Well it’s interesting.

 

Survation MRP has it

 

46% labour

35% Green

 

Win probability 76% labour

24% green

 

Yougov have it

52% green

34% labour

 

Which just shows you how MRP’s small sample can create wild differences

 

Labrokes have it

1/3 greens 9/4 labour

 

BetFred have it

2/7 greens 9/4 labour

 

Definitely seems like green will take it unless there is a massive labour turnout tomorrow which there might be

 

 

 

Just over 24 hours to go until we get the exit poll.

 

Will be interesting to see if it reflects the polls this time round or if there's any surprises in store.

Bristol Central is my constituency and while I don't think it's a definite yet, things are looking pretty good for the Greens imo! The student vote is massively pro-Green (in my flat we've stuck a Vote Green poster to our window!) and we've had more election leaflets from them than anyone else. Their ads are all over social media and I'm seeing a lot of fellow students beyond my close friends posting "if you're in Bristol Central vote green!" on stories. They've really been emphasising their stance on Gaza and renters' rights which really seem to be the main issues students care about atm. Just depends on what the rest of the electorate think!

So what leaflets have you had through this time round? Considering I live in a safe seat I've been surprised to get a leaflet from each of Reform, the Greens, the Lib Dems and Labour through the campaign. Labour also knocked on the door. Nothing for the Tories - but that's to be expected in an area they've absolutely no chance of winning - the final YouGov MRP poll has them 5th behind Labour, Reform, the Lib Dems and the Greens.

 

I'd imagine people in more marginal seats will have had more election leaflets or door-knocking?

I’m in Chelmsford - I’ve had a load of leaflets from the Lib Dem’s and one from Labour, Tory, Reform and an independent

 

I think theres a chance we’ll flip from Tory to Lib Dem. Going by the amount of Lib Dem signs there seems to be quite. A bit of support… But we’ll see :D

I’d say it’s quite likely. Unfortunately, she is one of relatively few Shadow ministers to have genuine experience in her department. It is, of course, possible that Starmer could simply move her to the Lords.

 

Would be quite the lose for Labour on what will likely be a successful night as she’s been a high profile figure this parliament!

Bristol Central is my constituency and while I don't think it's a definite yet, things are looking pretty good for the Greens imo! The student vote is massively pro-Green (in my flat we've stuck a Vote Green poster to our window!) and we've had more election leaflets from them than anyone else. Their ads are all over social media and I'm seeing a lot of fellow students beyond my close friends posting "if you're in Bristol Central vote green!" on stories. They've really been emphasising their stance on Gaza and renters' rights which really seem to be the main issues students care about atm. Just depends on what the rest of the electorate think!

 

Are most of the students not away home though?

I think theres a chance we’ll flip from Tory to Lib Dem. Going by the amount of Lib Dem signs there seems to be quite. A bit of support… But we’ll see :D

 

As much as I wish that had a bearing on popularity, I just don’t think many Tory voters would want to publicise their support with signs outside their house. :lol:

I've received 2 letters directly addressed to me from our Labour candidate and I've seen leaflets popped through the letterbox from Labour, Lib Dems and Reform but not from the Tories (or Green), although to be fair I've not been monitoring everything we receive so we might well have got more than what I've seen.

 

Despite the overall numbers on the last YouGov MRP poll going up for Labour and down for the Tories again, my own constituency has moved back down from 'leans Labour' to 'tossup' (with a ~2.4% Labour lead). I know the projections for individual seats from the MRP will have big margins of error and should be taken with a large pinch of salt but still a bit gutted at that - I'm not worried at all about the outcome of the election overall as polls would need to be absolute garbage for it to not be a Labour majority but I would really like to finally be free of having a Tory MP myself please x

 

(For what it's worth I've seen quite a lot of signs up in the wild supporting our Labour candidate and nothing for any other party - but then I don't go out to the rural parts of the constituency where the Tories' support will be mostly coming from. Also saw plenty of signs supporting the Lib Dems around my workplace in the Henley and Thame constituency which is looking good to flip to LD).

 

I actually have a job interview at 9:15am on Friday so I'm gonna have to be responsible and not stay up too late tomorrow night unfortunately - I'm sure I'll spend the whole day when I get back from it poring over all the results though x

Are most of the students not away home though?

The majority I know are still in the city! Most tenancies for student rentals outside of purpose-built halls (so therefore, pretty much anyone apart from the incoming freshers and international students) start 1st July, so they'll all have addresses in the constituency to vote from if they choose to. I can't speak for everyone obviously but I know a lot of people have chosen to vote here rather than their home address due to the prospect of an MP that aligns more with their views!

Actually just noticed my parents have kept a little stack of the leaflets we've received next to the door, although the Reform one I saw before is conspicuously missing and there's still nothing from the Tories there so maybe they're just not keeping those ones :lol: (I'm not sure who anyone else in my family is voting for, I think my mum is usually a Green voter, my dad has historically usually been a Tory voter but I believe he voted Labour last time, and my nan who has recently moved in with us has always voted Tory in the past but whenever the topic of politics comes up here recently she says she's sick of all of the parties at the moment). We have had quite a few from both Labour and the Lib Dems and did get one from the Greens too. Looking at the Lib Dem leaflet is concerning me though - they're trying to push the narrative that they're the Tories' closest competition here based on local election results which completely contradicts every MRP projection which have them in 4th place behind Reform. If we end up with the Tories scraping through because of Labour and Lib Dems splitting the (sane) anti-Tory vote too much...

Honestly I'm excited to be voting for the winner this time!

That said the Lib Dems really impressed me this campaign & I thought on a lot of occasions did the best in the debates and pitches. Sadly the candidate in my area has no chance of getting in.

I'm all in for Ed Davey as Leader of the Opposition pls x

Polls are open let's go

 

Had leaflets from every party, we don't have Reform in my constituency but the English Democrats have stepped up to take the racist nutter role instead. Tory candidate is trying to paint herself as a woman of the people and local area with Conservatives and blue nearly but not entirely absent from the leaflets (she'll probably win), Lib Dem candidate is using bar graphs that show him potentially winning but any non-partisan tactical voting site is unclear and generally has Labour in 2nd place rather than LDs if not far ahead, Labour leaflet is light on detail but easy to understand, anecdotally I've seen Green posters absolutely everywhere but no sense that they're going to do well here outside of people who've called up the candidate and asked for a board (at least 10 in my immediate local area on strategically placed roads).

 

anyway I'm voting Labour later today, made my decision. Got a long election night planned ahead and I hope I stay awake for all of it.

I’ve had two leaflets from the Tory candidate and one from Labour, nothing else. My constituency has historically been blue but this time it’s a toss-up between the Conservatives and Labour (the gap has been shrinking between the two in the MRP polls, down to just a 1% gap in the last one…) so I’m going to vote tactically, even if my heart is not in it as much as when I previously voted Labour.

 

Happy polling day ^_^ no all-nighter for me due to work but looking forward to seeing what’s happened when I wake up. It feels crazy that I was 12 when the Tories began their current run in power, very much ready for that to be over…

Voted! :cheer: Tonight is going to be eventful!!

As much as I wish that had a bearing on popularity, I just don’t think many Tory voters would want to publicise their support with signs outside their house. :lol:

Loosely related but I remember Lee Nelson (the comedian) doing a routine on TV and asked an older gentleman in the audience "who did you vote for?" (with no prior context).

 

He said "Tories", leading to some boos from the audience. Lee Nelson goes "I'm talking about The X Factor".

 

That was 2013. I imagine that would be more unpopular now!

I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out. I was also 12 the last time Labour was in power.

 

The country deserves to heal from the damage inflicted over the years.

As much as I wish that had a bearing on popularity, I just don’t think many Tory voters would want to publicise their support with signs outside their house. :lol:

 

Yeah that is true.

 

I have seen 2 Tory signs up - but doesn't actually mention the Conservatives, just signs for Vicky Ford