Sharpshooter

Katy's now number 1 on US iTunes, has that been released in the UK yet? Assuming both of these get put on spotify? Does Drake have some competition?

Apparently Britney is already number 1 on the US iTunes, toppling her ex Justin.

We'll see what happens here, but streaming has been a huge part of why Drake has been at no.1 for so long and that's decreasing quite a bit at the moment. He'll be lucky to sell over 40k next week on streaming alone (has been 45-46k in previous weeks). Jonas Blue is/was gaining on him both on iTunes and on Spotify. If the assumption is that his download sales will increase and less people will listen to him on spotify, then perhaps the affect cancels each other out, andrather his sales just stabilise rather than significantly increase. *Clutching at straws I know*

What chances do people give Jonas blue of getting to number 1 next week? He's currently selling at a 3-1 ratio on Drake on ITunes and is rising rapidly on Spotify, hitting 200,000+ streams now. If he can increase his lead on Spotify and maintain his lead on ITunes surely he has a really good shot next week?

Drake sales are going to drop somewhat. He's below 400k for first time on spotify since god knows when and is down to 0.4 on iTunes. So possibly sales of 55k tops this week. If Chainsmokers can surpass Kungs on spotify and hold their double lead over Drake on iTunes, its possible they could beat him next week. For all Drake's dominance, he's only been holding to number 1 very narrowly for successive weeks, it doesn't take much change to knock him off. Its not as if he's been leading by 20-30k.

Chainsmokers will be his closest rival until Cold Water comes out. They'll will pass Kungs on spotify shortly also.

Drake is beginning to drop quite a bit on Spotify, down 20,000 streams from this time last week. Meanwhile Jonas Blue is beginning to develop a big lead on ITunes and is beginning to make big strides with streaming. Kungs are also increasing on spotify, closing the gap on Drake. The thing about Kungs is they've only narrowly lost the number to 1 Drake each week. If Drake does continue to drop on spotify and Kungs can hold/increase they could pip him in either of the next two weeks. Kungs are dropping on ITunes but in relation to Drake, he's only 0.53 on them, little change.

Well Cold Water will need 55k-60k which is possible, if the target was closer to 100k, that might be a different question. We are at relatively low sales levels right now for a number 1, comparatively speaking for the past few years anyway. So its not like its an insurmountable task.

What chances do people give of Bieber's Cold Water getting to number 1 and surpassing Drake? Assuming he'll need 55-60k+ to do it? I'm not sure when its due out, rumour has it its meant to be 15th July anyway.

Bieber's cold water is due to come out this month, might be a challenger, if the target is only 55-60k.

'Next month' so that could be tomorrow? Or August? Whats the chances of this getting to number 1?

Drake looks like he could be number 1 throughout the summer, maybe even till September at this rate. I remember people kept telling me on here, back on week 8/9, he only had 1-2 weeks left max, he could easily have another 10+ in him at this rate.

Why is One Dance increasing?? Its going to up above 0.5 at this rate!

Is it pretty a given he will pass Bryan Adams now? Still needs another 6 weeks after this to do it mind. He'll get around 55k this week.

Yeah for Drake to have another month or more at the top he'll need to stay around 55-60k.

Yeah an 11th week looks likely now. One step closer to the record. No one is going to knock him off anytime shortly. JT and Kungs both have had their chances.

Anyone still thinks he wont surpass Bryan Adams? I've been floating this for a few weeks now and I'm increasingly confident I'm right.

As I said before, there's very good chance now Drake will break Bryan Adams is record of 16 weeks at number 1.

Is it very likely now that Drake will surpass Bryan Adams's record of 16 weeks for the longest number 1 ever?

Does anyone think if failed to get number with Heroes this week he could do it next week still?

Nah this boost will be big for a good few days yet, lots of press coverage still to come, his funeral etc. He's definitely a contender for the number 1 spot and he has a real chance. The Cascada scenario might play out again mind I rate his chances as pretty good. Is Bieber's record of 8 songs charting in the top 40 under threat?

That would mean at 0.4-0.5 they're only drawing level now, plus they've got to make up the fact that they've lost the past 4 days. 3 days to go, but like I say these campaigners will know whats needed to win and will adjust accordingly. If its 0.4 they need from here on in, they'll do it, if its 0.3 they need or 0.1 or whatever it is they'll do what it takes. It will be interesting to if they keep this up but it looks like they've got the bit between their teeth now. For some people it is, I don't dispute some people are buying it out of interest/good will, but the fact that Bieber's the poster boy who to beat doesn't help. :lol:

Fairly likely if the campaign is determined enough and knows what numbers it needs to get.

It would be nice if people who bought NHS Choir are doing it because they like the song (or for charity reasons), instead of trying to cynically BLOCK somebody they don't like getting it. No doubt a lot of people are buying NHS Choir for good reasons, but its sudden surge isn't a lot to do with the fact its become a popular song all of a sudden, rather to stop Bieber getting it. Some people downloading 10 times and don't even bother to listen to the song even once. Wouldn't it be nice if we had a Christmas chart battle like that famous one in 1994 between Mariah Carey and East 17 when whoever won we could actually conclude and say that the winner was the more popular song of choice to listen to that week, rather than some cynical attempt to piss another artist and their fans off?

The problem is that these campaigns often are successful. Simply because they have a determined group of followers, in that when the data is presented in front of them, they know what they have to do in order to win. They know Bieber's got to be pushed down to 0.4-0.5 (and probably more since they are making up for the previous 4 days deficit), this will be known to the NHS choir followers who subsequently will be spreading the message that the rate of downloads has to be increased, radio shows then pass on the message urging everyone “it needs more sales” etc. Bieber’s followers are at a disadvantage because they are downloading the song freely because they like it, not necessarily to get it to number 1. Its exactly how Rage of the Machine won against Joe McElderry. RATM followers knew the numbers likely required to beat the X factor and were downloading like mad until they got a required total that was likely to defeat him. If NHS Choir know that 0.3-0.4 for the rest of the week will win it for them, then that's what they'll target. Its just simple chart manipulation really.