The Met Office have released their summer forecast today and it looks like ANOTHER warmer than normal summer.

Summer 2007 forecast

Issued 11 Apr 2007

 

Background

Since the mid 1980s the average UK surface air temperature has warmed by about 1 °C, which is about twice the global warming trend averaged over all land areas. As a consequence, summers (and indeed other seasons) warmer than the 1971-2000 average are now common (the last summer with temperatures below the 1971-2000 average was nearly 10 years ago in 1998). Moreover, the underlying chance of exceptionally warm summers, such as experienced in 2003 or 2006, has increased. Year-to-year variability can add or detract from the underlying trend, and seasonal forecasting systems are designed to detect these year-to-year changes.

 

This forecast for Summer 2007 has been derived using global forecasting models and statistical methods. Seasonal variations usually affect large geographic areas, so the forecast for the UK is set in the broader picture of Europe as a whole.

 

Summer, in this context, is defined as the months of June, July and August.

 

Forecast for Summer 2007

 

Temperature

There is a high probability (at least 70%) that mean summer temperatures will be above the 1971-2000 long-term average over much of western Europe, including the UK. Indications for this year suggest the odds for a particularly hot summer, similar to those experienced in 2003 and 2006 across the UK, are around 1 in 8.

 

Precipitation

Prospects for rainfall are uncertain. However, there are currently no indications of an increased risk of either a particularly dry or a particularly wet summer.

The summer forecast will next be updated at 10 a.m. 1 May 2007.

 

However something that we can't debate on is the fact of how warm the past 12 months have been across the UK and western Europe,

sea temperatures are 2c warmer than normal and although since the 1980's global temperatures have been increasing, the rise in

the past year has been bigger than ever before, i mean just look at now, its only April and 25c is set for the Weekend, people may

think its a good thing but average temperatures are around 11-13c at this time of year, its not normal to be this warm, lack of rainfall

is also causing a potential water shortage again this summer for the south east.

take it with a pinch of salt m8... they find forecasting several days ahead pretty difficult let alone months ahead...

 

heres hoping for a long hot summer!