In 5 years no poll will show Leave ahead.

 

Isn't this already the case now? Hypothetical second referendum polls in recent years have all shown Remain leads afaia (some around the accursed 52/48 ratio but some even by a wider margin).

Isn't this already the case now? Hypothetical second referendum polls in recent years have all shown Remain leads afaia (some around the accursed 52/48 ratio but some even by a wider margin).

I think the key point - and I've been saying this almost since the referendum - is that the proportion of people who say they voted Leave will fall faster than would be the case simply due to demographic changes.

Let's be honest, the likelihood is within the next generation there will be another vote to join the EU, unless Brexit makes everyone else richer and better off. If the Lib Dems have any sense at all they will decide to keep it as an option so there is another vote in the next 15-20 years. It's inevitable it will happen again let's be honest.

 

The problem we have right now is those of us who voted remain just have to accept that unfortunately we are leaving and our best response is to try and influence as close a tie with the EU as possible.

I'm sure the Lib Dems will adopt a policy of rejoining the EU. Support for the EU is a fundamental part of the party's DNA. The question will be how much of a priority they give it. The lack of airtime given to the party (even in an election) means that it is difficult to get more than one policy across. for many years, that was support for PR. Then it moved on to increasing income tax to fund an increase in spending on education. In the last two elections, the focus has been on retaining EU membership. The question, then will be whether the next election will be the right time for the main focus to be on applying to rejoin the EU.

Isn't this already the case now? Hypothetical second referendum polls in recent years have all shown Remain leads afaia (some around the accursed 52/48 ratio but some even by a wider margin).

 

But a real vote is different - the campaign can and does affect it, so there's no guarantee opinion poll numbers will be reflected in actual results - surely we've learnt *that* by now!

Let's be honest, the likelihood is within the next generation there will be another vote to join the EU, unless Brexit makes everyone else richer and better off. If the Lib Dems have any sense at all they will decide to keep it as an option so there is another vote in the next 15-20 years. It's inevitable it will happen again let's be honest.

 

The problem we have right now is those of us who voted remain just have to accept that unfortunately we are leaving and our best response is to try and influence as close a tie with the EU as possible.

 

I think the biggest problem for the Eu is other members following britains path although the worst is maybe over with regards to this.

But a real vote is different - the campaign can and does affect it, so there's no guarantee opinion poll numbers will be reflected in actual results - surely we've learnt *that* by now!

 

And yet remain is heavily weighted towards the young and brexshit towards the old. The last one, leave lied, promised EVERYTHING, and cheated aaaand still only got 51%. It's all downhill for leave from here.

I think the biggest problem for the Eu is other members following britains path although the worst is maybe over with regards to this.

 

Not if we make a success of it, and either way, they'll have to absorb the loss of our large net contribution.

 

And yet remain is heavily weighted towards the young and brexshit towards the old. The last one, leave lied, promised EVERYTHING, and cheated and still only got 51%. It's all downhill for leave from here.

 

I can't understand Remainers who'd get schadenfreude from seeing the country fail, just so they can say 'I told you so'. :blink: Now the decision has been made, and confirmed by the GE result, surely we should all do our best to see it works the best it can?

I can't understand Remainers who'd get schadenfreude from seeing the country fail, just so they can say 'I told you so'. :blink: Now the decision has been made, and confirmed by the GE result, surely we should all do our best to see it works the best it can?

 

 

I can't understand them either Vid. Surely they should be giving it a chance now and seeing how we go on instead of all this doom and gloom before we've even left. It's not just Michael and those here but the same over on DS, the world according to them ends on 31st Jan. Economy and housing market crashes, shop shelves bare and we all turn on each other like zombies. :rolleyes:

Edited December 26, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

I can't understand them either Vid. Surely they should be giving it a chance now and seeing how we go on instead of all this doom and gloom before we've even left. It's not just Michael and those here but the same over on DS, the world according to them ends on 31st Jan. Economy and housing market crashes, shop shelves bare and we all turn on each other like zombies. :rolleyes:

 

DS? :unsure:

DS? :unsure:

 

 

Digital Spy forums.

There is no evidence to support your apparent assertion that there has been a shift in opinion towards Leave.

 

'Apparent ' but not actual. :mellow:

 

There is little evidence to suggest the current cohort of adults are becoming Conservative at anywhere near the correct replacement rate for the Conservatives to not face extinction.

 

You're seriously claiming that, just two weeks after a GE that greatly strengthens the Tory position? :huh:

 

I think the key point - and I've been saying this almost since the referendum - is that the proportion of people who say they voted Leave will fall faster than would be the case simply due to demographic changes.

 

What evidence do you have for this, and why do you assume such a Remain trend will inevitably continue when it hasn't before?

 

Digital Spy forums.

 

Ah.

 

I've never tried them - perhaps I should?

 

Not if we make a success of it, and either way, they'll have to absorb the loss of our large net contribution.

I can't understand Remainers who'd get schadenfreude from seeing the country fail, just so they can say 'I told you so'. :blink: Now the decision has been made, and confirmed by the GE result, surely we should all do our best to see it works the best it can?

 

You have a real problem with maths.

 

And with facts. You challenge Iz on age, when all the latest charts have shown MASSIVE AGE DISPARITIES in voting!! Come on man. Think!

I've never tried them - perhaps I should?

 

 

You should. There's a big politics section but be careful. It's easy to get banned. :rolleyes: I'm permanently banned. Have been banned 4 times now but usually wait a while, change my IP address and email and re-register. My posting style always gives me away though.

 

 

I was a legend on there as crazychris. Well some loved me and some hated me but my wacky threads always got many replies. :D I still have many bookmarked and read them again when I need a laugh.

Edited December 26, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

I think the biggest problem for the Eu is other members following britains path although the worst is maybe over with regards to this.

 

Well let's be honest if things go really well then you could imagine the likes of France and Germany really wanting to leave the project. But if things go badly it just solidifies the project.

 

I think the issue with Brexit is there are so many unknowns, nobody really knows, but a lot of people do know what the outcomes are if things slip through the net (which looks to eb the default) That's going to be the biggest problem- managing people's expectations when things go wrong.

Well let's be honest if things go really well then you could imagine the likes of France and Germany really wanting to leave the project. But if things go badly it just solidifies the project.

 

I think the issue with Brexit is there are so many unknowns, nobody really knows, but a lot of people do know what the outcomes are if things slip through the net (which looks to eb the default) That's going to be the biggest problem- managing people's expectations when things go wrong.

 

Or 'if' :mellow:

You're seriously claiming that, just two weeks after a GE that greatly strengthens the Tory position? :huh:

 

 

Yes, I am, because of every bit of demographical evidence surrounding that result. The old-young divide has over the last 4 years become the greatest indicator of political leanings in this country, greater than class, ethnic background or education and it's not good long-term news for the party on the wrong side of that divide.

 

The raw numbers of Tory voters didn't actually increase all that much. They need to find a new method of winning back the younger half of the electorate or that younger half will age into always voting and always voting against them.

 

and so we don't forget what topic we're in, the same is also broadly true of the Leave voting demographic.

Or 'if' :mellow:

 

Stuff is going to go wrong, be it through government led policy or communication. It's naive to think Brexit will be plain sailing, especially if there is such a short transition period, just everyday stuff you or me take for granted will be changed and have extra admin.

 

 

Yes, I am, because of every bit of demographical evidence surrounding that result. The old-young divide has over the last 4 years become the greatest indicator of political leanings in this country, greater than class, ethnic background or education and it's not good long-term news for the party on the wrong side of that divide.

 

The raw numbers of Tory voters didn't actually increase all that much. They need to find a new method of winning back the younger half of the electorate or that younger half will age into always voting and always voting against them.

 

and so we don't forget what topic we're in, the same is also broadly true of the Leave voting demographic.

 

Iz, sorry but this argument is straight out of the hard-left handbook and it's a load of rubbish. Haven't we been waiting for 40-50 years for older Tory voters to die off and then voye Labour? I don't believe it happens and this whole myth that climate change will make people vote Labour/Greens is complete clutching at straws. Unfortunately as human beings the majority of us are inherently selfish, hence why people vote Tory in their older years.

I contest that for many reasons, we've never had a generation go through constantly having their beliefs reaffirmed in an online space, we've also never had a massive decision that looks set to harm the young be so drastically attached to one party. Parties go extinct all the time in other countries and it's worth saying I don't think Labour is immune either to its own bad decisions. I concede that Johnson is a better leader than many other potential Tories at temporarily stemming this trend, so while he is in power he's their best shot at reversing it.

 

And 14 years of young adults having limited opportunities to own their own houses or advance their careers won't turn as many of them into Tories as the party would like. If Brexit does indeed risk an economic downturn then this demographic line will hold for the most part... and that's just the economic argument.

 

There's also culture. Big part in Tory victory here was winning the culture war of white Northerners against the world, problem is, that's certainly not a sustainable strategy against a young that are ever more progressive. The Conservatives will pay as much lip service as they think they can need to, they can also hold here if they play it right, but the damage to multiculturalism done by Brexit I believe will stick in the minds of many as a continual reminder to vote against them.

 

Like, it's not inevitable, but Tory strategists are no doubt worried, because despite the allegedly constant right-wing shift, the replacement rate has never looked so bad for them.

Let's be honest, the likelihood is within the next generation there will be another vote to join the EU, unless Brexit makes everyone else richer and better off. If the Lib Dems have any sense at all they will decide to keep it as an option so there is another vote in the next 15-20 years. It's inevitable it will happen again let's be honest.

 

 

I don't think it's inevitable at all. Well not whilst the Tories are in power. I think all the main parties will be reluctant to have another vote and why? Well because of all the chaos and division this one has caused. Once we're out and we're all used to not being in the EU any morte that'll be it.

Edited December 26, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas