OK, here's version 3 of my estimated sales :

 

Pos Est Sales

200 950

250 767

300 620

350 520

400 435

450 365

500 305

600 230

700 185

800 150

900 128

1000 110

 

How does this look?

 

Your 950 for #200 looks spot on - I've estimated that the approx #200 for w/e 24 May 2009 sold 952 copies, based on the midweek info spreadsheet that was available for that week and using midweek-week/end projections based on other midweek sales / weekly totals for that week.

 

 

I guess you're happier with this estimate - I certainly am.

 

I found one below-T200 sales figure from Jul'08, of 520 sales at #321, so that was useful in gauging what adjustment to make.

Sales from Jul-08 to Jul-09 have increased in total by approx 37.5% (using Music Week confirmed increases for July 09 c/w July 08) so I'd uplift that #321 position sales by 37.5% to 715, which means the tail off is much less. Of course this assumes that the global uplift applies to the full tail - a bit of a rough assumption to make but one I'd be happy with as more than 50% of the sales [based on the full top 200 data I have for midweek of w/e 24 May 2009, I calculate that the top 200 accounts for approx 45% of all single sales in any one week (1.13 million out of average of 2.5 million sales), with the rest of the sales (55%) being those at #201 and lower).

 

I'll do some digging and see if I can get any mroe info. In fact, based on the figures above, might be worth doing a bit of spreadsheet goal seek action and trying to estimate how the tail off would look to get to that 2.5 million total sales in any one week.

 

===========

 

Difficulty in all of this is that the figures are increasing along an upwards curve continually, as can be seen in sales increasing by 30-40% for each week this year when compared to their previous year's figure.

Your 950 for #200 looks spot on - I've estimated that the approx #200 for w/e 24 May 2009 sold 952 copies, based on the midweek info spreadsheet that was available for that week and using midweek-week/end projections based on other midweek sales / weekly totals for that week.

 

Sales within the T200 I can give a close approximation of - hence that 950 figure.

 

Sales from Jul-08 to Jul-09 have increased in total by approx 37.5% (using Music Week confirmed increases for July 09 c/w July 08) so I'd uplift that #321 position sales by 37.5% to 715, which means the tail off is much less.

I wouldn't, because the increase in the last 12 months have been mainly at the upper regions of the chart - around 50%, compared to a market average of around 30%, and only around 20% at the bottom of the T200 - and by extension, even less than that further down.

 

Of course this assumes that the global uplift applies to the full tail - a bit of a rough assumption to make but one I'd be happy with as more than 50% of the sales [based on the full top 200 data I have for midweek of w/e 24 May 2009, I calculate that the top 200 accounts for approx 45% of all single sales in any one week (1.13 million out of average of 2.5 million sales), with the rest of the sales (55%) being those at #201 and lower).

 

My figures give an average 40% share of the market for the T200 singles.

 

Difficulty in all of this is that the figures are increasing along an upwards curve continually, as can be seen in sales increasing by 30-40% for each week this year when compared to their previous year's figure.

 

Tell me about it! :P

Edited August 17, 200916 yr by vidcapper

Now I'm up to version 4. :rolleyes:

 

Pos Est.Sales

200 950

250 780

300 640

350 540

400 455

450 380

500 320

600 245

700 200

800 165

900 140

1000 120