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Padam Padam Week 3 Predictions 34 members have voted

  1. 1. How Will Things go on week 3.

    • It will climb.
      30
    • It will drop.
      3
    • It will be a non mover.
      0

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Saw it mentioned earlier on SH that the physical figure hasn’t changed since yesterday.

:cry: I really hope they get the CD back in stock pronto, there's clearly still demand for it!

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I will use this thread for this Padam Padam's midweeks summary. Thank you Dawid again for sharing a lot of this data with us! :heart:

 

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WEEK 3:

 

Sunday 4th June - first look

#6

 

Monday 5th June - midweek

#11 (-5)

Overall Sales: 8,824

CD Sales: 1,952 (22.12%)

Download Sales [Approximate, not official]: ~1,059 (12%)

Streaming Sales [Approximate, not official]: ~5,824 (66% = 65% Audio Streaming + 1% Video Streaming)

 

^ Note: We don't have accurate percentages of Downloads and Streaming, they were given as rounded numbers. Technically downloads could be somewhere between 11.5% (1,015 downloads) or 12.49% (1,103 downloads). Streaming could be somewhere between 65.5% (5,780) or 66.49% (5,868).

 

If you take away the CD sales, Padam Padam would have been on 6,872 sales overall on Monday 5th June.

 

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WEEK 2:

 

Sunday 28th May - first look

#18

 

Monday 29th May - midweek

No update due to bank holiday

 

Tuesday 30th May - midweek

#24

Overall Sales: 8,033

Download Sales: 1,801

Streaming Sales: 6,232

 

Wednesday 31st May - midweek

#24 (=)

Overall Sales: 9,558 (+1,525)

Download Sales: 2,130 (+329)

Streaming Sales: 7,428 (+1,196)

 

Thursday 1st June - midweek

#24 (=)

Overall Sales: 11,680 (+2,122)

Download Sales: 2,453 (+323)

Streaming Sales: 9,227 (+1,799)

 

Friday 2nd June - final official chart position

#23 (+1)

Overall Sales: 15,788 (+4,108)

Download Sales: 2,811 (+358)

Streaming Sales: 12,977 (+3,750)

 

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WEEK 1:

 

Sunday 21st May - first look

#21

Overall Sales: 2,843

 

Monday 22nd May - midweek

#26 (-5)

Overall Sales: 4,897 (+2,054)

Download Sales: 1,357

Streaming Sales: 3,532

 

Tuesday 23rd May - midweek

#27 (-1)

Overall Sales: 6,305 (+1,408)

Download Sales: 1,630 (+273)

Streaming Sales: 4,667 (+1,135)

 

Wednesday 24th May - midweek

#27 (=)

Overall Sales: 8,208 (+1,903)

Download Sales: 2,192 (+562)

Streaming Sales: 6,001 (+1,334)

 

Thursday 25th May - midweek

#28 (-1)

Overall Sales: 10,081 (+1,873)

Download Sales: 2,572 (+380)

Streaming Sales: 7,487 (+1,486)

 

Friday 26th May - final official chart position

#26 (+2)

Overall Sales: 14,649 (+4,568)

Download Sales: 4,601 (+2,029)

Streaming Sales: 10,048 (+2,561)

 

 

 

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Friday chart/sales comparisons:

 

Friday 26th May - final official chart position

#26

Overall Sales: 14,649

Download Sales: 4,601

Streaming Sales: 10,048

 

Friday 2nd June - final official chart position

#23 (+3)

Overall Sales: 15,788 (+1,139)

Download Sales: 2,811 (-1,790)

Streaming Sales: 12,977 (+2,929)

 

Combined sales from 2 weeks [Note: does not include the sales it achieved on its release date of Thursday 18th May 2023]:

2 weeks overall sales: 30,437

2 weeks download sales: 7,412

2 weeks streaming sales: 23,025

OMG i love your posts! Thx for The info ❤️❤️
  • Author
Saw it mentioned earlier on SH that the physical figure hasn’t changed since yesterday.

Hopefully it gets sorted andcthey get more out.

  • Author
Well most of us are now guaranteed to have made the right prediction here, When i started the thread Top 10 wasnt even on my radar but Padam Padam has once again managed to surprise us all.

WEEK 3:

 

Tuesday 6th June - midweek

#10 (+1)

Overall Sales: 10,882 (+2,058)

CD Sales: 2,277 (+325)

Download Sales: 1,351

Streaming Sales: 7,254

 

Comparison to last Tuesday (30th May):

Overall Sales: 8,033

Download Sales: 1,801

Streaming Sales: 6,232

 

 

For the past 2 weeks, her streaming sales on Tuesday ended up being less than half of the streaming total she achieves for Friday's chart.

 

Week 1: Tue 23rd May streaming sales: 4,667, which was 46.4% of its eventual streaming total of 10,048.

Week 2: Tue 30th May streaming sales: 6,232, which was 48.0% of its eventual streaming total of 12,977.

Week 3: Tue 6th June streaming sales: 7,254... let's arbitrarily say that this would also be 48% of its streaming total by Friday... that would take this week's total streaming sales to: 15,113.

 

She has sold 2,277 CDs and 1,351 downloads so far... adding that to 15,113 would take her to 18,741. That's if she didn't sell another CD or download on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Which she obviously will.

 

1,351 downloads in 4 days... well, if you divide by 4 and times by 7 to have a week of downloads, then that's 2,364 downloads. Taking her total to 19,754.

 

CDs... well it's anybody's guess how many she could sell in the next few days. But if she replicated the 325 she sold on Monday, over the next 3 days, then that would be 975 more copies. Lifting her potential weekly total to 20,729. But it probably won't be that consistent. She might add considerably more CDs on one day but then hardly any on another day.

 

It really depends on what sort of boost she could have in pure sales from the campaigning. Maybe it could be pushed to 21k.

 

I did some other rough calculations based on the midweeks data that was shared on Twitter. The results of this had 12 songs selling over 22k - the #10 estimate being 22.7k. With Kylie at #13 with 20.7k, well behind the #12 on 22.2k. Dua Lipa #14 with 20.6k and Beyoncé #15 with 18.9k. So that suggests a Top 15 outcome for Kylie... but this is without taking into account the new Dave songs, which have potential to cause an upset considering how strong his streaming is.

 

By my reckoning then, Kylie needs to conjure up 2k more sales than the projection (unless the CDs and Downloads have a considerably larger boost than I've forecasted). The only solution, as far as I can see, is BMG releasing new downloads, i.e. remixes. Give the hardcore fans something else to buy, and make up the potential sales difference. If they had the Instrumental and an Acapella as store exclusives, then maybe Top 10 would be possible. Unless two Dave songs overtake her anyway, lol.

 

I know this post is incredibly :mathswoman:... :lol: but hey, it's quite exciting that her weekly total could very well exceed 20k this week. It's just frustrating that it seems to be a "so close, yet so far" situation. BMG really do need to react if they want this Top 10 this week.

Love the detail as always.

 

Agree if BMG are going to drop something it needs to be sharpish, the core fans are just waiting for something to be able to buy, they don’t even need to drop a remix if they want to save them for another week, like you said give us an acapella and instrumental - we’ll buy any old rubbish :lol:

Great breakdown Jay….there are so many variations with streaming data each day but your summary accounts for it.

 

I’m just thankful she has the base streams to put her in contention….despite being so supported on Apple and bobbling around the top 50 on Spotify it just demonstrates how hard it is for a track to chart high in the streaming era.

WEEK 3:

 

Sunday 4th June - first look

#6

 

Monday 5th June - midweek

#11 (-5)

Overall Sales: 8,824

CD Sales: 1,952 (22.12%)

Download Sales: Not revealed (12%)

Streaming Sales: Not revealed (66% = 65% Audio Streaming + 1% Video Streaming)

 

Tuesday 6th June - midweek

#10 (+1)

Overall Sales: 10,882 (+2,058)

CD Sales: 2,277 (+325)

Download Sales: 1,351

Streaming Sales: 7,254

 

Wednesday 7th June - midweek

#10 (=)

Overall Sales: 13,908 (+3,026)

CD Sales: 2,293 (+16)

Download Sales: 1,731 (+380)

Streaming Sales: 9,884 (+2,630)

 

The daily increase in Padam Padam's streaming and its overall sales is the largest we've seen in a midweek update so far! (From the data we've seen, at least).

 

Week 1 & 2 here: http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?s...t&p=7361059

Streaming gained a lot!

 

I’d say on Friday we will have around 16-17k on streaming, 2.5-3k downloads, 3k CDs. Overall 22-23k. Ugh, so many weeks it would BY FAR been enough to reach the top-10. 🥲

Streaming gained a lot!

 

I’d say on Friday we will have around 16-17k on streaming, 2.5-3k downloads, 3k CDs. Overall 22-23k. Ugh, so many weeks it would BY FAR been enough to reach the top-10. 🥲

I agree, based on the latest update, it does seem she could actually push it to 22k+? (Which is way above what I thought a few days ago :o ). I think it all comes down to the CDs and how much of a boost they'll provide. I hope BMG gets everything shipped and accounted for before tomorrow afternoon.

 

It is so typical that sales have increased compared to some weeks ago :cry: Kylie's doing so incredibly well to hold up in such a strong market right now. 22k-23k was enough for #6/#7 in some weeks in April. :cry:

#11 would be so bittersweet... on the one hand this would be her highest position in 12 years, but on the other hand... well, it's #11 :lol: The most frustrating position of all!
What’s the deadline that streams and downloads count toward this week’s chart?

Downloads, tomorrow at 11:59pm GMT. Streams, in effect tonight because Thursday's data will be 'estimated'/'upweighted' in line with Friday—Wednesday for most platforms.

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With the weighting do they take the weekly average or does the percentage of increase/decrease throughout the week come into play?
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