China is accused of fuelling Pacific arms race

A dramatic increase in the number of submarines being built in southeast Asia has sparked claims that a new arms race is under way beneath the waves in the Western Pacific.

Dozens of hunter-killers, armed with missiles and intelligence-gathering equipment, are being built, fanning fears of potential conflict in a volatile corner of the world and threatening to alter the global balance of military power.

The Indonesian government has announced that it wants to build 12 submarines by 2024 to patrol the strategically vital waters around its 17,000 islands. Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Bangladesh and -Pakistan are all buying -submarines "off the shelf".

China and India - the two emergent superpowers of the Asia-Pacific region - are now planning a new generation of nuclear-powered boats that, in China's case, could fire nuclear missiles capable of hitting the US mainland.

A report published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think-tank warns: "There is an element of an arms race at work here."

Andrew Davies, the author of The Enemy Below, said: "Submarines will be able to seriously threaten the operation of surface fleets and commercial trade."

His report predicts that the growing number of submarine operations could lead to a "serious international incident" and that the "potential for miscalculation is significant, leading to accidents or escalation of response".

The major peril in these waters has been, until recently, the prevalence of modern-day paramilitary "pirates", who blight the trade routes through the Malacca Straits between Sumatra and Malaysia.

Now they are becoming the hunting ground for a new generation of submarine, capable of sinking ships, attacking ports and oil facilities, laying mines and landing covert raiding parties.

Indonesia is adding submarines to its fleet faster than any other country of comparable size. Four Russian Kilo class diesel-powered boats have been ordered from the Russian Far East, at a cost of $200million (£107 million) each. A $750million deal last month with South Korea will supply another two submarines.

By 2016, Singapore plans to have six submarines. Earlier this month, a French Scorpene submarine ordered by Malaysia reached its final stage of construction, the first of two destined for the Royal Malaysian Navy. Vietnam wants two or three Kilo-class boats.

Defence advisers in Australia, Britain's closest ally in the region, are voicing concern that the country's regional naval superiority is under attack.

British military officials, who conduct submarine exercises alongside Australia in the South Pacific, fear that nuclear warheads could be mounted on missiles fired by conventional submarines acquired by the other nations, creating a nuclear standoff in the region.

The US Office of Naval Intelligence says China is intent on building five strategic nuclear-missile boats, equipped with 5,000-mile range JL-2 missiles, which will give it an arsenal of 60 strategic nuclear missiles at sea, each with multiple warheads.

The first will go to sea next year, and the first two of a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarines will enter service this year. Chinese defence spending will increase 17 per cent this year to £23 billion - the 19th year of double-digit growth.

Last November China shifted its defensive posture, from the Mao doctrine, which envisaged destroying enemies within the borders of China, to one that would protect the homeland offshore.

Current number Planned

India 16 6

China 20 24

Singapore 4 2

Indonesia 2 12

Australia 6 none

Taiwan 4 none

Vietnam none 3

Malaysia none 2

N Korea 23 none

Japan 16 none

Total US Fleet 72 none