not the Karens of America turning out to actually be mostly for Biden !

not the Karens of America turning out to actually be mostly for Biden !

 

And the OK Boomers too maybe because of Donald Trump's overly relaxed attitude to Covid?

 

Meanwhile, my favourite election news quote of the moment:

 

On Sunday, the president's sons Eric and Donald Trump Jr. retweeted a video which claimed a parade in Arizona stretched for more than 96 miles. That estimation has been disputed online.

 

:lol:

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by Salty Melody

I’m being slightly more bullish with my predictions - I think if Biden wins Texas he almost certainly wins Florida, North Carolina and Georgia too - they aren’t entirely in sync demographically or in their partisan bias, but all are within 1/2 points and Biden would be around 9/10 points ahead if he won Texas so it seems likely they would move in line.

 

Anyway final prediction: 389 Biden - 149 Trump

 

 

Also feeling Democratic senate wins in Colorado, Maine, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia (Regular) and Iowa for 52 seats.

I'm so nervous it's unreal.

@1323577574476423168

 

Take a look through this thread. I'm so worried/nervous. :drama:

my general feeling is that irregardless of the results, Trump will declare victory. He will decry fraudulent votes and postal votes as illegitimate even where there is no evidence whatsoever of this.

 

This will not be a peaceful transition of power (and god do I hope there will be a Biden victory). I severely doubt it will boil over into full out civil conflict - mainly because all these trump voting gun toting lifted pickup driving tiny dick rednecks are all talk and no action - but it is going to be a deeply unpleasant few weeks for the US while the results are finalised and confirmed and we stare down the barrel of an authoritarian regime taking its death breaths in the court system it has stacked with partisan judges for this very moment. Kavanaugh will come down on Trumps side, some of his recent judgements have started to lay the groundwork for this but they are filled with highly questionable legal arguments that don't hold water. Ultimately, the three Trump appointees might side with him, but I can't see the other conservative justices voting to effectively end democracy in the United States and thus, Trump will exhaust his legal options and then take to the media circus to claim a witch hunt and a hoax.

 

 

I could see the addled corpse of his presidency returning in 2024 for another go if he loses, mainly because being a 1 term president will severely hurt his ego.

 

 

I get the fears a lot of people have about this, but it takes a big stretch to go from doing what Trump has been doing (and it absolutely IS shocking, damaging and completely un-democratic) to state electors, governors, the courts etc ALL working together to discount the vast majority of votes. In general, I think the bigger risk here is not the early votes cast before 3/11, but the postal votes sent in dated on or before 3/11 that arrive in the coming weeks.

 

What I think is a more plausible version of that scenario is, if the polls are out in Trumps favour and it is a 4/5 point race - then he could well be within 1 point in a range of states - then there might be a chance of SCOTUS (or State courts) amending the rules to minimise the chance of Democrats extending their lead/overtaking due to late arriving ballots.

 

Who knows, but I haven't lost faith entirely in the process of Democracy in the US.

Ive been finding quite interesting the polling in Europe that shows who the preferred victor is. Again, the Democratic candidate wins out across the EU as Clinton did in 2016.

 

One thing I found interesting is that only 13% of Germans backed Trump and that just over ⅔ of AfD voters would back him. When 33% of *GERMANY'S* neonazi's look at you and think you're a bit much, you've got to be one hell of a demonic racist c**t. (Source)

The US seems to exist in a very odd microchosm - that it has become part of normally accepted discourse to espose openly racist, sexist idelologies is baffling. I know it's been around for a long time, but it was generally on the outer limits of the Republican party - with the 'centre ground' quite possibly agreeing with it but not actively fanning the flames. Since Obama won, and in particular his second term, it just seems like any sense of that has gone out the window entirely. It's a race to the bottom for who can disenfranchise and denegrate the greatest numbers of people.

 

Again the UK (and indeed NI) is not GREAT on this front either and of course the Anti-EU brigade share a lot of the same characteristics, but it just doesn't feel quite so VISCERAL.

I get the fears a lot of people have about this, but it takes a big stretch to go from doing what Trump has been doing (and it absolutely IS shocking, damaging and completely un-democratic) to state electors, governors, the courts etc ALL working together to discount the vast majority of votes. In general, I think the bigger risk here is not the early votes cast before 3/11, but the postal votes sent in dated on or before 3/11 that arrive in the coming weeks.

 

What I think is a more plausible version of that scenario is, if the polls are out in Trumps favour and it is a 4/5 point race - then he could well be within 1 point in a range of states - then there might be a chance of SCOTUS (or State courts) amending the rules to minimise the chance of Democrats extending their lead/overtaking due to late arriving ballots.

 

Who knows, but I haven't lost faith entirely in the process of Democracy in the US.

I think the concern is rooted in the GOP already having made manoeuvres in something like 44 states to restrict postal voting. A lot of the swing states do have republican state legislations that will absolutely be on side. Look at GA for example. There is nowhere in the western world I can think of that has such an active voter suppression operation and anti-democratic leadership than the Republican lead state of Georgia. If it looks like GA might go Blue, you can bet Jeff Bezos entire fortune every republican legislator in that state will work tooth and nail for the next 6 weeks to have every single one of the absentee/postal ballots for the democrats thrown out and discounted.

I think the concern is rooted in the GOP already having made manoeuvres in something like 44 states to restrict postal voting. A lot of the swing states do have republican state legislations that will absolutely be on side. Look at GA for example. There is nowhere in the western world I can think of that has such an active voter suppression operation and anti-democratic leadership than the Republican lead state of Georgia. If it looks like GA might go Blue, you can bet Jeff Bezos entire fortune every republican legislator in that state will work tooth and nail for the next 6 weeks to have every single one of the absentee/postal ballots for the democrats thrown out and discounted.

 

This is absolutely true and Georgia is about the best example of this - it is open and brazen and was clearly at play in 2018 with Stacy Abrams. All of the focus has (rightly) been on the top of the ticket, but downballot races could make a difference too - Democrats have a chance at ending the Republican dominance of a lot of state governments with this election so it becomes a harder sell. On the other hand lame duck senators/state office holders could just well do whatever they want. I'm just choosing to live on the side of positivity and hope. It's gone wrong so many times, it HAS to go right this time. ;)

This is absolutely true and Georgia is about the best example of this - it is open and brazen and was clearly at play in 2018 with Stacy Abrams. All of the focus has (rightly) been on the top of the ticket, but downballot races could make a difference too - Democrats have a chance at ending the Republican dominance of a lot of state governments with this election so it becomes a harder sell. On the other hand lame duck senators/state office holders could just well do whatever they want. I'm just choosing to live on the side of positivity and hope. It's gone wrong so many times, it HAS to go right this time. ;)

 

I am with you on this, I mean, the only thing I'll lose by saying it is looking dumb should the worst happen and I'm okay with that if it gives people a little more hope right now. Far better than battening down the hatches for something that is unlikely to happen.

 

Because it really is looking good, even with all of their cheating and corruption I think it to be quite unlikely that there is a result that will be disputed in any fashion that won't reveal Republican power-grabbers for what they are. Now if it gets to that point, it will get very messy and I really hope it doesn't, but things like the conservative Texan judge rejecting that ruling to toss 100k+ ballots gives me hope that there are those in positions of power that will not let ballots be thrown out to any large degree. And while some states may be corrupt and beyond help, enough of the swing states have Democrats to count all the ballots fairly, and not enough of the media is conservative enough.

 

Beyond that, the House is only going to go more blue, there's a very good chance the Senate goes blue. It's far more likely that we end up with an America heading full left with a clean blue sweep than we do Trump getting back in.

The down ticket races are why I think the states will be onside. The will have their own jobs and power to cling on to which makes them motivated enough to join in with a trump mass vote disposal operation.

 

 

I bloody hope my fears are misplaced, but I have been burned far too many times now to have any faith in either the UK or US electorate to do anything approaching the sensible thing, never mind the conservative lawmakers in either country.

I have changed my mind. I do not believe the fake polls. There are too many shy Trump voters who don't talk to pollsters or lie. Trump will win and comfortably.

 

He's holed up in the White House which you can't even see from street-level, for the huge barricades that have been erected.

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

I have changed my mind. I do not believe the fake polls. There are too many shy Trump voters who don't talk to pollsters or lie. Trump will win and comfortably.

 

What happens if the “fake” is what Trump has been saying for months?

What happens if the “fake” is what Trump has been saying for months?

 

 

Well if I'm wrong I'm wrong. I'm trying to feel positive. ;)

Fair enough, but what happens if the polls are right and it turns out Trump has been lying all along?

Well if I'm wrong I'm wrong. I'm trying to feel positive. ;)

 

What made you change your mind by the way?

 

So far I had only one real encounter with Trump supporter (and gay one after all ¯\_(ツ)_/¯) and he always believed that Trump is going to landslide, but he didn't think he was going to win in 2016 in first place!!!

Fair enough, but what happens if the polls are right and it turns out Trump has been lying all along?

 

 

I shall be very upset and disappointed as I'll know the US voters have made a big mistake but nothing I can do about it. :(

 

 

EDIT. At first in 2016, around Feb when my mum died, we were all gathered round her bed and I said to my sister that Clinton would win. Then as it got nearer I was sure Trump would get in as he was different and not a politician. I heard someone say last night that even he didn't think he'd win. :lol:

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

I shall be very upset and disappointed as I'll know the US voters have made a big mistake but nothing I can do about it. :(

 

 

that happened in 2016 dear!!!!