I think we're in for another 2011 in that the 12's will be flying all over the place and an entry that can sneak those 6/7/8's consistently will swoop in and take it. So, Sweden?

 

I don't see it for Bulgaria at ALL. Everybody I showed 'Tears Getting Sober' too last year hated it and 'Growing Up Is Getting Old' isn't as good as that!

Am I right in saying that the jury winner in 2019 (N Macedonia) and 2018 (Austria) were both unexpected/unpredicted?

Edited March 20, 20214 yr by Colm

Am I right in saying that the jury winner in 2019 (N Macedonia) and 2018 (Austria) were both unexpected/unpredicted?

At least to me they were for sure. I was expecting Arcade to be the jury winner in 2019 for sure, was surprised that N Macedonia even qualified :lol: let alone topped the jury vote!

Last year I remember observing that there seemed to be two obvious "lanes" developing with some songs clearly aiming at the jury vote and the televote and that the secret to doing well in that field would have been to be able to either do at least decently well on both or to completely storm one of them whilst the other leg is very spread out. I think there's going to be broadly similar tactics among this group of songs so I could see paths to victory for the following countries;

 

Malta - Could easily win the jury vote and I think Je Me Casse is capable of potentially winning the public vote as well. Only thing that gives me doubt is Malta have historically not been as strong on the televote in the past but we could equally say the same about Israel prior to 2018!

 

Sweden - Most likely to do a Jamala and win from a good result on both sides even if it doesn't win either. People like to make the lazy comparison to Ingrosso and Lundvik but the former was mostly crowded out in a field where Fuego and Toy scooped up all the pop votes and its not like the latter tanked with the public either. Plus it would be foolish to ignore such a runaway public vote winner in a strong Melfest final.

 

Lithuania - I think a lot of people have counted this one out but Eastern Europe could really go for it whilst the west still shows it some appreciation. Discotheque might not be the most jury friendly song ever but I think its more so than On Fire at least.

 

Iceland - Similar reasoning to Lithuania with the added factor that people might be more sympathetic to Iceland than the song itself necessarily merits as the ones who would/should have got the crown last year but were unlucky enough to have Covid screw their chances. Plus there's the known unknown of the stage performance/music video that could change the calculation. Either way there's scope for a high jury and a high public vote which could well still be enough.

 

France - Very obviously jury catnip and I also have a bit of a half tested hypothesis that I think televoters really go for songs that have that element of the competing country in them like Higher Ground being a very Viking influenced song, Spirit In The Sky being so obviously a Sami Joik/Pop Fusion, Grande Amore being quintessential Italian Pop and this really could not be anything other than French. Plus there's the potential for this to be a really striking contrast to the rest of the competition which could give it enough of a televote pull that it can win alongside a jury landslide. This is obviously highly conditional so it's at the bottom of my "winners list" but there is a path for it.

Last year I remember observing that there seemed to be two obvious "lanes" developing with some songs clearly aiming at the jury vote and the televote and that the secret to doing well in that field would have been to be able to either do at least decently well on both or to completely storm one of them whilst the other leg is very spread out. I think there's going to be broadly similar tactics among this group of songs so I could see paths to victory for the following countries;

 

Malta - Could easily win the jury vote and I think Je Me Casse is capable of potentially winning the public vote as well. Only thing that gives me doubt is Malta have historically not been as strong on the televote in the past but we could equally say the same about Israel prior to 2018!

 

Sweden - Most likely to do a Jamala and win from a good result on both sides even if it doesn't win either. People like to make the lazy comparison to Ingrosso and Lundvik but the former was mostly crowded out in a field where Fuego and Toy scooped up all the pop votes and its not like the latter tanked with the public either. Plus it would be foolish to ignore such a runaway public vote winner in a strong Melfest final.

 

Lithuania - I think a lot of people have counted this one out but Eastern Europe could really go for it whilst the west still shows it some appreciation. Discotheque might not be the most jury friendly song ever but I think its more so than On Fire at least.

 

Iceland - Similar reasoning to Lithuania with the added factor that people might be more sympathetic to Iceland than the song itself necessarily merits as the ones who would/should have got the crown last year but were unlucky enough to have Covid screw their chances. Plus there's the known unknown of the stage performance/music video that could change the calculation. Either way there's scope for a high jury and a high public vote which could well still be enough.

 

France - Very obviously jury catnip and I also have a bit of a half tested hypothesis that I think televoters really go for songs that have that element of the competing country in them like Higher Ground being a very Viking influenced song, Spirit In The Sky being so obviously a Sami Joik/Pop Fusion, Grande Amore being quintessential Italian Pop and this really could not be anything other than French. Plus there's the potential for this to be a really striking contrast to the rest of the competition which could give it enough of a televote pull that it can win alongside a jury landslide. This is obviously highly conditional so it's at the bottom of my "winners list" but there is a path for it.

 

I guess with Melfest we did get to see a lot about Tusse's background in the VT, plus a lot of Swedes already knew about him due to Idol. There will be no such context with Eurovision, I mean there will be in the press in the lead up no doubt, and I guess local commentators will mention it too, but it won't be as impactful as getting to know him over a long stretch of time.

 

So it's up to Tusse to sell a decent but also pretty 'reality winner's anthem-by-numbers' type song in three minutes - these sorts of songs often do very well in, but don't win Eurovision. Even without knowledge of his background though, he has a lot of charm, an infectious personality and a great voice, so I'm sure he'll get a lot of support, but I'd be amazed if he stormed the televote like he did in Melfest, the song itself is just a touch too formulaic I feel.

 

I do agree though that he could win by consensus by maybe winning the jury vote and coming like 3rd/4th on the televote.

 

I definitely agree on Iceland, I may place a bet on them because I think their current odds are surprisingly low at this point.

 

As for France, although it was now 12 years ago (eek), Patricia Kaas didn't do that well on the televote with a really sublime classic French chanson. So I don't know if the televoters will go that mad for something quintessentially French. Though they haven't sent anything like this for a long time now, so who knows. Maybe it's what everyone will be after, but I don't see it. I did write off Portugal 2017 quite early on though :lol:

Edited March 20, 20214 yr by gooddelta

Fair points well made Rich. The thing is that Idol winners in Melfest aren't exactly brand new and there hasn't been one before that's captured the public imagination in Melfest to this level before which tells me there's something about the combination of song and performer that has that kind of spark that makes something more than the sum of its parts. I didn't mean to suggest that Sweden will storm the televote, more that it's likely to have at least some appeal to the general/casual audience who only turn up on Saturday.

 

Re: France as much as I love Patricia Kaas, I think that song is a lot less accessible than Voila for a non-Eurovision/Francophile audience to get into (and a very poor draw didn't help) and not to be ageist but Barbara probably has more visual appeal to be able to sell the song when it comes to the final.

I agree that Voila is more accessible than Patricia was, at least for me, I love Voila and hated Patricia :lol: And Voila will get a better position in the running order no doubt as even if she draws first half, surely something tipped to do so well will be placed towards the end of the first half - but wasn't Patricia quite famous in parts of Europe? I seem to remember her being a big get for France, so she could've had some recognition factor playing into her votes and still only managed 17th in the televote.

 

Lithuania I think may be being slightly overlooked amongst the fans right now just because it was released so early compared to most of the other entries, and I could see it for them because they already have a healthy diaspora and couple that with a song which for some reason is seen as a fave, that could be enough to see them over the line. But please no.

 

Sweden, the huge public support that Tusse got could be a sign, but I struggle to see him getting over 200 points from the televote and I don't think that would be enough to win. I don't think there's "Sweden hate", that's a bit ridiculous, but I think there could genuinely be a certain amount of expectation around them now and whether that's the case or not, it's just another solid, safe entry so why would the public take to it significantly more than their last solid, safe entry two years ago.

 

I read that Senhit filmed the on tape backup performance most likely by herself, as she did it in Italy while Flo Rida was posting from Instagram in Miami. Could he not be on the 'on tape' performance but still feature in person in May? I think that would be too much of a change to be allowed.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if something like that is overlooked just because "it's Flo Rida" and what a story it is and the interest it might draw from the US if he appears on stage. But this is what I dislike about a potential mix of live on tape performances and some that are actually live from the Ahoy, those that manage to make the trip in May will have had so much longer to prepare and rehearse?

Seeing people go CRAZY over Blind Channel here (they were virtually unknown to general public prior to UMK), I can see them doing very well.

 

Voilà is my favourite by far, stunning song that sounds so good when you listen to it. It is super classy as well. Juries will love it but televoters will know a great song when they hear one.

Edited March 21, 20214 yr by Sour Candy

Ok - who's gonna be the unexpected jury winner?

 

Qualities - must be a serious song but not one that has done well at the bookies.

Ok - who's gonna be the unexpected jury winner?

 

Qualities - must be a serious song but not one that has done well at the bookies.

Wouldn’t mind it if Roxen managed this

I'm thinking someone much more unexpected like Georgia or Albania.

I'm thinking someone much more unexpected like Georgia or Albania.

Albania could definitely do it, they often times bring it hard when it comes to staging and vocal performances (still in awe over Jonida's 180 for me after the live performance) and I feel like Anxhela could very well do it.

Georgia I'm not quite so sure about. I think he'll do well with juries as the song is quite jury baity but I think his comments on Facebook will surely have made their way to at least a big enough portion of the juries to kill his chances of winning the jury vote.

Edited March 26, 20214 yr by diva thin muffin

I think one of the two "Amen" songs - I'm half-expecting at least one to be pulled into the final by the jury.

 

Otherwise I don't know if we'll get one and I think we're more likely to go back to 2016/2017 with one of the faves winning the jury, probably Malta who already are a jury darling.

If Slovenia fail to make it to the final but Albania do make it, Albania will be the only big Eurovision ballad on the night. And it's not even a will-this-do ballad. It's got a lot going on and very well punctuated by the dramatic parts.

Edited March 26, 20214 yr by Colm

I think one of the two "Amen" songs - I'm half-expecting at least one to be pulled into the final by the jury.

 

Otherwise I don't know if we'll get one and I think we're more likely to go back to 2016/2017 with one of the faves winning the jury, probably Malta who already are a jury darling.

Out of the two Amen songs I'd place my money on Austria over Slovenia for sure but then again the jury is usually so damn unpredictable :lol: Just revisiting the fact that the juries killed Switzerland 2017 still surprisese me (although it was pretty close and instead we got Denmark in the final which was one of my Top 5 :wub: ).

Remember that Switzerland 2017 had a really bad note during the Jury performance as Runa messed up the vocal.

I really dislike both of the Amens.

Remember that Switzerland 2017 had a really bad note during the Jury performance as Runa messed up the vocal.

Ohh, I didn't know that. That sucks when one bad note ruins a performance. Especially seeing as Isaiah floated through to the final after murdering the final minute or so of "Don't Come Easy" in the live performance because the juries gave it 139 points while the televoters paid it absolute dust lmao. It feels kinda off that the juries and televoters are judging based on separate performances although I guess I understand why they need to do it this way.

I understand why they need to do it this way.

 

 

Why do they need to do it that way? Is it a logistical problem with not having enough time to compile and verify the jury's votes if they do it on the Saturday night?

Edited March 26, 20214 yr by Colm

Why do they need to do it that way? Is it a logistical problem with not having enough time to compile and verify the jury's votes if they do it on the Saturday night?

I think it's to do with time management, so that they don't have to rush to collect the jury votes after the performances although there could easily be a system for this. The jury shouldn't really need more than 10 minutes to rank the songs after they finish performing if they just have a convenient system set up that is easy to work with and if they score them and tentatively rank them while they perform and then reorder them to their satisfaction after the final performance. Although I'm not entirely sure and the reasoning could be something else entirely.