Fantastic. I'm going to enjoy the novelty of this, for the first few days at least - having probably a top 10 FULL of Ed Sheeran. At this point I think that at least 7 of the top 10 spots will be held by him, although I'm not going to make too much of a bold claim just in case we're underwhelmed, but I do think it is POSSIBLE he could have the whole top 10.

He's going to have the top 5 at least. Top 10 isn't out of the question.

300,000 is the lowest i can see him selling, but believe he will sell nearer to 400,000.

I'm gonna go with 583k

Here are the previous opening weeks for Ed:

 

18/09/11 / + / 102,350 (Total album market: 1,565,594)

29/06/14 / X / 182,427 (Total album market: 1,395,574)

 

Taking into account the decline in album sales over that period, that is around a doubling in sales (wrt the total market) between eras.

 

If you assume a similar trend into era 3.. then with a ~20% decline in sales since June 2014 that would give around 290K sales - assuming a 50K bump from streaming that gives around 340K.

 

I will estimate 330-350K.

Interesting!

 

I'd add at least another 50-100k for how much his star has ascended further recently, unless I'm overestimating it completely. I do think it will be over 400k but we'll see.

Here are the biggest weekly sales on the album chart since 1 January 2010. Highest Q1 sale is of course Adele: 208,090 which will be smashed. The last >300K sale in Q1 was 363,735 (Arctic Monkeys debut in 2006).

 

27/11/15 800,307 25 Adele

21/11/10 518,601 PROGRESS Take That

25/12/15 449,870 25 Adele

04/12/15 439,337 25 Adele

18/12/15 376,716 25 Adele

11/12/15 353,765 25 Adele

26/12/10 350,328 PROGRESS Take That

19/12/10 330,251 PROGRESS Take That

25/12/11 317,114 CHRISTMAS Michael Buble

18/12/11 269,655 CHRISTMAS Michael Buble

03/04/11 257,731 21 Adele

01/12/13 237,388 MIDNIGHT MEMORIES One Direction

29/06/11 215,639 BORN THIS WAY Lady Gaga

21/12/14 214,451 X Ed Sheeran

28/12/14 211,168 X Ed Sheeran

30/10/11 208,343 MYLO XYLOTO Coldplay

28/11/10 208,219 PROGRESS Take That

30/01/11 208,090 21 Adele

12/12/10 203,210 PROGRESS Take That

I'm reckoning 477k!

I'm thinking ~550k, I'm pretty sure his physicals will be even bigger than we think, I mean bear in mind the album will be in all Morrisons, Sainsburys, Tescos, Asdas, probably on a stand as you walk in. Regardless, I can't see him selling anything under 475k, the hype for this album really is huge.

Edited March 2, 20178 yr by mdh

401k.

I think he will sell between 450k / 500k, I think adele's record of 800k will be safe.

Edited March 3, 20178 yr by BrookeOlivia

Album tracks only on iTunes

I said 300-350k... but after seeing everyone elses predictions and predicting over 500k... I'm not sure lmao!

Scrap that... my iTunes was just playing up

You could still be right Jonjo, We could just be over predicting :lol: Looking forward to the first midweeks thats for sure.

Certainly over 400k...

 

Maybe 550-600k region, including about 50k streaming sales.

 

I'm standing by this after the first day sales!

 

The 400k and less predictors will be way out :o

Yes, it looks like it could be somewhere near to 600K which is a lot more than I thought!