Posted March 16, 200817 yr I'm not gonna do a full in-depth analysis of each song this year, only my predictions of how things will turn out. ^_^ Semi final #1RussiaArmeniaIsraelRomaniaIrelandNorwayBelgiumGreeceAndorraPoland AzerbaijanEstoniaSloveniaNetherlandsSan MarinoFinlandBosnia-HerzegovinaMontenegroMoldovaThere are a lot of Russian neighbours in this semi-final, hence why I think they'll win the semi-final. It'll be a close run thing with Armenia though I reckon, and I also think Israel will comfortably qualify. Romania's bizarre effort should also easily be enough to see them go through fairly easily, and the same can be said for Ireland. Norway's fantastic piece should also qualify well, as should the bizarre Belgian song. Not too bad for western Europe so far! In addition to that Andorra will just scrape into the top nine I reckon, benefitted strongly with 12 points from Spain! Greece should get through with a decent enough song and a good track record too. I think Azerbaijan will make it via the jury vote, so it'll be heartbreak once again for Poland, who will narrowly miss out. Two of the novelty acts - Estonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina - are also in this semi, and I think Ireland's turkey will contribute to their downfall. I really can't see them getting votes from anyone else other than their neighbours, and they are limited in here. A final blast also from the Netherlands, their failure to qualify will probably ensure they don't participate in 2009, which is a shame, but hey ho. San Marino's song won't appeal to too many either, nor will Finland's. Montenegro's bland piece will pick up points only from neighbours, ditto with Moldova. Finally, Slovenia's catchy tune will also fail to impress imo, nice tune, but it just doesn't stand out. Will pick up big points from its neighbours, and a few others along the way, but not enough for it to qualify.
March 16, 200817 yr I generally agree with you David, though I can see Bosnia-Herzegovina qualifying over Andorra and Slovenia over Israel
March 16, 200817 yr Author lol David there's no way that none ex-yu country will make it :P I think this year could be a poor year for the ex-Yugoslavians Boyan. :o
March 16, 200817 yr Well, I do think a few more Eastern European countries will qualify thanks to diaspora voting. You gotta remember that these voters don't care if it is a crappy song or not, they just vote for the country and not for the song. Russia will definately win this if nothing out of ordinary happens thanks to neighbourly/diaspora voting, I do agree with you on that one. Hopefully Andorra and Ireland do qualify (Well, Ireland is quite a certain bet unless the performance is totally crappy). I cannot see Estonia even that high, I mean who would vote that? Finland I think is a bit of a question mark. It is not nearly as accessable song as Lordi's was but nowhere near as hard as last year's Czech effort. And, of course, some of the songs might still go under some changes, for better or worse.
March 16, 200817 yr I think this year could be a poor year for the ex-Yugoslavians Boyan. :o at least one from each semi will go to the final ;)
March 16, 200817 yr Author Semi final #2 UkraineTurkeySwedenBulgariaIcelandAlbaniaMaltaLatviaHungaryCroatia SwitzerlandCzech RepublicDenmarkGeorgiaFYR MacedoniaBelarusCyprusPortugalLithuania I think this semi-final will be very close for the bulk, but will see Ukraine, Turkey and Sweden sail through very comfortably. I think we'll see a couple of Balkan countries go through here, but still no ex-Yugoslavian ones. Bulgaria should comfortably go through, and I think Albania's ballad will secure them a place in the final. Iceland's Europop could go one way or the other, but I've put them fifth due to the fact they have Sweden and Denmark also in this semi-final, and coupled with the fact that it's a good song and a fans' favourite, it should do well. Malta's crazy entry should see them through, and I reckon Latvia and Hungary will just sneak through alongside them. Switzerland should go through by virtue of the jury vote, but I think they'll do alright with the pubic vote anyway. Croatia will hopefully narrowly miss out on a top nine place. I usually really like Croatia's entries, but these last two have been really quite hideous. The Czech Republic, Denmark and Georgia will all narrowly miss out I think, which is a shame in Denmark's case as it's a pretty good song. Macedonia now... usually guaranteed to come top ten in the semi and bomb in the final, but I really can't see them making the top nine this year (sorry Boyan!). Very poor song, which is in stark contrast to the brilliance of the previous two entries, especially 'Mojot Svet'! Cyprus' song's pretty catchy, but I can't see it appealing to too many; Belarus and Lithuania will get votes purely from neighbours and Portugal's decent effort will merely be overshadowed.
March 16, 200817 yr Again David, generally I agree with these but I can see Macedonia going through over Hungary's bland-fest and I think Latvia will come a lot higher than 8th
March 16, 200817 yr Re. the first semi-final, I can see Azerbaijan getting a fair few public votes especially from the east and the diaspora. Norway will get through, but I think it's more likely to be from the jury vote unless Maria gets a really good draw.
March 16, 200817 yr yea i agree semi 2 looks as if its gonna be close ill be behind iceland just luv there song
March 16, 200817 yr Portugal's decent effort will merely be overshadowed. I hope not, it's about time we'd have a decent result.
March 16, 200817 yr Author I hope not, it's about time we'd have a decent result. It is, last year you were robbed! I did vote for Moldova though! :lol:
March 16, 200817 yr I'd make a bit different predictions. From semi 1, I do see Russia on the top, but I also see Bosnia&Herzegovina making its way to the final. That song is not going to get hit by the Irish turkey, they're quite different in style and concept. In this semi-final, I see only Ireland and Estonia as gimmicks/jokes, so the fun vote will be divided between them. Bosnia's entry is bizarre, but it's not going to be liked by the same people who vote for Verka Serduchka or Dustin the Turkey. It's too artistic, creative and original. In one word, it's alternative, and if people want such stuff this year, it will make it. Otherwise, Armenia, Andorra and Russia provide us with the typical europop pattern. Also, I don't see Romania in the top list, but strangely, I see Moldova there (yes, I like that song a lot :rolleyes: ). As for semi 2, it's going to be a close fight, this is the better group, in my opinion. I don't see the logic of Turkey in the top 3, and San Marino not even qualifying in the other semi-final - both songs are exactly the same style and performance, so this may only happen if we have the diasporra voting for Turkey again (though I'd prefer San Marino over it - I like the song). Malta and Hungary are out, however. In comes Cyprus and Portugal, I predict. A surprise success might be made by Croatia's entry - it's my absolute favorite song this year, though I'm probably the only one with that opinion. For the 5 countries that go straight to final, I predict a high place for Serbia and moderate success for Germany. I like UK's entry, it's quite good piece of music, but for some reason or another, it probably won't make high. Edited March 16, 200817 yr by Tomoe
March 24, 200817 yr Author I actually did this a bit ago, and I might do a revised version soon, but here is what I predicted a week or so ago. ^_^ Final ArmeniaRussiaUkraineIrelandTurkeySerbiaIsraelRomaniaSwedenNorwayGreeceLatviaBulgariaBelgiumAlbaniaFranceUnited KingdomGermanyAzerbaijanMaltaHungaryIcelandAndorraSwitzerlandSpain
March 24, 200817 yr Author Hmm yes I can see a few flaws in that. I think I'll have a look at what could be done differently now. ^_^
March 24, 200817 yr Author Ok I've actually gone through the whole voting process because I have nothing else better to do! :lol: Here is what I've done for the first semi-final... Russia 150Armenia 147Greece 142Israel 117Romania 102Azerbaijan 87Belgium 84Finland 70Bosnia-Herzegovina 54Norway 49Slovenia 45Netherlands 43Ireland 37Andorra 35Moldova 19Estonia 12Montenegro 11Poland 10San Marino 4 Russia, Armenia and Greece should all comfortably go through here, though I can see Greece falling back quite a bit more in the final; Israel and Romania are other certs too imo. I can see the bizarreness of Azerbaijan and Belgium helping them go through, and I now reckon that Finland will join them in the top nine. The goths will be out for the Finnish again, though not in as many droves as they were for Lordi! I now also think Bosnia-Herzegovina will just sneak through ahead of Norway and Slovenia - though I'm still not convinced by that song. Norway should get the jury vote (if they don't qualify, and I've a horrible feeling they won't) and I think the Netherlands will also just fall short. Now - two countries I previously said would go through will now fall short I think. I have come to realise that Ireland's song is actually really bad and the performance is just as cringeworthy as Scooch's was last year. The only reason I think they'll get slightly more points now is because it's a turkey performing as opposed to four middle aged trolly dollies... Andorra's excellent pop song will do a Selma/Kate Ryan/DJ Bobo unfortunately, and the bottom five really have no chance. It's gonna be a poor year for the novelty songs in the semi-finals now I'm thinking, with so many of them around, and that could also work to Spain's advantage in the final...
March 24, 200817 yr I can't see Ireland failing to go through...they won't have to compete with Spain in this Semi... I agree with 8 of your qualifiers...I'm undecided over Finland and Israel...I still think Slovenia and Ireland have a much better chance of going through
March 24, 200817 yr Author I'll probably change my mind again regarding Ireland in a week or so, but at the moment, I see it flopping. :o
March 24, 200817 yr Author Here's semi final #2! Ukraine 173Sweden 156Turkey 111Bulgaria 108Portugal 99Albania 97Iceland 80Georgia 59FYR Macedonia 56Croatia 51Czech Republic 49Hungary 42Latvia 41Switzerland 37Malta 37Denmark 36Belarus 21Cyprus 12Lithuania 11 Ok then. Semi final #2 should see Ukraine and Sweden stride through quite easily, despite both having poor singing positions. I still think Turkey will do well, they might falter ever so slightly in the final though. Bulgaria are another dead cert to qualify too I think, good song and lots of neighbours in this semi should see them go through pretty easily. I originally predicted Portugal to completely flop, but now that they have such a good singing position, and I have come to realise that the song is actually fantastic, I reckon they will qualify with relative ease. Albania should also qualify by virtue of many neighbours and a good song here. Now my final two going through via the public are new 'uns for this semi-final. Georgia and Macedonia both actually have very good songs, something which I hadn't realised before! Both are on fairly late, and Macedonia will certainly benefit from the neighbourly vote. I can see both seriously flopping in the final though, but more on that later. Switzerland's fine song will no doubt flop here, but that's what the jury vote is for! I'm going to brave it now and also say that novelty songs from both Croatia and Latvia will fail to qualify - and I seriously hope they do - and MoR songs from the Czech Republic and Hungary will also fall at the final hurdle. Another failure for Malta also, which means more points for the UK in the final! And Denmark will only really benefit from their Nordic friends. Good song from the Danes though. Belarus' nightmare of a song, Cyprus' oddness and Lithuania's dreariness will also condemn them to another year being onlookers in the final.
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