Posted May 15, 200817 yr I'm going to follow in others' footsteps and post some predictions of my own. I'm not going to predict the entire ranking of the 25 final songs, but I'll predict little odd things such as where certain countries points will go, and who will come last etc. Firstly the qualifiers from semi-final 1: Armenia Azerbaijan Bosnia-Herzegovina Greece Ireland Norway Poland Romania Russia San Marino (jury vote) I think Armenia, Bosnia-Herz, Romania and Russia are pretty much dead certs to qualify, and will do very well in the final. As for Azerbaijan, it has a big diaspora like Armenia, and it is the first really big performance of the night after quite a boring first third. It will sail through. As for Greece, it will probably make it through like every other year, but not as convincingly. Ireland will completely overshadow Estonia from earlier on and sail through to the final, but will probably be upstaged by Spain come the final. As for Poland, it should get the euro-ballad vote and sneak through, and I have completely changed my mind about Norway. I did see it doing a Kate Ryan, but realistically looking at the competition, it is very poor in the first semi-final, and after a weak opening, Norway's entry gives a polished, professional performance. I'm not sure about whether it would get the jury vote, but it should now get the public vote. As for the juries, I think there is no question - they will go for San Marino, who the public will ignore completely.
May 15, 200817 yr if the juries are foolish enough to pick the country that comes last in the public vote, then the UK won't be finishing last in the final this year!
May 15, 200817 yr Author if the juries are foolish enough to pick the country that comes last in the public vote, then the UK won't be finishing last in the final this year! Ah but then again, the juries won't know will they? I don't think San Marino will be last in the public vote. I don't think it will appeal to the public in huge numbers, but apparently they're very good performers and have turned in impressive rehearsals. I'm pretty sure that's who the jury will go for.
May 15, 200817 yr Hmm... possibly San Marino for the jury vote, the song isn't actually that bad. I'm not sure about Azerbaijan though - are they dotted around as much as Armenians? And if so, where are they? I hope they're not all in the Netherlands and Belgium like the Armenians and Turks, or else that's their top three for the forseeable future determined. :arrr:
May 15, 200817 yr I hope they're not all in the Netherlands and Belgium like the Armenians and Turks, or else that's their top three for the forseeable future determined. :arrr: And when was the last time Armenia or Turkey came top 3? :P
May 15, 200817 yr And when was the last time Armenia or Turkey came top 3? :P Their top three Tyron. As in getting their eight, ten or 12. Which Turkey have been getting from both countries, in particular the Netherlands, for the past six or seven years now. :( And Armenia have received either ten or 12 on all six occasions (2006 semi, 2006 final, 2007 final) from the Netherlands and Belgium. :o
May 15, 200817 yr Their top three Tyron. As in getting their eight, ten or 12. Which Turkey have been getting from both countries, in particular the Netherlands, for the past six or seven years now. :( And Armenia have received either ten or 12 on all six occasions (2006 semi, 2006 final, 2007 final) from the Netherlands and Belgium. :o Ah yes, I see :heehee: Yes, I really do hate diaspora voting :( I don't think Azerbaijan would have much of a diaspora though, would they? It's not like they had a genocide which forced everyone out of the country a la Armenia ;)
May 15, 200817 yr considering the high diaspora levels of the Polish in the UK, I'm always surprised that we give low-ish votes to Poland...
May 15, 200817 yr Author considering the high diaspora levels of the Polish in the UK, I'm always surprised that we give low-ish votes to Poland... I think that's because Polish people aren't really into Eurovision as much as Turks and Greeks are, who tend to score highly from us. Poland are only showing the one semi-final this year, and I think they are the only non-Big 4 country to do that. Edited May 15, 200817 yr by Peter30
May 15, 200817 yr Oh yes, and the Azeri populations around Europe are as follows: Turkey 800,000 Russia 622,000 Georgia 284,761 Germany 55,000 Ukraine 46,000 Netherlands 17,000 Austria 1,000 Australia 290 Denmark 116 God knows WHY they have such exact detail in Denmark, but whatever :heehee: By comparison, Armenian diaspora: France 500,000 Turkey 40,000-300,000 Georgia 248,900 Ukraine 100,000 Germany 42,000 Greece 35,000 Hungary 30,000 Belarus 25,000 United Kingdom 18,000 Bulgaria 10,832 Belgium 10,000 Czech Republic 10,000 No mention at all of the Netherlands there :o Turkish population: Germany 1,977,000 Bulgaria 746,000 France 262,652 Netherlands 358,000 Belgium 39,419 United Kingdom 156,000 Northern Cyprus 200,000 Azerbaijan 70,000 - that's their top three for this year then! :heehee: Switzerland 90,000 Russia 92,415 Republic of Macedonia 78,000 Serbia 50,000 (in Kosovo) Sweden 37,000 Denmark 53,000 Greece 50,000 Romania 33,000 I can't see many diaspora votes for Azerbaijan from those tbh...
May 15, 200817 yr Author OK this is hard.... Semi Final 2 Qualifiers: Albania Belarus Croatia Denmark FYR Macedonia Iceland Malta Portugal Sweden (jury vote) Ukraine OK this one is alot harder than semi-final one. As much because of bad points as good ones. I would say Ukraine and Portugal are the only certain qualifiers, and Malta and Belarus will probably manage it as well, although it's not 100% certain. I can see Europe going for Croatia alot more than Latvia's pirates, as they do give a very polished performance, and it's quite sweet. FYR Macedonia have a good draw, a contemporary song and friendly neighbours in this semi, Denmark put in an enjoyable performance of a catchy song, and Albania could be the surprise here, as it is very pleasant coming in the middle of Lithuania's horror and Switzerland's disaster, which I now know will not get the jury vote. Also, Iceland as the fantastic show opener looks pretty likely to qualify, and it would be horrible if they didn't. Unfortunately, I can see Euroband majorly overshadowing Sweden which, thanks to its draw and the fact it pales into insignificance coming after Iceland, could find itself doing a Kate Ryan if it weren't for the jury vote, which I feel confident it will get.
May 15, 200817 yr Portugal a certain qualifier? :o Likely qualifier I reckon, I don't reckon it's certain by any means though :(
May 15, 200817 yr Author I can't see many diaspora votes for Azerbaijan from those tbh... Well that's fair enough. I assumed wrongly about the diaspora, but just watch it qualify....and wait til you see my top ten predictions for the final!
May 15, 200817 yr Author Portugal a certain qualifier? :o Likely qualifier I reckon, I don't reckon it's certain by any means though :( Wonderful show-closer, fresh in people's minds, everybody who has seen her rehearsal has been blown away and if it should actually fail to grab the televotes then I am 100% sure the juries would love it. But I'm pretty sure the public will put it through. Might do a "Questa Notte" in the final though.
May 15, 200817 yr Portugal a certain qualifier? :o Likely qualifier I reckon, I don't reckon it's certain by any means though :( I agree with Peter on this one :o I think Portugal will have no problems for once...they are performing last, and its a good performance and song, very dramatic and memorable
May 15, 200817 yr OK this is hard.... Semi Final 2 Qualifiers: Albania Belarus Croatia Denmark FYR Macedonia Iceland Malta Portugal Sweden (jury vote) Ukraine OK this one is alot harder than semi-final one. As much because of bad points as good ones. I would say Ukraine and Portugal are the only certain qualifiers, and Malta and Belarus will probably manage it as well, although it's not 100% certain. I can see Europe going for Croatia alot more than Latvia's pirates, as they do give a very polished performance, and it's quite sweet. FYR Macedonia have a good draw, a contemporary song and friendly neighbours in this semi, Denmark put in an enjoyable performance of a catchy song, and Albania could be the surprise here, as it is very pleasant coming in the middle of Lithuania's horror and Switzerland's disaster, which I now know will not get the jury vote. Also, Iceland as the fantastic show opener looks pretty likely to qualify, and it would be horrible if they didn't. Unfortunately, I can see Euroband majorly overshadowing Sweden which, thanks to its draw and the fact it pales into insignificance coming after Iceland, could find itself doing a Kate Ryan if it weren't for the jury vote, which I feel confident it will get. I'm interested to see where you put Sweden in your final predictions...there is no way Charlotte Perrelli would finish bottom five in the final. Here's hoping she gets a good draw
May 15, 200817 yr Author I'm interested to see where you put Sweden in your final predictions...there is no way Charlotte Perrelli would finish bottom five in the final. Here's hoping she gets a good draw I agree. She will just find it very hard to qualify from the semis with that draw but I am sure she will do alot better in the final. Unless she is drawn after Iceland again :lol:
May 15, 200817 yr Author I agree 8 out of 10 on that...I'll cry if Croatia get through, its so dire Well I did think that, but if you take away the gimmick of the old man, you actually have quite a cute little song, which reflects Croatian folk music, by a genuine band who have tried to represent their country before. Apparently the stage show is very good, and I don't know....apart from its neighbours, I can see the rest of Europe taking this to their hearts. Again, might not do much in the final, but it will qualify.
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