Posted July 5, 2024Jul 5 It's time for change.. The next UK General Election must be held on or before 9 July 2029 - in the last iteration of this thread the Tories were polling at near 50% at times, but they've just polled their lowest percentage in a UK general election ever.. basically since 1835. So when everyone has sobered up... in the meantime, please continue to post and discuss the latest Opinion Polls here.
July 5, 2024Jul 5 Going to be hard to take any polling seriously when they were all over-estimating Labour's vote share by around 10% this time. No doubt we'll eventually forget about that but something to keep in mind.
July 5, 2024Jul 5 ^ the YouGov MRP projection was, once again, nearly spot on though! (Also Labour's overall numbers in the regular polls were taking a noticeable dip in the last days of the campaign)
July 5, 2024Jul 5 It's time for change.. The next UK General Election must be held on or before 9 July 2029 - in the last iteration of this thread the Tories were polling at near 50% at times, but they've just polled their lowest percentage in a UK general election ever.. basically since 1835. So when everyone has sobered up... in the meantime, please continue to post and discuss the latest Opinion Polls here. It’s a bit later than that. The five-year limit is the time between the parliament first sitting and it being dissolved.
July 6, 2024Jul 6 This parliament could have went into to 27/1/25 is that right? Not sure if that is the exact date, but it was definitely late January.
July 7, 2024Jul 7 Author Yes, sorry you are right - 9 July 2029 is the date that Parliament must be dissolved by.. meaning the election could be held as late as 15 August 2029. Yep most of the polling appears to have overestimated the Labour vote but I wonder if tactical voting has skewed things quite a bit, or maybe there was quite a bit of shift in the final few days of the campaign? Having said this when the PNS was given following the Local Elections in May they were projecting around a 9pc point gap between Labour and Conservatives (34% v 25%) and I think that's where a lot of the hung Parliament talk came from. YouGov adjusted their method and appeared to get closer to the final result, their MRP had Con:108/Lab:425/LibD:67/SNP:20 which wasn't too bad in the end. In reality both the Labour (1 MP for every 24,000 votes) and Lib Dem (1 MP for every 49,000 votes) vote was highly efficient, e.g. not wasting huge numbers of votes in safe seats and concentrating increases in vote share in seats where they finished or were projected to finish in 2nd place. The result is we have the most disproportionate election in history! @1809663782181831135
December 5, 2024Dec 5 New poll puts Labour in 3rd. The caveat being I’ve never heard of the polling company @1864671867132322198
February 6Feb 6 @1887535857663357394 Pretty bad numbers for Kemi to be 11 points behind reform. I’m sure she has qualities but she is clearly not a leader
February 6Feb 6 I still reckon we'll end up with a combined Tory/ Reform far right paryy at some point. They'll be as bad as the Republicans.
February 6Feb 6 FindoutnowUK is majorly giving me the same vibes as the Republican pollsters who flooded the zone back in late September last year, a new poll every week, all with Reform further ahead than any other pollster at the time. Then the other pollsters catch up. I'm not saying they're a new startup outfit whose mission is to send out polls with methodology that mildly favours Reform* to make them appear popular, such that they become more and more mainstream over the lifetime of this parliament as each poll of theirs gets new news articles about them reaching new heights, but I'm also not not saying that. *their method of squeezing Don't Knows does do this, as Reform voters tend to be more certain to vote.
February 6Feb 6 I still reckon we'll end up with a combined Tory/ Reform far right paryy at some point. They'll be as bad as the Republicans. Can't see it myself -the Conservative brand is too strong. I think what is more likely is they concede the far right and move back to the Centre. Long time to go yet but the Tories are really screwed here. They need a leader who is not attached to the last leadership and someone who isn't going to copy Reform's full policies. Just think unless Reform self destruct and lose Farage (which could happen, but I don't think it will) they will do well.
February 8Feb 8 They are only screwed as they just had such a heavy defeat, the new leader was always going to be an interim until a new candidate emerges. They’ll be back by 2034/39 - nothing changes in British politics no matter no tumultuous the outside world is.
February 9Feb 9 They are only screwed as they just had such a heavy defeat, the new leader was always going to be an interim until a new candidate emerges. They’ll be back by 2034/39 - nothing changes in British politics no matter no tumultuous the outside world is. Just don't see how they exist in the current format though, Reform is eating their vote gains from Brexit and the Centrists are pivoting to Lib Dems or even Labour. Of course they will be back, but they either need to move back to the Centre or merge with Reform, which I just cannot see them doing.
February 10Feb 10 You’ve just answered your own question, the Lib Dem voters in the south and west will return to the fold eventually (like I said by 2034/39). They always do. Then events will take over like they always do (see Financial crash in 2008 as the previous example) and the tories will be back. Edited February 10Feb 10 by Steve201
February 10Feb 10 @1888905564010238200 While that Starmer-Farage line stays advantage Starmer, I'll be happy. Generally good news for Labour despite the poor approval ratings, no one is looking popular right now. Awful awful poll for Badenoch.
February 10Feb 10 @1888905564010238200 While that Starmer-Farage line stays advantage Starmer, I'll be happy. Generally good news for Labour despite the poor approval ratings, no one is looking popular right now. Awful awful poll for Badenoch. It feeds in to the general discontent around politics people are feeling. I know Reform will look to tap in to that, but even as much as they try and hide it they’re still part of the establishment. And those Farage/Starmer numbers are positive, I do think this is where Farage can’t avoid Brexit and the disaster it’s been.
February 10Feb 10 Yeah I don’t know what questions like that really mean though. Davey got better numbers than Farage and Kemi yet will get far less votes. Starmer has a higher unpopularity rating with yougov than Farage and their last poll had Reform above Labour yet over 10% more think Starmer would be a better prime minister. How does that all compute? Just maybe the question is answered differently by different people. Overall it shows not a single major leader is liked or trusted really
February 10Feb 10 Computes quite easily I think. Obviously the 'no leader is liked' hypothesis is prevalent given how it matches with the latest polls, but I'm more interested in what it may mean in a hypothetical electoral situation, and whether Reform, the vaunted beneficiaries of political dissatisfaction, can benefit. According to this poll, they're some way off doing that. Basically, I think this is a valuable question to be asked alongside voting intention! Because so often people vote according to who they want as prime minister, even if that's not the actual purpose of their vote. I also like the way it's asked, as you can see who people would prefer in a variety of two-way matchups, and where people will go if their first-preference isn't present, which is quite relevant in a FPTP system. For instance, Davey winning out his matchups over the right-wing leaders just shows that absent Labour, Labour voters will go for the Liberal Democrats, which is good for the LDs when it comes to keeping the southern seats they gained this cycle. Meanwhile, the 22-22 number for Badenoch vs Farage should worry both. Large numbers refusing to answer the question, and both would want to be the clear choice for PM among the right-leaning voter base which is marginally smaller than the left (or centre-left, don't @ me) one most of the time, Badenoch got some support from 2024 left-leaning voters, which puts her worse off than otherwise, as that is unlikely to translate in most seat matchups, and Farage clearly can't reach out beyond his base and will inspire people to vote against him. Neither of them can come out ahead of the left-wing leaders when put against them in any combination. The Yougov ratings that are on their main site are updated only every quarter, and to my knowledge are derived from data asked to members in a sidebar 'rate these six politicians' kind of deal rather than a commissioned poll. Just different methodologies really and a different question altogether, you might dislike someone but still prefer them as PM over another. It's also more out-of-date. https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea....rs_250207_w.pdf - for the data tables. It's one poll and one poll can never be gospel, but it's useful data and IMO more based on what happens in reality in general elections as opposed to Electoral Calculus-style extrapolating the voting intention polls to create a hypothetical result map. As fun as those are, I never particularly believed the 500+ Labour maps that those models were coming out with last spring and likewise I don't particularly believe the ones extrapolated from the latest voting intention polls that have Reform gaining hundreds of seats across the country - the micro-election style of FPTP moderates countrywide trends to an extent. Also consider that Starmer, by being virtue of actually being the PM, does hold an advantage in this question. Probably similar to whatever incumbency effect there is at the next electoral test.
February 19Feb 19 Will be interesting to see the Reform polls over the coming weeks. Trump has low favourable approval ratings in the U.K. and with his descent in to madness I can’t see that going down well with people who may be tempted to vote Reform. Interesting of course to see the likes of Farage and Tice very silent on the matter at the moment when they’re usually the first gobshites to pop up.
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