Okay, by popular demand, here it is.

 

Remember the UK is 5 hours ahead of Eastern Time US at the moment, so all times you may see online, you should add on 5-8 hours to them. I'll be using GMT from now on in this post.

 

First polls close from 11pm in the UK, 6pm in the US, that'll be Indiana and Kentucky, both solid Trump states, but we shouldn't see any full results until gone midnight. I expect we'll see a good picture of how it's going late in the night, but states like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona are likely to take a long time to count their votes and if any of the other swing states are on a razor's edge it'll take a day or two for them to be called too.

 

Let's start this off with final Electoral College predictions, go.

That's my final thoughts - had 2020 minus Arizona rattling around in my brain for a few days now. Colours show margins.

 

(if anyone doesn't know how to generate maps, you can use 270toWin or YAPMS, or just post your numbers)

 

What my head says - i just can’t see enough ticket splitters in NC for Trump to win, if polling is right and Robinson is down double digits

 

 

What my heart says

 

REP: 433,339 (37.8%)

DEM: 386,168 (33.7%)

OTH: 320,389 (28%)

 

Current Nevada state of play. Essentially lots of Dem mail to come that should make it close then it all comes down to independents and obviously people voting all day too

 

I really don't know tho.

Right now this is what I’m thinking but I’m not ruling out New Hampshire

 

I think under a Trump victory scenario - assuming we are not just gonna get Trump support amongst WWC voters underestimated for a 3rd election in a row - then if any dem state would be run close then it would be New Mexico rather than New Hampshire.

 

Similarly I have Hawaii as being not-even-safe after being the best Dem state in 2016.

Aye, if we're taking cues from the Selzer poll, which would indicate strong performances for Dems across the midwest, the counterweight would be Republican strength on the border states - which fits with the election narratives, strength for Dems in less religious states more concerned on abortion, strength for Republicans in states directly experiencing immigration.

Right now this is what I’m thinking but I’m not ruling out New Hampshire

 

I’m screaming laughing at deep red PA from inside one of the swingiest counties in the state

Will likely look at the results in the morning. From the inital look at things, turnout appears to be on par if not higher than 2020 in some cases. I believe a turnout equal to or slightly higher than 2020 would favour Harris over Trump.

 

Going to certainly be nail biting!

Edited November 5, 2024Nov 5 by Envoirment

I’m screaming laughing at deep red PA from inside one of the swingiest counties in the state

 

You're dealing with a full on right wing maga :lol: Of course that's his map

I'm cautiously optimistic, I'm praying for a clear victory for Harris as well so the tension is over quickly. I'm prepared for the worst but hoping for the best x. No matter what the result is, Harris should be proud of her campaign :wub: I've made these projections based on early voting:

 

 

 

I think Harris has an strong chance of winning North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. I also think she'll win Nevada and Georgia but those states will be incredible close imo (much like Georgia and Arizona in the last election). Iowa & Arizona are longshots as well but still possible.

Exit polls has democracy has the top issue, even above economy, where Trump now only has a 4% lead anyway...

 

If Republican women are voting for Harris, the exir polls may be off too, so there's that. Just gonna have to wait this one out.

Democracy being ahead of Economy is rare (even 2008 had that as first priority), really hope that's a good sign.

 

Don't envy you people staying up, but may not be able to sleep much myself, here's hoping to not waking up to doomsday xx

what's your coverage of choice? I'm probably going to be bouncing between BBC (as much as it's my default I feel wary about trusting them for decent US election coverage), CNN, NBC and my favourite political livestreamer.

I'm sticking to NBC right now but most probably will switch to CNN at some point x

MSNBC/NBC and CNN youtube channels and occasionally Fox News just out of interest!

In a mixture of rational analysis and blind desperation, I predict Harris 286 - Trump 252

 

Harris takes Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Trump takes North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

Donald Trump is ahead in Kentucky and Indiana according to CNN