This is an echo chamber because people here can actually analyse poll numbers and judge the situation accordingly? Ok.com

This is an echo chamber because people here can actually analyse poll numbers and judge the situation accordingly? Ok.com

 

 

Yes and we tend not to argue but respect other posters' opinions unlike on some other forums I frequent. :)

Early voting has now exceeded 21M.

This time in 2016 it was 1.4M.

 

There is a highly motivated electorate - who for though?

Probably Biden as people happy with the incumbent generally don't drive high turnout.

 

 

1M votes cast in North Carolina in the 1st 24hrs of early voting! That's 20% of amount of total votes cast in 2016!

Edited October 17, 20204 yr by Crazy Chris

From Daily Mail.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-88...t-inflated.html

 

"Joe Biden's campaign manager has warned supporters against complacency, adding President Trump 'can still win this race' and that recent national polls showing the candidate leading by double digits are 'inflated.'

 

In a memo obtained by Washington Post and Fox News, Campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon told supporters they shouldn't count Trump out of the race just yet.

 

'We cannot become complacent because the very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race,' Dillon wrote. 'And every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire.'

 

The election race, Dillon said, was 'far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest.'

 

'While we see robust leads at the national level, in the states we’re counting on to carry us to victory like Arizona and North Carolina we’re only up by three points.

 

'We also know that even the best polling can be wrong, and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical states we are functionally tied — and that we need to campaign like we’re trailing.'

 

National polls released this week by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist and NBC News/Wall Street Journal show Biden leading Republican President Donald Trump by 11 percent.

 

But Dillon pointed out that polls dismissed Trump during the 2016 election, which he won with the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

 

'If we learned anything from 2016, it’s that we cannot underestimate Donald Trump or his ability to claw his way back into contention in the final days of a campaign, through whatever smears or underhanded tactics he has at his disposal,' she wrote.

 

Dillon issued an additional warning in an online campaign event on Friday, saying 'please take [into account] the fact that we are not ahead by double digits,' according to New York Times reporter Shane Goldmacher.

 

'Those are inflated national public polling numbers,' Dillon added during the livestreamed 'Grassroots Summit,' video of which the campaign did not leave online.

 

 

Anyone who still supports Trump is a) thick as a plank and b) basically a fascist. Not even kidding. Have fun justifying to yourself.

This place is such an echo chamber :lol:

 

Anyway, in the most reliable polls from 2016, Trump seems to be leading in the crucial swing states. And considering how terrible they are at tracking the Trump voters, I'd say there is little chance for a Biden win, unless they manage to produce a lot of ballots for dead people. Y'all better buckle up.

 

@1317496686382510086

 

The pollsters have had four years to better target the Trump voters. Their business model relies on it. Their business model does not rely on making up dead Democrats. Sheesh.

 

From early voting signs, it seems like there's millions of early ballots being cast, I've seen up to 24 million. Could mean that Biden is ahead even from the get go.

 

~

 

aside: #democats (one point to make with this: the Biden social media team game has rarely put a foot wrong lately, genuinely impressed)

 

@1317465638953168899

@1317496686382510086

 

The pollsters have had four years to better target the Trump voters. Their business model relies on it. Their business model does not rely on making up dead Democrats. Sheesh.

 

From early voting signs, it seems like there's millions of early ballots being cast, I've seen up to 24 million. Could mean that Biden is ahead even from the get go.

 

~

 

aside: #democats (one point to make with this: the Biden social media team game has rarely put a foot wrong lately, genuinely impressed)

 

@1317465638953168899

Trump will portray this as evidence that Democrats are cheating by getting cats to register and vote.

Just seen a YT video saying some votes have been counted and leaked and Trump's winning Michigan by 2-3 points and is winning Florida by 10 points. :o Dare I hope still?

Edited October 20, 20204 yr by Crazy Chris

For the 4th week in a row the Trump campaign has canceled booked TV ads in Ohio and Iowa. Out of money or does he know something we don't?

 

"Just seen a YT video"

"Just read a mumsnet forum post"

"Just found out from an e-mail in my junk folder"

"Just got word from my wife's employer's aunt's second cousin who works in the government"

"Just read a tweet from a guy called Ben Shapiro"

"Just found out from reddit user WWG1WGATRUTH696969"

"Just clicked on a FB link from a website called 'stormfront dot com'"

"Just seen a YT video"

"Just read a mumsnet forum post"

"Just found out from an e-mail in my junk folder"

"Just got word from my wife's employer's aunt's second cousin who works in the government"

"Just read a link on Facebook from a website called 'stormfront dot com'"

 

 

LOL you're quite funny you know. Could contribute to the thread rather than just slag off one poster who does though. :rolleyes:

Edited October 20, 20204 yr by Crazy Chris

"Just seen a YT video"

"Just read a mumsnet forum post"

"Just found out from an e-mail in my junk folder"

"Just got word from my wife's employer's aunt's second cousin who works in the government"

"Just read a tweet from a guy called Ben Shapiro"

"Just found out from reddit user WWG1WGATRUTH696969"

"Just clicked on a FB link from a website called 'stormfront dot com'"

 

So accurate :D

I wouldn’t read anything into any “leaked early votes” nonsense. It’s just the same disinformation BS designed to diminish voter turnout and buy into the “polls are rigged” narrative. Especially if such things are posted by firstnamebunchofnumbers.

Just seen a scribble in a public toilet saying Trump won Florida!!1

Just seen a scribble in a public toilet saying Trump won Florida!!1

 

 

Stay out of those places. A guy came on to me once in one at St. Pancras station... :D

For the 4th week in a row the Trump campaign has canceled booked TV ads in Ohio and Iowa. Out of money or does he know something we don't?

 

The former. He's been losing money for weeks now. If he had the money, he'd be using it there, because he's on the defensive and he needs those to have a hope of winning reelection.

 

As for the 'leaked early votes', here's the actual analysis from a reputable source:

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/18/924182086/ea...strative-errors

 

Democrats have cast about 53% of the early votes, according to predictive analysis by the data firm TargetSmart, which uses voter data beyond party registration to project turnout trends. That's compared with 36% by Republicans.

 

In Michigan specifically for that analysis firm (I've seen screenshots from the same firm being bandied about by Trump supporters with different numbers, so yes, they are indeed just making stuff up), the split is D 43 R 37 - but that's party affiliation, not how they voted.

 

And of course it's all just an analytical model, no one has actually counted anything yet. I believe that would be breaking the law (not entirely up on the details of American electoral law though)

It depends on state - I was reading up on it yesterday and it hurt my head. Some states allow counting to begin this week, some start 1/11, some start 2/11 and some start 3/11 (and some accept ballots until 9/11, 10/11 and 13/11 to add extra confusion). Michigan allow processing from 2/11 so no ballots have been counted at all yet.

Just seen a scribble in a public toilet saying Trump won Florida!!1

To be fair that's about as reliable of a source as Trump himself :lol:

Edited October 20, 20204 yr by devil tin coffin

Fury in Florida as police officers guarding polling stations have been seen wearing Vote Trump masks.

One stupid redneck with a badge in Miami. Stop this constant misinformation.