Right, after a lot of thinking and Excel tinkering, I've come up with an idea of how the whole thing will play out ^_^ Sorry to steal David's idea :heehee:

 

The first semi went as follows for me:

 

1. Armenia - 160

2. Russia - 126

3. Greece - 112

4. Ireland - 106

5. Israel - 101

6. Romania - 86

7. Bosnia-Herzegovina - 85

8. Norway - 70

9. Andorra - 53

10. Moldova - 50

11. Poland - 47

12. Belgium - 46

13. Finland - 40

14. Estonia - 32

15. Montenegro - 30

16. Slovenia - 27

17. Azerbaijan - 24

18. The Netherlands - 20

19. San Marino - 8

 

Now, for the first semi-final I have Armenia winning by quite a wide margin, with Russia, Greece, Ireland and Israel tailing behind (contrary to my review comments, I now think that Israel stand a very good chance of getting through due to lack of competition in the first semi-final and the fact that Israel are performing with a powerful song in between some really shoddy competition). Romania and Bosnia-Herzegovina will both get through with roughly similar points for their odd entries if only because of a lack of anything else to vote for for many eastern countries, followed by Norway at 8th - a song I think will get through merely because it is far too classy to be ignored and have to rely upon the jury vote. Andorra will just squeeze through in my opinion, and from the three unlucky countries behind Andorra I think the jury vote will either go for Belgium or Poland, more likely Belgium. Moldova's song did surprisingly well, picking up lots of 3s and 4s; a 10 apiece from the Iberian diaspora (Andorra + Spain) and Romania's 12. Finland likewise picked up quite a few points (mainly little points, with highlights from Estonia (10) and Norway (8)), but I don't think enough goths will be watching to get them through during the week David! :heehee: Estonia's odd entry only picked up major points from Finland and Russia and shouldn't trouble the top 10 with its frankly feeble attempt at humour; and Montenegro's dated rock should only get rewarded significantly by Bosnia and get left at the semi stage yet again this year. Slovenia somewhat undeservedly only picked up 27 points, most of which came from the Balkans, only getting a 12 from Bosnia. Azerbaijan's unique entry will probably be ignored by most of Europe with the sole 12 coming from Armenia (that is if tensions have cooled since the Nagorno-Karabakh war of the early 90s - I don't really have much of a precedent to go on for this with regards to the Azeris!). The Netherlands will be rewarded with a couple of eastern points, but only really getting major points from Belgium and Israel (10 and 8 respectively); and San Marino's dirge will be almost universally ignored and only received a few little points.

The second semi went as:

 

1. Ukraine - 194

2. Sweden - 125

3. Bulgaria - 124

4. Turkey - 108

5. Malta - 102

6. Latvia - 89

7. Iceland - 76

8. Belarus - 75

9. Albania - 69

10. Czech Republic - 66

11. Georgia - 37

12. Switzerland - 36

13. Macedonia - 35

14. Croatia - 33

15. Hungary - 31

16. Denmark - 30

17. Lithuania - 23

18. Portugal - 21

19. Cyprus - 16

 

The second semi-final was FAR more interesting and tougher to call than the first, if only because the quality of the songs is far greater. All in all however, only one deserving song missed out (IMO), and positions 7-10 are very easily interchangable I think. Ukraine absolutely stormed the voting in this semi, getting 6+ points from everybody (mainly thanks to the song's unique position between a rock song and rock-opera dirge, as well as a doubtlessly energetic performance from Ani Lorak) and leaving its two nearest competitors, Sweden and Bulgaria, 70 points behind. Sweden and Bulgaria should mop up the remaining points (Sweden taking the main share from the West, Bulgaria from the East). Turkey should get a good enough result, with Cyprus having nobody else to vote for and a good few neighbours/diaspora countries left to get them 100+ points, despite the voting restrictions depriving Turkey of most of their typical voting partners. Malta pick up lots of little points from almost everyone, although their only 8+ vote comes from the UK who give them 12. The same happens for Latvia who only get a 12 from Lithuania, although in both cases their widespread support is more than enough to qualify them through to the final. Positions 7-10 however offer a lot of competition, with about 4 countries (who will probably have roughly equal support) going for 3 places (as the jury vote is inevitably going to Switzerland in this semi). I had Iceland finishing 7th, with a lot of little points and a few major ones from Scandinavia; Belarus 8th with 10s and 12s from the East but a lot of 2-5 pointers; Albania 9th with strong Balkan support but lots of 2s and 3s from elsewhere; and the Czech Republic 10th with their votes mainly comprised of 2-4 pointers but a couple of 8s and 10s from the East and the Balkans. I think this is a fairly realistic result although if it were to be interchanged I think Belarus would probably be the ones to be left out, as the song strikes me as being rather hit-or-miss. Georgia finished 11th, being overshadowed by many of the other entries with what is a fairly average entry, and finishing far behind 10th. Switzerland will probably do fairly badly in the televote but are almost certain to get the jury vote should they not qualify. Macedonia's entry sounds good on the studio version, although taking the live performance into account an awful performance will probably mean that the Macedonians miss out on their first final since 2003. Croatia doesn't have anywhere near enough comedy appeal (or neighbours in this semi for that matter) to qualify; and Hungary's 3 minute coma will probably be forgotten by most of Europe. Denmark picked up a lot of major points early on (mainly from Scandinavia) although quickly faded off, and I think the song is really too catchy and chirpy for its own good and probably will annoy too much to qualify. Lithuania only picked up points from Latvia, Belarus and Sweden (12, 10 and 1 respectively); while Portugal's only major points came from the French diaspora. Cyprus' overly-ethnic country shot itself in the foot by being entered this year with no Greece to vote for it in this semi, and as a result only picked up points from Turkey and the Greek diaspora in the UK.

And the final went:

 

1. Armenia - 284

2. Ukraine - 273

3. Ireland - 203

4. Serbia - 166

5. Russia - 157

6. Sweden - 152

7. Greece - 145

8. Andorra - 110

9. Turkey - 100

10. Israel - 100

11. Romania - 84

12. Bulgaria - 82

13. Belarus - 68

14. Malta - 64

15. Iceland - 64

16. Latvia - 63

17. Norway - 60

18. Albania - 58

19. France - 57

20. Germany - 53

21. Switzerland - 50

22. Bosnia-Herzegovina - 47

23. Belgium - 26

24. United Kingdom - 20

25. Spain - 0

 

In the final, the two main competitors were Armenia and Ukraine right from the start, with 3rd place always trailing quite far behind. The result went right down to the final vote (if only! :() with Armenia and Ukraine being by far the most noticable entries, both receiving good 'draws' on my iTunes shuffle :heehee: Ireland picked up many protest votes but only 2 douze points, from the United Kingdom and Malta respectively, with the rest of Western Europe giving 6+ points in protest and Eastern Europe giving 1-5 points mainly for comedy value. Serbia picked up many diaspora and neighbourly votes for what is a powerful song, but not anywhere near powerful enough to be in serious contention for victory IMO. Contrary to most predictions, I don't think that Russia will actually go top 3 this year! I don't think the song is anywhere near as strong as recent entries and that this year Dima will have to settle for 5th place. Or even possibly 6th place as Sweden did very well in the final, picking up universal Scandinavian 12s and high points elsewhere (as in 2006) and was very close to taking Russia's 5th place. Greece could really finish anywhere in the top 10, although in this they picked up a lot of 1-4 pointers, but only one 12 (from Cyprus) and a couple of 10s (from Bulgaria, Albania and the United Kingdom). Andorra finished 8th off the back of a very good draw, which had them performing second from last, and I think Andorra's success really does lie in where it has to perform. Turkey finished 9th on 100 points with Israel, although took 9th as a result of getting more votes than them (the new tie-breaking method in place since 2006); although they would've still finished 9th under the old method as Turkey received more 10s than Israel. Israel is another country that depends on performing position for success, and I think that Bo'az could even go top 5 if he had an ideal performing position with what is one of the strongest ballads this year.

Bulgaria and Romania finished just outside the top 10 - somewhere I would accept for Romania (as long as it doesn't go top 10 ^_^) although somewhere quite disappointing for Bulgaria, but the result is mainly because all the ravers will be out on a Saturday night! Belarus shouldn't trouble the top 10 with what is a fairly unexceptional entry, and Malta and Iceland both suffer for the same reason that Bulgaria does - their main voting audience will be out on a Saturday night. :( Latvia could finish anywhere on the night depending on the performance they give, although using last year for comparison, I think they're mainly limited to Ukraine's result (top three), Romania's (mid-table) or Scooch's (flop). I had them getting a similar result to Romania's. Norway got high points from Scandinavia and the Western countries off the back of Amy Winehouse's recent success, although I think that Norway will sadly be overshadowed by the competition, and Maria really does need a performance near the end to do well here. Albania will probably be overshadowed as well, although their main success was qualifying after their recent record, so top 10 would just be a bonus. France and Germany both looked to get their best result in recent times before slipping away towards the end (and Germany's success really depends on how good No Angels are live), which would probably lead to some sort of backlash from the French involving the word 'politics'. Switzerland will flop, having no juries to save them, although they should receive high points from Albania and San Marino, given their Italophile cultures. Bosnia will probably sink without a trace with a bad performing position, and are probably limited to mid-table even with a good one. Belgium also rely on performing position and in all likeliness will find it hard to breach the bottom 5. The United Kingdom will flop miserably with a forgettable song from 2nd performing position, and even their neighbours will abandon Spain's awful attempt at parody, leaving it with a very much deserved nul points.

 

In short, I predict that there are only really 5 contenders for victory this year (with 2 outsiders): Armenia, Ukraine, Russia, Greece and Ireland (with Serbia and Sweden as outsiders).

 

Comments? ^_^

Interesting. I like it.

 

From semifinal 1:

 

I can't believe that Slovenia and Azerbaijan will place 16 and 17 to be honest.

 

Azerbaijan has Russia, Armenia, and a few sympathy votes for ex-USSR/new entry.

Slovenia always finds some way to work itself up too.

 

From semifinal 2:

 

Nice work for putting Belarus in there. It seems that they will qualify no matter what song they put in.

 

Flip Portugal and Lithuania

 

I'm not sure about Malta. She didn't sing very well in "Song for Europe".

 

hmm...Spain won't get nul points I wouldn't have thought :P

 

and Portugal are performing last in their semi-final aren't they? It's not a weak song either so I can't see it coming second to last in its semi

 

other than that it looks pretty spot on...I do hope Switzerland don't have to rely on the jury vote though

 

the two countries that come tenth in the televote in the semis will be absolutely gutted and probably kick up a fuss when the semi results are published :kink:

 

perhaps the bottom 4 will be

 

22. jury qualifier 1

23. jury qualifier 2

24. France/UK

25. France/UK

perhaps the bottom 4 will be

 

22. jury qualifier 1

23. jury qualifier 2

24. France/UK

25. France/UK

self-criticism is good :lol: But i do think so too :(

and from the three unlucky countries behind Andorra I think the jury vote will either go for Belgium or Poland, more likely Belgium.

 

Let's not forget that the 12s from the three countries using juries last year went like this:

 

Albania -> Spain :lol:

Andorra -> Ukraine

Malta -> United Kingdom

 

That last one was a protest vote, though.

self-criticism is good :lol: But i do think so too :(

 

I just can't imagine who on earth in Europe would find Even If the best song of the competition...

Let's not forget that the 12s from the three countries using juries last year went like this:

 

Albania -> Spain :lol:

Andorra -> Ukraine

Malta -> United Kingdom

 

That last one was a protest vote, though.

 

oh I didn't realise Malta used a jury :o no wonder UK got 12 points, no televoters would want Scooch as the top song :rofl:

Hmm... I think you're overestimating Ireland and underestimating Spain a little there Tyron. :heehee: Russia will do a lot better than over one hundred behind the leader I reckon too! I don't see Andorra getting anywhere near that much in the final either, they probably won't qualify in all honesty. I also think Turkey will do a bit better! :P Good stuff though Tyron. However I didn't bother reading it all as it stretched off the page. :drama:

his sig isn't affecting my page :o I must have a wider screen or something...

Oh maybe I have a small one or something. :arrr:

Let's not forget that the 12s from the three countries using juries last year went like this:

 

Albania -> Spain :lol:

Andorra -> Ukraine

Malta -> United Kingdom

 

That last one was a protest vote, though.

 

Sorry to sound thick, but what do you mean by a protest vote?

Sorry to sound thick, but what do you mean by a protest vote?

 

There was speculation that Malta used a jury instead of televoting last year as a protest against neighbourly voting. Don't forget - the most western qualifier from the SF was Slovenia.

All I know is, Spain isn't going to get 0 points. They grab too much attention to not get anything.

 

I hope I don't sound over confident (which I'm definitly not) but I think Ireland might win, there's alot less silly acts for the silly people to vote for. Irelands only real competition in the funny department is Spain, and maybe a bit from Latvia and bosnia & herzegovina.

 

You have to remember all those people that look at a silly act and think "Lolz I gonna vote for that!!!! :P "

 

Plus Ukraine almost won last year and they had tougher competition....although Irelands entry probably isn't as good as Ukraines entry.

 

Next year I hope Ireland enters something in our native tougue with a good beat and some youth in it. The only reason the Irish language isn't popular with young people is because most people look at it as "That old-fashioned thing". We need to prove that Gaeilge can be funky and fun :P.

I'm still a bit doubtful about Ireland... I certainly don't think it'll do as well as people are making out it to do. Leona Daly should've been sent for the Irish. I'm fairly confident that would've been one of the favourites purely because it's a fantastic song and excellently sung live. It's another Scooch/Cyndi injustice though. -_-