Just now, gasman449 said:

Survive also won't make it

Ah of course - both would have been #1 without ACR as well.

18 minutes ago, gasman449 said:

Is Dakota doing that badly? Would've guessed Cruel Summer would be out before it.

I have “Dakota” doing about 8k per week, so if it drops out it could come back once it leapfrogs “Cruel Sunmer” and “Burning Down”. I’m guessing those two have 1 more week above “Dakota” but could be wrong.

Here are my estimates for all-time figures, but I haven’t rounded them all in the same way.

1 Shape Of You 6,756,000 (max)

2 Mr Brightside 6,747,500

3 Last Christmas 6,361,000

4 Do They Know It’s Christmas 6,347,000 (max)

5 Someone You Loved 6,318,000

6 Perfect 6,000,000

7 All I Want For Christmas Is You 5,686,000

So I am pretty sure that ‘Last Christmas’ is now ahead of ‘Do They Know It’s Christmas?’.

If Shape Of You has stayed steady, Mr Brightside will overtake it next week. If Shape Of You has been in decline, then Mr Brightside may have already overtaken it. But Shape Of You might have increased, as it spent one week in the streaming chart this year compared with none last year.

Any thoughts?

I think two more weeks before the Killers pass to be on the safe side

I’ve just done a quick attempt to calculate projected sales up to and including Christmas Day.

Mr Brightside 6,774,000

Last Christmas 6,773,000

That’s ridiculously close!

If that’s right, then theoretically ‘Last Christmas’ will overtake on Boxing Day!

However - an underestimate of Christmas Day streaming could cost ‘Last Christmas’ the title of biggest selling single of all time!

I challenge you all to attempt an estimate too. Especially @Matt63 @Julian_

I’ve taken into consideration a small weekly decline for The Killers; fewer December days this week; and a 17.5% decline year on year for ‘Last Christmas’. To see how close I am, I’ve projected next week’s sales for Wham! to be 65,500 SCR/33,000 ACR.

27 minutes ago, GreyAsh said:

I’ve just done a quick attempt to calculate projected sales up to and including Christmas Day.

Mr Brightside 6,774,000

Last Christmas 6,773,000

That’s ridiculously close!

If that’s right, then theoretically ‘Last Christmas’ will overtake on Boxing Day!

However - an underestimate of Christmas Day streaming could cost ‘Last Christmas’ the title of biggest selling single of all time!

I challenge you all to attempt an estimate too. Especially @Matt63 @Julian_

I’ve taken into consideration a small weekly decline for The Killers; fewer December days this week; and a 17.5% decline year on year for ‘Last Christmas’. To see how close I am, I’ve projected next week’s sales for Wham! to be 65,500 SCR/33,000 ACR.

Haha interesting. I think December 1 will really be the acid test regarding whether “Last Christmas” will continue to underperform relative to previous years.

Of course “Last Christmas” will have pretty high numbers on Boxing Day so should be well ahead of “Mr Brightside” in the mids going towards the New Year chart, though “Mr Brightside” will start to come back over Twixmas and then get a big boost on New Year’s Eve / Day.

17 minutes ago, Julian_ said:

Haha interesting. I think December 1 will really be the acid test regarding whether “Last Christmas” will continue to underperform relative to previous years.

I think December 2 will be a better test.

December 1 is always a really big day for streaming but you can’t compare it either with Sunday December 1 or Monday December 2 from last year.

For the OCC's official end of year chart, are the estimated Thursday streams used or the actual streams (assuming they are eventually reported)?

9 minutes ago, Johann said:

For the OCC's official end of year chart, are the estimated Thursday streams used or the actual streams (assuming they are eventually reported)?

Estimated - there’s never any retrospective correction

1 hour ago, Julian_ said:

Estimated - there’s never any retrospective correction

Is there any chance that the OCC won’t announce the chart on Boxing Day and therefore will calculate accurately?

As and when Last Christmas goes 9x platinum, that will indicate a total of 6.82M chart sales all time.

Presumably the BPI certifications are based on actual figures rather than weekly chart estimates?

Also no. The actual Thursday streams are never counted. The estimated figures are used for everything

On 29/11/2025 at 18:44, GreyAsh said:

Is there any chance that the OCC won’t announce the chart on Boxing Day and therefore will calculate accurately?

Next to no chance

Golden should climb to 4 on the YTD chart before the end of the year. Best track of the year IMO

2 minutes ago, adrianreavill83 said:

Golden should climb to 4 on the YTD chart before the end of the year. Best track of the year IMO

Think it will be pretty close. Assuming it keeps its current weekly sales for the rest of the year it will finish around 5k ahead of APT.

APT will get a boost from Spotify Wrapped this week. Golden will too but would expect APT to benefit more as it’s not as big at the moment