Annette Bening could be just as likely to squeeze her out, especially as her votes will likely be split between her two contenders. Also seeing loads of predictions that have Hugh Grant as a front runner for Florence Foster Jenkins in the supporting category, not sure that'll be the case come the time nominations are revealed but I would love the film to get some big category recognition even if it is him and not Meryl.
October 18, 20168 yr ^ Obviously the same person can't be nominated twice in one category but how does the voting work to come up with the nominations? Can Academy members put forward the same person twice or would they have to pick between Amy's movies (which wouldn't be good for her chances I imagine)? Watched the trailer for A Monster Calls yesterday off the back of this, can't see the Academy going for it but it does look like a strong performance from Felicity. I'd swap it with Sully, Hanks + Eastwood + box office hit + story of an American hero, think it has a fair bit going for it. Really rooting for Kristen Stewart after how slated she was in Twilight. :lol:
October 18, 20168 yr I don't think she'll be snubbed, especially with the reviews Arrival is getting. I think they'll push that more and people will vote for that over Nocturnal Animals. Arrival shows her off more and is much more an Amy Adams movie compared to NA which is more "Jake Gyllenhaal and Amy Adams" I'm hoping anyway, everything I've seen of Arrival screams "winner" to me. She had a similar-ish problem with American Hustle and Her, both well recieved and both of he rperformances being superb. I still think Her was more Oscar winning than AH.
October 18, 20168 yr Arrival definitely looks the more appealing of the two to me from the trailers and more blockbuster-y too, given the commercial and awards success of Gravity and The Martian I would expect it to win out over Nocturnal Animals.
October 18, 20168 yr PLOT TWIST. She is nominated and wins for BvS. http://67.media.tumblr.com/872569744dedd74cecbd1a3b7b8d2c3e/tumblr_o9va0n2JtF1qbjy8co1_540.gif
October 18, 20168 yr ^ Obviously the same person can't be nominated twice in one category but how does the voting work to come up with the nominations? Can Academy members put forward the same person twice or would they have to pick between Amy's movies (which wouldn't be good for her chances I imagine)? Watched the trailer for A Monster Calls yesterday off the back of this, can't see the Academy going for it but it does look like a strong performance from Felicity. I'd swap it with Sully, Hanks + Eastwood + box office hit + story of an American hero, think it has a fair bit going for it. Really rooting for Kristen Stewart after how slated she was in Twilight. :lol: Not entirely sure what the rules are according to Academy voters but I imagine even if they can include both performances, I guess it is unlikely many would do so because of all the other strong contenders so I think that's where the majority of the split votes would come from, only having enough room for one Amy Adams performance in this case sort of thing.
October 25, 20168 yr Author Thanks for all the comments last week! This weeks is incoming! Starting to think that Amy Adams is going to get completely snubbed now which is a shame but I think Ruth Negga, Jessica Chastain and Annette Bening could be just as likely to squeeze her out, especially as her votes will likely be split between her two contenders. Also seeing loads of predictions that have Hugh Grant as a front runner for Florence Foster Jenkins in the supporting category, not sure that'll be the case come the time nominations are revealed but I would love the film to get some big category recognition even if it is him and not Meryl. I think with the Viola move, Amy has a better chance now! I've also been seeing loads of predicts for Hugh to win (my main award website I use predict him 1st) but I don't know, I just really can't see it happening at all! Really rooting for Kristen Stewart after how slated she was in Twilight. :lol: I really hope she can finally get a nomination this year!
October 25, 20168 yr Author Second Week Predicts: Picture + Leads! Summary In Bold BEST PICTURE 1. (1) La La Land 2. (2) Fences 3. (3) Silence 4. (4) Jackie 5. (5) Manchester By The Sea 6. (6) Arrival 7. (7) Moonlight 8. (11) Lion 9. (8) Nocturnal Animals 10. (13) 20th Century Women 11. (9) A Monster Calls 12. (12) Sully 13. (14) Loving 14. (16) Hidden Figures 15. (15) Live By Night 16. (20) Hacksaw Ridge 17. (17) The Jungle Book 18. (21) Rules Don't Apply 19. (10) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk 20. (18) Hell Or High Water 21. (19) Passengers 22. (22) Miss Sloane 23. (23) Zootopia 24. (27) Allied 25. (26) Collateral Beauty 26th-30th: 13th, Patriots Day, Florence Foster Jenkins, Toni Erdmann, Bleed For This 31st-40th: Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, I Daniel Blake, Eye In The Sky, Love & Friendship, Elle, Gold, Cafe Society, 10 Cloverfield Lane, The Comedian OTHER CONTENDERS: A United Kingdom, American Honey, Captain Fantastic, Denial, Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them, Paterson, Queen Of Katwe, The Girl On The Train, The Hollars BEST LEAD ACTOR 1. (1) Casey Afffleck- Manchester By The Sea 2. (2) Denzel Washington- Fences 3. (3) Ryan Gosling- La La Land 4. (4) Warren Beatty- Rules Don't Apply 5. (9) Andrew Garfield- Silence 6. (6) Joel Edgerton- Loving 7. (5) Tom Hanks- Sully 8. (10) Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge 9. (7) Jake Gyllenhaal- Nocturnal Animals 10. (8) Miles Teller- Bleed For This 11. (14) Dev Patel- Lion 12. (11) Will Smith- Collateral Beauty 13. (12) Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic 14. (15) Ben Affleck- Live By Night 15. (17) Adam Driver- Paterson 16. (19) Robert De Niro- The Comedian 17. (13) Michael Keaton- The Founder 18. (22) Don Cheadle- Miles Ahead 19. (21) Peter Simonischek- Toni Erdmann 20. (16) Chris Pine- Hell Or High Water 21. (18) Alden Ehrenreich- Rules Don't Apply 22. (23) Brad Pitt- Allied 23. (-) Matthew McCougnaghy- Gold 24. (25) Dave Johns- I, Daniel Blake 25. (24) Chris Pratt- Passengers Other Contenders: Colin Farrell- The Lobster/ Jesse Eisenberg- Cafe Society/ Jonah Hill- War Dogs/ Lewis MacDougall- A Monster Calls/ Mark Wahlberg- Patriots Day/ Michael Shannon- Midnight Special/ Ryan Reynolds- Deadpool OUT: NA. (20) Joe Alywn- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk BEST LEAD ACTRESS 1. (1) Emma Stone- La La Land 2. (3) Natalie Portman- Jackie 3. (5) Annette Benning- 20th Century Women 4. (4) Amy Adams- Arrival 5. (6) Ruth Negga- Loving 6. (7) Jessica Chastain- Miss Sloane 7. (10) Isabelle Huppert- Elle 8. (9) Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins 9. (8) Amy Adams- Nocturnal Animals 10. (2) Viola Davis- Fences Looks very likely to be supporting 11. (14) Taraji P. Henson- Hidden Figuers 12. (12) Jennifer Lawrence- Passengers 13. (13) Kate Beckinsale- Love & Friendship 14. (11) Emily Blunt- The Girl On The Train 15. (16) Marion Cotillard- Allied 16. (15) Rebecca Hall- Christine 17. (19) Rachel Weisz- Denial 18. (17) Sally Field- Hello, My Name Is Doris 19. (18) Kristen Stewart- Cafe Society 20. (20) Lily Collins- Rules Don't Apply 21. (24) Susan Sarandon- The Meddler 22. (22) Hailee Steinfeld- The Edge Of Seventeen 23. (21) Sasha Lane- American Honey 24. (23) Mary Elizabeth Winstead- 10 Cloverfield Lane 25. (25) Madina Nalwanga- Queen Of Katwe Other Contenders: Alicia Vikander- The Light Between Oceans/ Ellen Page- Tallulah/ Felicity Jones- Rogue One: A Stars Wars Story/ Isabelle Huppert- Things To Come/ Renee Zellweger- Bridget Jones Baby/ Sandra Huller- Toni Erdmann
October 25, 20168 yr Definitely agree with you now that it seems like Amy Adams will make the cut now that Viola has likely been moved to the supporting category. Yay, hopefully will be her 6th nomination which will look fab. Oops that she probably won't win yet again though :(
October 25, 20168 yr Author Second Predicts: Supporting + Director BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. (1) Liam Neeson- Silence 2. (2) Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals 3. (3) Mahershala Ali- Moonlight 4. (6) Peter Sarsgaard- Jackie 5. (4) Aaron Eckhart- Bleed For This 6. (5) Jeff Bridges- Hell Or High Water 7. (7) Lucas Hedges- Manchester By The Sea 8. (8) John Goodman- 10 Cloverfield Lane 9. (9) Aaron Eckhart- Sully 10. (10) Alden Ehrenreich- Hail, Caesar 11. (11) Alan Rickman- Eye In The Sky 12. (12) Adam Driver- Silence 13. (13) Stephen McKinley Henderson- Fences 14. (14) Mykelti Williamson- Fences 15. (19) David Oyelowo- Queen Of Katwe 16. (16) Jeremy Renner- Arrival 17. (17) Michael Sheen- Passengers 18. (20) Vince Vaughn- Hacksaw Ridge 19. (18) Kevin Costner- Hidden Figures 20. (15) John Goodman- Patriots Day 21. (21) Ben Foster- Hell Or High Water 22. (22) Tom Bennett- Love & Friendship 23. (23) Ralph Fiennes- A Bigger Splash 24. (24) Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins 25. (8) John Legend- La La Land OTHER CONTENDERS: Andre Holland (Moonlight), Brendan Gleeson (Live By Night), Danny DeVito (The Comedian), Edgar Ramirez (Gold), Edward Norton (Collateral Beauty), Forest Whitaker (Arrival), Jovan Adepo (Fences), Steve Carrell (Cafe Society), Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight), Woody Harrelson (The Edge Of Seventeen) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. (-) Viola Davis- Fences Category Move 2. (2) Naomie Harris- Moonlight 3. (1) Michelle Williams- Manchester By The Sea 4. (3) Nicole Kidman- Lion 5. (4) Felicity Jones- A Monster Calls 6. (6) Greta Gerwig- 20th Century Women 7. (10) Helen Mirren- Eye In The Sky 8. (5) Kristen Stewart- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk 9. (14) Janelle Monae- Hidden Figuers 10. (8) Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures 11. (7) Margo Martindale- The Hollars 12. (12) Lupita N'Yongo- Queen Of Katwe 13. (18) Molly Shannon- Other People 14. (9) Elle Fanning- 20th Century Women 15. (15) Rachel Weisz- The Light Between Oceans 16. (11) Laura Linney- Nocturnal Animals 17. (13) Elle Fanning- Live By Night 18. (16) Teresa Palmer- Hacksaw Ridge 19. (19) Greta Gerwig- Jackie 20. (-) Gugu Mbatha-Raw- Miss Sloane 21. (20) Sienna Miller- Live By Night 22. (21) Michelle Monaghan- Patriots Day 23. (22) Helen Mirren- Collateral Beauty 24. (24) Leslie Mann- The Comedian 25. (25) Laura Dern- The Founder OTHER CONTENDERS: Haley Bennett (The Girl On The Train), Rooney Mara (Lion), Annette Benning (Rules Don't Apply), Chloe Sevingly (Love & Friendship), Hayley Squires (I, Daniel Blake), Kate Winslet (Collateral Beauty), Keira Knightly (Collateral Beauty), Kyra Sedgwick (The Edge Of Seventeen), Lizzy Caplan (Allied), Margaret Bowman (Hell Or High Water), Rose Byrne (The Meddler) BEST DIRECTOR 1. (1) Damien Chazelle - La La Land 2. (4) Martin Scorsese- Silence 3. (2) Denzel Washington- Fences 4. (5) Pablo Larrain- Jackie 5. (3) Denis Villenvenue- Arrival 6. (7) Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester By The Sea 7. (6) Barry Jenkins- Moonlight 8. (8) Jeff Nichols- Loving 9. (9) Mike Mills- 20th Century Women 10. (11) Garth Davis- Lion 11. (10) Tom Ford- Nocturnal Animals 12. (12) Ben Affleck- Live By Night 13. (13) J.A. Bayona- A Monster Calls 14. (14) Morten Tyldum- Passengers 15. (15) Clint Eastwood- Sully OTHER CONTENDERS: Ava DuVernay (13th), Peter Berg (Patriots Day), Robert Zemeckis (Allied), Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures), Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
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