Posted May 22, 201114 yr > semi·final_one ^ Caerfyrddia: B-A-B-E - (Itsie Bitsie Boe) Geef Maar Lekker Toe! ^ N-Lazone: Baker - All I'm Gonna Say ^ Frahliso: Tying Tiffany - Lost Way ^ Kluminican Republic: Manian - Loco ^ FYR Vojvodina-on-the-Wold: Jenni Vartiainen - Nettiin ^ Dalisska: Kimbra - Cameo Lover ^ Lievant: Bon Iver - Calgary ^ FSR Rontvia: Eric Amarillo - Om Sanningen Ska Fram ^ Utopia: Those Dancing Days - I'll Be Yours ^ Persephonia: Beat Connection - In The Water ^ Lotopialand: Tim & Jean - Like What ^ Tinnmark: LidoLido - Different ^ People’s Republic of Jester: Radio Killer - Lonely Heart ^ FNT Nickodonia: Safura - Paradise ^ Ojnoj: Blake Lewis - Heartbreak On Vinyl ^ Bignia-Zaragovina: Stella Mwangi - Lookie Lookie ^ Kylienips: Suzie McNeil - Drama Queen ^ Batidas: SX - Black Video ^ Quintessa: Panic! At The Disco - Oh Glory ^ Quotosibb: Keri Hilson - Break The Ice > semi·final_two ^ UnoShake: Alex Band - Only One ^ Botanikka: Cobra Starship featuring Sabi - You Make Me Feel ^ Hendinia: SoundGirl - Don't Know Why ^ Herzebania: Charice - Louder ^ Greenfroze: Frost - Parade ^ Espen: Vii - Ton Goût Des Garçons ^ Unovia: Helena Paparizou - Love Me Crazy ^ Elëdan: Idool 2011 - More To Me ^ Numayania: Dream Beats Feat. Alcazar - Feel 4 U ^ New Caprica: Colette Carr - (We Do It) Primo ^ Isconia: Niki & The Dove - DJ, Ease My Mind ^ Farahtyn: Darin - See U At The Club ^ Zechonia: Electric Lady Lab - Wondering ^ Fljótavík: Le Prix & Johan Agebjörn feat. Lake Heartbeat - Watch The World Go By [Fljótavík Re-Edit] ^ Letland: Le Kid - America ^ Ashton: Stan Walker - Loud ^ Kingdom of Shadow: Erik Hassle - Are You Leaving ^ Yuxhaaq: Christina Perri - Arms ^ Kopečka: War of Words - Panic ^ Torchwood: Getter Jaani - Robot The number on the left is the amount of times a country might be expected to NOT qualify/win (depending on what odds you're offering) in relation to the number on the right. So, for example: 3/1 = For every three times that a country with these odds doesn't win/qualify, they will win/qualify once. 5/2 = For every five times that a country with these odds doesn't win/qualify, they will win/qualify twice. 2/3 = For every two times that a country with these odds doesn't win/qualify, they will win/qualify three times. Odds that have a larger number on the right than the left indicate that there is a greater chance of the song qualifying/winning than not. For odds that don't have 1 on the right, divide the number on the left by them to get their /1 value - so, for example, 5/2 is actually a clean way of saying 2.5/1, etc. These can also be read as percentages - add the two numbers together and divide 100 by the resulting number. Then multiply the number you get by the number on the right and you will get the percentage chance of qualification/victory. So, for example, taking odds of 10/3: 10/3 = 13. 100 divided by 13 = 0.77. Multiplied by three you get 2.31. This song therefore has a 23% chance of victory/qualification. For odds on likelihood of qualifying, take note that there are 14 qualifiers from each semi final. It therefore follows that at least 10 or so songs will have odds where they have a greater chance of qualifying than not, unless it is a very close/hard to call semi!
May 24, 201114 yr Opening odds TO WIN from FSR Rontvia's Rontbet (always first, and never worst :funky:); 3/1 Kylienips: Suzie McNeil - Drama Queen 4/1 Kopečka: War of Words - Panic 4/1 Herzebania: Charice - Louder 6/1 Letland: Le Kid - America 8/1 Elëdan: Idool 2011 - More To Me 8/1 Torchwood: Getter Jaani - Robot 10/1 Utopia: Those Dancing Days - I'll Be Yours 10/1 FSR Rontvia: Eric Amarillo - Om Sanningen Ska Fram 12/1 People’s Republic of Jester: Radio Killer - Lonely Heart 12/1 Numayania: Dream Beats Feat. Alcazar - Feel 4 U 15/1 Ashton: Stan Walker - Loud 15/1 Yuxhaaq: Christina Perri - Arms 20/1 Botanikka: Cobra Starship featuring Sabi - You Make Me Feel 20/1 Ojnoj: Blake Lewis - Heartbreak On Vinyl 20/1 Hendinia: SoundGirl - Don't Know Why 25/1 FNT Nickodonia: Safura - Paradise 25/1 Dalisska: Kimbra - Cameo Lover 25/1 Unovia: Helena Paparizou - Love Me Crazy 25/1 Zechonia: Electric Lady Lab - Wondering 30/1 Kingdom of Shadow: Erik Hassle - Are You Leaving 30/1 Fljótavík: Le Prix & Johan Agebjörn feat. Lake Heartbeat - Watch The World Go By [Fljótavík Re-Edit] 30/1 Bignia-Zaragovina: Stella Mwangi - Lookie Lookie 35/1 Kluminican Republic: Manian - Loco 35/1 FYR Vojvodina-on-the-Wold: Jenni Vartiainen - Nettiin 35/1 Farahtyn: Darin - See U At The Club 35/1 Batidas: SX - Black Video 40/1 New Caprica: Colette Carr - (We Do It) Primo 40/1 Greenfroze: Frost - Parade 45/1 Espen: Vii - Ton Goût Des Garçons 45/1 Quotosibb: Keri Hilson - Break The Ice 45/1 Tinnmark: LidoLido - Different 50/1 Isconia: Niki & The Dove - DJ, Ease My Mind 50/1 Lievant: Bon Iver - Calgary 50/1 Persephonia: Beat Connection - In The Water 50/1 Frahliso: Tying Tiffany - Lost Way 60/1 N-Lazone: Baker - All I'm Gonna Say 70/1 Lotopialand: Tim & Jean - Like What 80/1 UnoShake: Alex Band - Only One 100/1 Quintessa: Panic! At The Disco - Oh Glory 100/1 Caerfyrddia: B-A-B-E - (Itsie Bitsie Boe) Geef Maar Lekker Toe! It seems fairly wide open this month but the front runners are Herzebania with Charice getting her Agnes on, Kylienips finally sending something completely BJSC friendly and Kopecka as usual sending a potential winner which will probably come 2nd...also in with a shot are Letland (Le Kid are always in with a shot!), the surprise package from Eledan and the use of the word Robot alone should get Torchwood into contention. Dance anthems from FSR Rontvia, PRoJ and Numayania are strong outsiders whilst Utopia could be a dark horse, this month's indie and pop crossover appeal entry?
May 24, 201114 yr 6/1 for Letland? :o Do you think it's the winner? Maybe my own opinion's getting in the way but of the 7 Le Kid songs that we've heard from the album, it's my second least favourite, only in front of Telephone...it could definitely win though, but none of their other entries have even come that close to doing so... Le Kid rank; 1. We Should Go Home Together 2. Escape 3. Mercy Mercy 4. Oh My God 5. Mr Brightside 6. America 7. Telephone 2 and 3 are interchangeable depening on my mood... NB: I should point out that all of these are 9/10 moments at least, apart from Telephone which is struggling to get an 8.
May 24, 201114 yr I do not approve of this 'Telephone' hate. It is without a doubt the greatest Le Kid track EVER.
May 24, 201114 yr Author I think it's definitely up there with the favourites. I'd have it at about 3/1 when we get it through - it sounds like far more of a winner than anything else of theirs that's been sent. It sounds like the sort of thing Girls Aloud could come back with actually...
May 24, 201114 yr I do not approve of this 'Telephone' hate. It is without a doubt the greatest Le Kid track EVER. It's definitely their weak link for me :( Everything else I've heard from them is stunning! WSGHT is my favourite by a mile but then I know others find it average so each to their own!
May 24, 201114 yr I think it's definitely up there with the favourites. I'd have it at about 3/1 when we get it through - it sounds like far more of a winner than anything else of theirs that's been sent. It sounds like the sort of thing Girls Aloud could come back with actually... How is 6/1 and 4th in the odds not up there with the favourites? :lol: Perhaps I'd put it third and am being too generous for Herzebania but I stll think that Kylienips and your own entry will have slightly more widespread appeal. Le Kid have only reached the top five of BJSC once before and I haven't seen too many people proclaiming this to be their best song to date.
May 24, 201114 yr Author How is 6/1 and 4th in the odds not up there with the favourites? :lol: Perhaps I'd put it third and am being too generous for Herzebania but I stll think that Kylienips and your own entry will have slightly more widespread appeal. Le Kid have only reached the top five of BJSC once before and I haven't seen too many people proclaiming this to be their best song to date. Oh no, I meant literally as in 3/1 / 4/1 by up there with the favourites :lol: I love it but I really don't want to see it win if only because it would be SO horrifically predictable, but I have a feeling it could do the job.
May 24, 201114 yr Opening odds TO WIN from FSR Rontvia's Rontbet (always first, and never worst :funky:); 35/1 Batidas: SX - Black Video Have to admit, I'd probably agree with these odds. I guess 'Riverside' was a real one off moment of glory - that said, I considered 'More To Me' for BJFestivalen yet didn't consider the track for BJSC XXXIV so Pavel was wise to choose it - I can imagine that track doing well in this. Then again, I can't see 'More To Me' appealing to the "indie" voters - and there seems to be a couple more this time round. Who knows how this is going to pan out, it's certainly going to be an interesting set of results either way. :o
May 24, 201114 yr Oh no, I meant literally as in 3/1 / 4/1 by up there with the favourites :lol: I love it but I really don't want to see it win if only because it would be SO horrifically predictable, but I have a feeling it could do the job. Well these are only the opening odds so I'm sure they'll shorten. God knows I don't want my odds to turn out to be as accurate as ALL of the bookies were with Eurovision this year :kink: I certainly don't have it pegged as a surefire winner anyway, if only because Escape had a similar melancholy electro sort of sound and (criminally) missed the top 20 iirc? Have to admit, I'd probably agree with these odds. I guess 'Riverside' was a real one off moment of glory - that said, I considered 'More To Me' for BJFestivalen yet didn't consider the track for BJSC XXXIV so Pavel was wise to choose it - I can imagine that track doing well in this. Then again, I can't see 'More To Me' appealing to the "indie" voters - and there seems to be a couple more this time round. Who knows how this is going to pan out, it's certainly going to be an interesting set of results either way. :o I'm sure you'll do well again soon enough but whilst I like Black Video, it's perhaps a bit too subtle and not really pop enough to get a great result. More To Me will massively appeal to the pop voters and not at all to the indie voters, but that's often enough to win. Whereas to appeal massively to the indie voters but not at all to the pop voters can only get you so high as there are less of them. When it appeals massively to one group and also has some appeal to the other, that's where the crossover winners come from (Riverside, Sadness Is A Blessing etc...)
May 26, 201114 yr Oh no, I meant literally as in 3/1 / 4/1 by up there with the favourites :lol: I love it but I really don't want to see it win if only because it would be SO horrifically predictable, but I have a feeling it could do the job. Unlike gooddelta, "America" is my favourite Le Kid track (even suprassing the now classic "Mercy Mercy"), and to me, their best thus far. I do think it's a strong contender for victory, but I feel as it's regarded as such an obvious choice/potential winner it's gonna flop. I see it coming Top10, tops! I do think it's gonna be BJSC very own Amaury Vassili. Obviously I'd love "America" to win, not only because it'd win for my country but also because it's the 58th time Le Kid try to win this, it's about time we give them some recognition! :lol: So vote for them!! :w00t: Anyway, I'm not very good at these odds thing, but I'd say the following songs seem the most likely winners to me: Herzebania: Charice - Louder : everyone's favourite nu-Whitney with an Agnes-like track? score.Elëdan: Idool 2011 - More To Me : seems to be causing a stirr in this place.Torchwood: Getter Jaani - Robot : Eurovision entrant with catchy electropop track about Robot dancing? score.Yuxhaaq: Christina Perri - Arms : it just sounds epic and vote-appealing.Bignia-Zaragovina: Stella Mwangi - Lookie Lookie : everyone's favourite Eurovision entry with a mish-mash of any Far East Movement track and her own "Haba Haba", how come it's been rated so low thus far? Bear in mind I've yet to listen to SF1 songs, so I'm still not aware of Suzie McNeil's potential.
May 26, 201114 yr Author I have no idea why Lookie Lookie's getting underpredicted at all! I think it's a definite top ten.
May 26, 201114 yr I have no idea why Lookie Lookie's getting underpredicted at all! I think it's a definite top ten. True, I even considered entering it as it screamed "potential winner" to me. But dropped it when I fell in love with this other one.
May 26, 201114 yr Unlike gooddelta, "America" is my favourite Le Kid track (even suprassing the now classic "Mercy Mercy"), and to me, their best thus far. I do think it's a strong contender for victory, but I feel as it's regarded as such an obvious choice/potential winner it's gonna flop. I see it coming Top10, tops! I do think it's gonna be BJSC very own Amaury Vassili. Obviously I'd love "America" to win, not only because it'd win for my country but also because it's the 58th time Le Kid try to win this, it's about time we give them some recognition! :lol: So vote for them!! :w00t: Don't get me wrong, it's my 2nd least favourite Le Kid track thus far but it's still amazing and has a very high chance of winning (it won't do a Sognu!). Such is the quality of Le Kid that even their weaker tracks are life enhancing to me :lol:
May 26, 201114 yr Don't get me wrong, it's my 2nd least favourite Le Kid track thus far but it's still amazing and has a very high chance of winning (it won't do a Sognu!). Such is the quality of Le Kid that even their weaker tracks are life enhancing to me :lol: Sorry, I didn't mean it to sound like you thought it was sh!t. ^_^ They are indeed incredible, and I've been waiting for their album ever since my ears had a taste of "Mercy Mercy" (which was a huge summer anthem to me and my friends btw). I just don't see people voting for it as much as they would if Le Kid weren't so re-used in this competition and the fact that it seems to be one of the front-runners. :cry: I'll be happy if they stay close to Anine Stang's record for Letland. :lol:
May 26, 201114 yr Hey! Stop discussing Le Awful Kid. Idool 2011 finalists r tru winnehz. TBH can't stand either of them but then this is a pop contest so wtf do I know?
May 26, 201114 yr At least some people are predicting good things for Bignia this time :D Nowhere near as good as 'Haba Haba', and to be honest I'm not a huge fan of the song (though it's certainly a grower - maybe not the best thing for a song to be, as I don't know how many people will only listen once), but it's Stella, Eurovision & I hadn't had any other options planned. This is more of a prediction, but since I probably won't be doing odds I will say that I expect the winner to come out of semi two.
May 26, 201114 yr At least some people are predicting good things for Bignia this time :D Nowhere near as good as 'Haba Haba', and to be honest I'm not a huge fan of the song (though it's certainly a grower - maybe not the best thing for a song to be, as I don't know how many people will only listen once), but it's Stella, Eurovision & I hadn't had any other options planned. This is more of a prediction, but since I probably won't be doing odds I will say that I expect the winner to come out of semi two. My odds have five of the top six coming out of semi two :lol: I'm sure it won't turn out quite like that, but it's insane how strong that semi is!
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