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I got a feeling this is going to be a lot closer than people think

 

Obama has to be fave as he has lead every poll in weeks but I think the pollsters underestimate the "Bradley Effect" and that many Americans will not accept a black man as president

 

I think Obama will win by about 1-2%

I got a feeling this is going to be a lot closer than people think

 

Obama has to be fave as he has lead every poll in weeks but I think the pollsters underestimate the "Bradley Effect" and that many Americans will not accept a black man as president

 

I think Obama will win by about 1-2%

I don't know, yes there will be a 'Bradley Effect' but it's not going to be that much surely? Are most polls not done on the internet now whereas when Bradley was running it was face to face. People are going to be far more comfortable saying who they genuinely support when polls are anonymous.

I don't know, yes there will be a 'Bradley Effect' but it's not going to be that much surely? Are most polls not done on the internet now whereas when Bradley was running it was face to face. People are going to be far more comfortable saying who they genuinely support when polls are anonymous.

 

I think the Rasmussen ones which are recognised as being the most accurate are done on the telephone

 

Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 5%

 

I think a lot of people to look politically correct will say they will vote Obama to pollsters but then in the ballot box vote for McCain

 

Not enough for McCain to win, I think we all have to get used to President Obama and he does seem a decent guy but I really think this election is going to be very close

I got a feeling this is going to be a lot closer than people think

 

Obama has to be fave as he has lead every poll in weeks but I think the pollsters underestimate the "Bradley Effect" and that many Americans will not accept a black man as president

 

I think Obama will win by about 1-2%

Forget it. The "Bradley Effect" has been widely exposed as a complete sham, it's now widely recognised that the reason Bradley lost such a lead was because of a major drive for absentee ballots from the other side.

In the Democratic primaries, while polls significantly overestimated Obama support in 3 states, it was significantly underestimated in 12, meaning that Obama is actually likely to benefit from a reverse "Bradley effect".

Forget it. The "Bradley Effect" has been widely exposed as a complete sham, it's now widely recognised that the reason Bradley lost such a lead was because of a major drive for absentee ballots from the other side.

In the Democratic primaries, while polls significantly overestimated Obama support in 3 states, it was significantly underestimated in 12, meaning that Obama is actually likely to benefit from a reverse "Bradley effect".

 

The hardcore democrats and the hardcore republicans would vote for their candidate even if a chimpanzee was on the presidential ticket it is the undecideds, the floating voters and the first time voters that will decide this election and I would be not surprised if a significant number of these people vote for McCain on the basis of Obama's skin colour, sad in this day and age yes but there are a lot of racists in America and I think Obama's skin will swing a % point or 2 McCain's way on the day

I think it is closer than people think (which is a shame) but Obama will win easily.

 

Does anyone know what time (GMT perfably) tomorrow it is annouced?

I think it is closer than people think (which is a shame) but Obama will win easily.

 

Does anyone know what time (GMT perfably) tomorrow it is annouced?

 

It will be about 5am Wednesday morning our time before we really know who the next president is

 

I will be staying up to follow it

It will be about 5am Wednesday morning our time before we really know who the next president is

 

I will be staying up to follow it

 

what a bast*rd time, i will just find out as soon as i wake, how does the annoucement actually work?[like do they announce who is up in which states then end with overall] as you said 'follow it' sorry im a bit uneducated, i was a bit young last election to care.

what a bast*rd time, i will just find out as soon as i wake, how does the annoucement actually work?[like do they announce who is up in which states then end with overall] as you said 'follow it' sorry im a bit uneducated, i was a bit young last election to care.

 

its like the UK really, each one announce individually and no one knows who is officially president until one of the candidates reaches 270, its just a continual thing during the night

 

If as many predict it is an Obama landslide then Obama will probably get 270 by like 2-3am our time, if it is close like I expect it will be he will reach 270 by about 5am or so but yeah its a case of sitting up and watching each state announce their results

If Obama wins both Pennsylvania and Virginia (the results from which should be in by about 1.30 GMT), the race is as good as over. There would be absolutely no feasible scenario that would see McCain win.

The hardcore democrats and the hardcore republicans would vote for their candidate even if a chimpanzee was on the presidential ticket it is the undecideds, the floating voters and the first time voters that will decide this election and I would be not surprised if a significant number of these people vote for McCain on the basis of Obama's skin colour, sad in this day and age yes but there are a lot of racists in America and I think Obama's skin will swing a % point or 2 McCain's way on the day

 

I have to agree with you.

 

After the 2000 Presidential Election I think no one can take anything for granted. I also think you have to also factor in a lot of Americans voting for McCann/anti-Obama to stick two fingers up to Europe & the rest of the World telling them to vote for Obama.

 

From the sample of Americans I've met in my lifetime, one of the least smartest things you can do is to tell them what to do.

I have to agree with you.

 

After the 2000 Presidential Election I think no one can take anything for granted. I also think you have to also factor in a lot of Americans voting for McCann/anti-Obama to stick two fingers up to Europe & the rest of the World telling them to vote for Obama.

 

From the sample of Americans I've met in my lifetime, one of the least smartest things you can do is to tell them what to do.

But Gore didn't have anything like the poll numbers the day before the 2000 election that Obama does now - he was behind in fact. And an anti-Europe vote would already be showing up in the poll numbers...

 

Ths site illustrates how good things are looking for Obama right now... he can afford to lose all 10 of the current "toss-up" states (which is hugely unlikely) and he would still pass 270 for the win.

Edited November 3, 200816 yr by Danny

what a bast*rd time, i will just find out as soon as i wake, how does the annoucement actually work?[like do they announce who is up in which states then end with overall] as you said 'follow it' sorry im a bit uneducated, i was a bit young last election to care.

Yes, how inconsiderate of them to be in different time zones :lol:

 

The exit polls from states like Florida should be announced around 1 am GMT. That should be a good guide as long as they take account of people who have already voted. Any exit polls which rely solely on tomorrow's voters could be biased towards McCain.

I fear it's going to be close, it is America after all :lol:

 

I hopefully will stay up and watch through the night, although I do have work at 12, so Obama better win quick!

It's gonna be close.. I was absolutely sure John Kerry would win last time and that didn't happen so I'm very scared of the possibilty of more Republicans in power for the next four years! Seriously if they vote them in after what they've done for the past eight years (and the fact their vice candidate is a complete maniac!) then some of them really are stupid! :( (No offence to any Americans here)

Obama's grandmother died tonight

 

A personal tragedy for Obama of course but also I am sure it will win him some sympathy votes too

If McCain wins im not touching American soil while he is President.

If McCain wins im not touching American soil while he is President.

I'm not usually one for hyperbole like this, but in this instance, I would agree. A McCain victory at this point would suggest racism in America is far greater than I thought, and I would seriously consider opting out of the American Studies university courses I've already applied for.

 

Having said that, I stand by that Obama is almost guaranteed to win... and if he didn't, there will almost certainly be massive street riots.

I'm not usually one for hyperbole like this, but in this instance, I would agree. A McCain victory at this point would suggest racism in America is far greater than I thought, and I would seriously consider opting out of the American Studies university courses I've already applied for.

 

Having said that, I stand by that Obama is almost guaranteed to win... and if he didn't, there will almost certainly be massive street riots.

 

There are racists in every country though

 

the BNP get like 10% in some elections so that pretty much means 10% of people in this country are racists, in America there is 2 parties to vote for so racists are naturally going to vote republican, I would say the proportion of racists in America is no bigger than in this country