Brett-Butler

Me please.

Britain Elects/New Statesman currently predicting a slight Labour win. Their analysis is quite interesting, as the seat is split into areas that are equally as likely to vote for Labour and Reform (as well as a few Tory leaning ones) New StatesmanA Reform Labour showdown looms in the Runcorn by-electionThe polls are fractured, but Farage’s party fancies its chances.

One suspects that Mike Amesbury was holding off of resigning his seat long enough until Reform started to dip in the polls, hence why he waited until after the weekend. I’m going to predict a Labour win in this one, albeit one by a slim margin, as I suspect quite a fair few voters will want to give Labour a bloody nose (if you’ll pardon the expression given the reason for this by-election).

I’m sure Keir Starmer will be very happy about this Trump endorsement, I imagine he would see a Prime Minister getting his seal of approval as a very fine thing indeed. Apropos of nothing, here’s a Tweet from a few years back - @1134833523959971840

Labour Party news to watch out for this week- the six month suspension of the seven Labour MPs that voted to scrap the Catholic tax (two child benefit cap) is due to end this week (if my maths are correct). I’m predicting that 2 of them will not return to the fold.

It’s a remarkable coincidence that rumours of Franz Ferdinand performing at Eurovision just happen to coincide with the release of their new album. As much as I’d love to see it, unfortunately I think it’ll be someone else. Interestingly, it’s not the first time their name has come up. They were rumoured to be performing the Greek entry way back in 2005!

If you’re hoping it’s Alice Cooper instead of Marti Pellow because the latter is a born again Christian, then I’ve got some disappointing news for you.

Now that 2024 has rudely left us, let's see how my 2024 predictions held up - You didn't need to be Mystic Meg to predict that Labour would win the General Election, and I was right about the Lib Dems having their best election and coming third, the SNP being reduced to single figures, and Jeremy Corbyn remaining in parliament. I did underestimate the Labour landslide, and although I was right that there would be an "awkward squad" of Labour MPs, I didn't see Starmer suspending them to get them out of his hair. I was right that Biden would leave it too late to stand down with Kamala becoming the default candidate, that the Republicans would win, and that (in a roundabout way) Robert Kennedy would help. I was dead wrong about Donald Trump being the Republican candidate & winner though. The Assembly came back in February without the need for fresh elections, long before Starmer came to power. The extreme right did make gains in EU elections, and border polices have become tougher in mainland Europe. The political pole-reversal for UK membership of the EU didn't happen in 2024 to any real extent, but I still think its something to look out for. Nothing on PR yet. Yeah, can't spin this one. Got it dead wrong. I was right that Kemi would become Tory leader, and a handful of opinion polls from November onwards have shown the Tories leading Labour. No Labour party members lost the whip for attacking Kemi Badenoch (although Dawn Butler came close). Probably the biggest political thing I didn't predict for 2024 was the rise of Reform UK, outpolling the Lib Dems in votes & Farage getting into parliament for the first time, which I put down to underestimating how catastrophically bad the Tories would do in the election. Although I imagine I wasn't the only one who wrote RUK off.

I’d intended to apply for this, unfortunately you needed to supply a Republic of Ireland phone number for the form so a Nordie couldn’t take part. Will be interesting to see how this compares to other international versions.

*cries in Reformation*

Fun fact - me and Dean went to the same drama group in Belfast in our teens. Whilst we were there, we were asked to be photographed for some anti-bullying posters to be used in the local trusts. I never saw them myself, but a few people I know said they've seen them in hospitals for a few years afterwards. He hasn't covered himself in glory from what I've seen of I'm a Celeb this series unfortunately.

Think this story may end picking up a bit of traction - a newly elected Labour MP, with a portfolio of seven rental properties, is accused of making a mother of two homeless, as well as conflicts of interest from his time as a councillor.

Now that we're over 4 months into the new parliament, thought it was time to open up a new by-election thread, ahead of any potential Westminister by-elections on the cards, as well as ones outside the HoP. Since the General Election in July there has been 150 by-elections in councils across Great Britain. Many of these have been as a result of newly elected MPs resigning their council seats, although there are other reasons for stepping down, such as retiring, getting up to unacceptable behaviour, or moving house. The aggregate results make for interesting reading, with Labour losing 22 seats and the Tories winning nearly the same amount, with Reform UK & the Greens also making net gains. Now there obviously could be local factors at play in these by-elections that transcend party politics in some of these cases, but those quite a lot of seats lost in such a short space of time, especially given their recent successes in the local elections in May. @1859940695093428598

Definitely not watching as much anime now as I used to, just two series that I'm watching weekly this cour, the absolutely bonkers Dandadan, and rather nostalgically given that the original series was the first one I watched in full when I originally got into anime, the remake of Ranma 1/2. And yes, I am hoping that Luce gets an anime series in 2025...

He can’t unless the constitution changes, given he was born in South Africa. And likely wouldn’t even if he could.