Posted April 15, 20241 yr We have all the songs, the running orders and some pre-party performances to go off, so I think it's about time we have a predictions thread! Semi 1 Cyprus: Silia Kapsis - Liar Serbia: Teya Dora - Ramonda Lithuania: Silvester Belt - Luktelk Ireland: Bambie Thug - Doomsday Blue Ukraine: Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil - Teresa & Maria Poland: Luna - The Tower Croatia: Baby Lasagna - Rim Tim Tagi Dim Iceland: Hera Björk - Scared of Heights Slovenia: Raiven - Veronika Finland: Windows95man - No Rules! Moldova: Natalia Barbu - In the Middle Azerbaijan: Fahree feat. Ilkin Dovlatov - Özünlə apar Australia: Electric Fields - One Milkali (One Blood) Portugal: Iolanda - Grito Luxembourg: Tali - Fighter Semi 2 Malta: Sarah Bonnici - Loop Albania: Besa - Titan Greece: Marina Satti - Zari Switzerland: Nemo - The Code Czechia: Aiko - Pedestal Austria: Kaleen - We Will Rave Denmark: Saba - Sand Armenia: Ladaniva - Jako Latvia: Dons - Hollow San Marino: Megara - 11:11 Georgia: Nutsa Buzaladze - Firefighter Belgium: Mustii - Before the Party's Over Estonia: 5miinust and Puuluup - (Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi Israel: Eden Golan - Hurricane Norway: Gåte - Ulveham Netherlands: Joost Klein - Europapa
April 15, 20241 yr Author Semi 1 Safe Croatia: Baby Lasagna - Rim Tim Tagi Dim Ukraine: Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil - Teresa & Maria Lithuania: Silvester Belt - Luktelk Likely in Poland: Luna - The Tower Luxembourg: Tali - Fighter Finland: Windows95man - No Rules! Cyprus: Silia Kapsis - Liar Borderline in Ireland: Bambie Thug - Doomsday Blue Portugal: Iolanda - Grito Slovenia: Raiven - Veronika -- Borderline out Serbia: Teya Dora - Ramonda Unlikely Iceland: Hera Björk - Scared of Heights Australia: Electric Fields - One Milkali (One Blood) Dead on arrival Moldova: Natalia Barbu - In the Middle Azerbaijan: Fahree feat. Ilkin Dovlatov - Özünlə apar I'm pretty confident that it's eleven songs fighting for ten spots in the first semi-final really. Azerbaijan makes no impact and Moldova is so dull that I think no amount of staging can save this song, I think they're both chanceless. Australia is the kind of thing that I think appeals to fans more than the general public, and even the fans don't seem to be that on board with this song, but they can do really good staging which I think could help them sneak in given they've got a good spot in the running order. Iceland seems to be one of the least favourites across the board, but Hera is a great performer which is why I don't think it's DOA. Then again, it is directly after Croatia... Bambie Thug has had a brilliant reaction from pre-party performances which I'm hoping is enough to see Ireland in, of course the song massively stands out as well. There's definitely not room for all of Portugal, Serbia and Slovenia so I'm basing this entirely off running order. Semi 2 Safe Switzerland: Nemo - The Code Netherlands: Joost Klein - Europapa Belgium: Mustii - Before the Party's Over Austria: Kaleen - We Will Rave Greece: Marina Satti - Zari Likely in Norway: Gåte - Ulveham Israel: Eden Golan - Hurricane Georgia: Nutsa Buzaladze - Firefighter Borderline in Armenia: Ladaniva - Jako Denmark: Saba - Sand -- Borderline out Albania: Besa - Titan Estonia: 5miinust and Puuluup - (Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi Unlikely Czechia: Aiko - Pedestal Malta: Sarah Bonnici - Loop Latvia: Dons - Hollow Dead on arrival San Marino: Megara - 11:11 San Marino is the only one here that would be a real shock if it qualified, but sadly I think Latvia will be extending the NQ streak as the fans don't seem that enthused and I think it would do better with juries. Malta I think is very unlikely, but she's a good performer and opening a semi-final isn't a bad slot, so if she really slays the choreography, maybe. Czechia maybe should be dead given they're between Switzerland and Austria, but I've heard that the vocals have improved and I think it's a decent song, so I don't think it's quite DOA. Estonia I think is too noisy and anyone looking for a fun entry isn't finding it with Estonia will probably be voting for the Netherlands instead. Albania sweetie, I think you took yourselves out with the revamp.
May 5, 20241 yr Guess it's now or never on the Semi Final predictions! Semi One Definite IN Ukraine Croatia Finland Lithuania Televote wise, all of these are safely in. I'd say Ukraine would be the most likely winner of the Semi given the voting demographics of this group but Croatia could beat them in the Saturday night vote. Likely IN Luxembourg Portugal Ireland I'm very bullish on Portugal in particular but looking at the rehearsal clips it's by far and away the most impactful entry in the last part of the show. Likewise with what can be seen in Ireland's staging. I'd be lying if I said I was the most vocal Luxembourg supporter but I think on balance they'd have to go spectacularly wrong to not get at least 10th place. Borderline IN Cyprus All season long I've assumed this would have been through but the rehearsal clip has been underwhelming and now that we know the opening of Semi One is going to feature SloMo AND Fuego I worry that this will feel lacking and/or amateur by comparison. Battle 1 Serbia/Slovenia So my hypothesis is that only one out of Serbia or Slovenia will qualify. Serbia has the bigger neighbour vote, better staging while Slovenia has the better running order and (IMO) song. I've edged in Slovenia but fully prepared to see the opposite happen. Battle 2 Poland/Australia Then comes the battle for the tenth spot. Again, Poland has the bigger voting bloc while Australia has the better draw. With regard to staging and song I'd call them both very level with each other so I've gone for Australia by a cat's whisker, especially if Poland are going to serve nocals like that rehearsal clip. Likely OUT Azerbaijan Iceland Moldova Iceland and Moldova are both giving "minimum viable entry" teas and Azerbaijan have too feeble a song to cut through this semi. TLDR: (Scoreboard version) 01 Ukraine 02 Croatia 03 Lithuania 04 Finland 05 Ireland 06 Portugal 07 Luxembourg 08 Cyprus 09 Slovenia 10 Australia 11 Poland 12 Serbia 13 Azerbaijan 14 Moldova 15 Iceland
May 5, 20241 yr Semi Two Definite IN Switzerland Netherlands Israel All three of these will have enough supporters to get them into at least 10th place (regrettably for the discourse in one case). I think Netherlands could pip Switzerland for the televote to win the Semi. Likely IN Norway Armenia Belgium Greece Austria Georgia Let the record reflect I was never a Belgium naysayer! All six of these have enough strength in song, performance and/or neighbour support to get through. Dogfight Malta Albania Denmark Estonia Really hard to call this one. Nobody can deny Malta are throwing everything they have at this one but it could possibly be too much. A similar story is going on with Estonia where actually it could be a bit too much plus Armenia is very much in the same lane as this one. Albania isn't good enough of a song to qualify but basically all of their diaspora countries are voting in Semi 2 PLUS the Rest of the World which I imagine is disproportionately Montenegro/North Macedonia votes in the semis could see this get 40+ points just by showing up. I went with Denmark as the 10th place qualifier though on the balance of having the least holding it back and (credit to Rob on this one) I buy the idea that there's an untapped market for something more "good and safe" to cut through all the wacko jacko going on in this semi. Likely OUT Czechia San Marino Latvia Despite putting them all down here I don't think its impossible that one of these three makes the biggest of all shocks, especially if all four of Malta/Albania/Denmark/Estonia fall short. Again, TLDR: 01 Netherlands 02 Switzerland 03 Greece 04 Armenia 05 Israel 06 Norway 07 Belgium 08 Austria 09 Georgia 10 Denmark 11 Albania 12 Estonia 13 Malta 14 Czechia 15 San Marino 16 Latvia
May 5, 20241 yr My Q predictions: SF1: Cyprus, Serbia, Lithuania, Ireland, Ukraine, Croatia, Slovenia, Azerbaijan, Portugal, Luxembourg SF2: Malta, Greece, Switzerland, Armenia, San Marino, Georgia, Belgium, Israel, Norway, Netherlands I'm making a big bet here and that's Finland to NQ. Everyone's saying they should qualify easily but all of the reactions I saw with Finland are negative so I feel like it's going to be a case of "everyone thinking this will qualify but nobody liking this actually", and people won't be mad at all about it NQing. Then, I've put Slovenia over Poland because Slovenia has an epic song and it is a lot more instant than Poland in the recap. While Poland has a lot of diaspora, I fear there are simply a lot better songs in quality to vote for, and the staging we are seeing at the moment doesn't look promising. Azerbaijan is my wild card as it appears there is going to be a wow moment and the staging seems decent. Semi-final 2 might seem easy to predict but I'd like to think this is a lot more open than the odds suggest. There are a lot of girlbop in this semi but I fear Austria might be the victim based on Kaleen being the weakest vocally here. Malta has pretty much qualified only on girlbop and I think they should be able to qualify with the staging they have, and the song itself is quite strong imo. My wild card goes to San Marino as the staging looks very promising. I think this will stick with many people and I'm sure the recap slot they pick will stand out too. They are definitely one to watch. Estonia I think probably got overshadowed by Armenia and the staging doesn't look promising either.
May 11, 20241 yr 1st. Israel 2nd. Croatia 3rd. Switzerland 4th. France 5th. Ukraine 6th. Italy 7th. Ireland 8th. Armenia 9th. Finland 10th. Lithuania 11th. Cyprus 12th. Greece 13th. Georgia 14th. Portugal 15th. Norway 16th. United Kingdom 17th. Serbia 18th. Sweden 19th. Luxembourg 20th. Latvia 21st. Estonia 22nd. Spain 23rd. Slovenia 24th. Austria 25th. Germany
May 11, 20241 yr 1st Ireland 2nd Croatia 3rd Ukraine 4th Israel 5th Switzerlans 18th France 22ndish UK Laat place Germany or Spain
May 11, 20241 yr I'm going in wishful for Ireland 01 Ireland 02 Croatia 03 Israel 04 Switzerland 05 France. Il be disappointed if Ireland at the least are not solid top 10. UK I think will struggle but hoping it can at least sneak top 20. Edited May 11, 20241 yr by Crown_The_Witch.
May 11, 20241 yr 01 Croatia 02 Israel 03 Switzerland 04 France 05 Ukraine 06 Italy 07 Lithuania 08 Ireland 09 Serbia 10 Greece 11 Sweden 12 United Kingdom 13 Portugal 14 Armenia 15 Estonia 16 Georgia 17 Finland 18 Cyprus 19 Norway 20 Slovenia 21 Latvia 22 Austria 23 Luxembourg 24 Spain 25 Germany
May 11, 20241 yr 1. Croatia 2. Isreal 3. France 4. Switzerland 5. Ukraine 6. Ireland 7. Lithuania 8. Portugal 9. Italy 10. Greece 11. Sweden 12. Armenia 13. Serbia 14. Norway 15. United Kingdom 16. Georgia 17. Latvia 18. Estonia 19. Finland 20. Austria 21. Cyprus 22. Spain 23. Germany 24. Slovenia 25. Luxembourg
May 11, 20241 yr Can't do all of them but I think 1. Croatia 2. Switzerland 3. Israel 4. Ukraine 5. Ireland Bottom 5 Germany UK Spain Luxembourg Austria
May 11, 20241 yr MY PREDICTIONS 1. Croatia 2. Israel 3. Switzerland 4. Ukraine 5. Italy 6. France 7. Ireland 8. Estonia 9. Norway 10. Lithuania 11. Finland 12. Armenia 13. Serbia 14. Greece 15. Georgia 16. Portugal 17. Cyprus 18. Sweden 19. Latvia 20. Austria 21. Slovenia 22. United Kingdom 23. Luxembourg 24. Spain 25. Germany
May 11, 20241 yr Top 5 1.Ireland. 2.Ukraine. 3.Israel. 4.Croatia. 5.France. Bottom 5 21 United Kingdom. 22 Luxembourg. 23 Slovenia. 24 Germany. 25 Austria.
May 11, 20241 yr 1 Croatia 2 Israel 3 Switzerland 4 Italy 5 Ireland 6 Ukraine 7 Finland 8 Norway 9 France 10 Sweden 21 Spain 22 Luxembourg 23 UK 24 Slovenia 25 Germany Edited May 11, 20241 yr by Jason
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