Delicate

No, it baffles me that Dancing charted in Germany (at a decently high position, I might add), whilst Padam didn't even crack the Spotify 200.

I guess with streams now being halved each download becomes more crucial since they contribute more to its overall weekly total than ever before. Say for instance in a week Padam sold 15,000 units of which 13,500 units come from streaming and 1,500 from downloads. That week 10% of its overall units came from downloads. Then in the week after that Padam hits ACR and its overall chart units fall to 8,250, of which 6,750 come from streaming (half of the 13,500 the week prior). Now the 1,500 downloads make up nearly 20% of its overall chart units.

I would guess that Padam sold somewhere around 11,000 (8,000 streaming, 1,500 cassettes, and 1,500 downloads) units this week to stay at number 39.

I would like to think that Padam might be able to surpass Especially For You (12 weeks) and tie with I Should Be So Lucky and Higher (13 weeks). Week 12 in the top 40 will come with the album release, and week 13 (although much less likely) the week after that. Wow is at 15 weeks, that's going to be quite hard to beat, and Head's 20 weeks seems more or less impossible to get to.

While I agree with a lot of what you say, Ed Sheeran's numbers are not really indicative of what Kylie is going to do, since most of his albums are bought by the general album-buying public while Kylie's main album buyers are her fanbase. The former group is affected by existing market conditions as well as the artist's ability to churn out new huge hits, whilst the latter continues to buy music released by their favourites regardless of hit singles and so sales for these artists are a lot more consistent over time. Additionally, Kylie's main demographic is the one least affected by the cost of living crisis, as her fans tend to skew older, and so they will have a greater likelihood of buying the album regardless of the crisis. The lockdown thing doesn't really hold up considering how bad album sales were during lockdown; if you recall, Disco was the fastest-selling album of 2020 by a solo artist with 'only' 55,000 units sold. Had people been forced to buy albums due to a lack of alternatives in lockdown, overall album sales would've been a lot higher. This is what the BMG president said about Disco's performance compared to Golden when early reports of the former outperforming the latter came out: “We’re 100% ahead of where we were on Golden already. That’s on every metric: streaming, social media, Amazon pre-orders, D2C pre-orders, video views. And what's very exciting is the US response.... and there’s already lots of interest at US radio." We know that thus far Tension has outperformed Disco on streaming, social media, video views, and US radio response, and that Tension has had multiple sold out variants on Amazon pre-orders, so it only makes sense for us to assume that Tension is overall doing better than Disco was at this stage. Anything less than 50,000 would not only be shocking but a disappointment for Kylie at this stage, and that's a testament to her longevity.

Okay with Tension releasing next month, I think it's time we start predicting what its first week figures are gonna look like. I want it to do 70,000 and blow us all away, but that seems a tad bit too high so I'm gonna keep my expectations a little lower and say that it's going to debut with 60,000 units.

I'm predicting 36 by Friday, that looks like an aesthetic number.

Those aren't extra views, it seems to be recovering from a few bad weeks. It averaged 300,000 views a day from January to May, then dropped to 225,000 a day in June, and then to 180,000 a day in July. This is the lowest its daily average has been since last August, so I feel like there was some other issue that brought Head down. Maybe an algorithmic change?

I have a feeling single 2 might not be too far away at this point. I am a little bit confused as to how they are going to deal with the new song stateside, considering Padam won't be officially sent to US pop radio till 1 August and it seems like it could actually do a little damage there (even if not's the second coming of Head). They need whatever damage they can get before Kylie starts her residency there later this October. Whatever happens, I am genuinely excited to see Kylie's next move. It's been a while since I've felt this good about an era. Everything's going perfectly thus far!

I am a little bit confused about what the first number denotes. Panel sales? What exactly are they? Is the second figure the total amount they sold in 1988?

From what I think, if the US residency is going to happen later this year, then work on it must have already begun. Kylie might even be starting rehearsals for that soon, since she won't get time to do that when Tension comes out in September.

Yes but in the early 2000s it would've exited the chart by week 15 and finish with under 300,000 sales, while now it's going to go upwards of 20 weeks hopefully with 'just' a number 8 peak and probably eventually end up going platinum.

It's quite late, but I guess they're trying to make it so that it peaks right as Tension comes out?

Where is Padam on Hot Hits right now?

^ Crazy to see that Say Something alone is outstreaming the entirety of Golden, and it's not even the third most streamed track from Disco.

At this point it's probably earning more Spotify streams from the US than the UK. It earned 2.4 million streams there the week before this one (so around 350,000 streams a day), and the number 200 on Spotify US has 350,000 streams on average. Considering the other big platforms in the US are Apple Music and Amazon Music (both of which are mostly dominated by local acts), the bulk of Kylie's streams there probably come from Spotify. That could be anywhere between 200,000 and 250,000 streams. Comparatively her biggest day on Spotify UK was with 175,000 streams. This means that between a third and a quarter of Padam's total consumption is coming from the US, much higher than those for any Kylie single in the streaming era.

If we assume Disco averages 250 units weekly, it should hit platinum by its 12th anniversary in 2032. While that may seem like a long while, this doesn't take into account any increments in its sale due to vinyl re-issues for its anniversaries and such, and those alone should speed up the process by several months, if not years. There's also the fact that music consumption and catalogue sales are rising year-by-year (even Kylie's own catalogue has increased massively in streams as of late). That should result in the album moving more streaming units as the years go by, and we're not even taking into account some song from the album taking off on social media (though that's highly unlikely). All things considered, Disco will most likely hit platinum sometime in the next 10 years, and almost certainly at some point in the next 20 years.

It is the AI version that you heard, but Britney was indeed offered Get Outta My Way. Her team wasn't swift enough in their reaction, though, so Kylie snatched it.

How long does everyone realistically expect Padam to spend on the charts? I don't want to jinx things, but I think it probably will stay charting even on ACR till the album comes out, even if it's in the 90s by then. It'll obviously get a big boost when the album comes, and that should reset ACR momentarily, so it should have a few more weeks guaranteed after that too. I am expecting somewhere between 25 & 30 weeks, though I know it could very well have a lot less longevity and end up spending half that amount on the chart. I would love for it to spend 20 weeks on the chart at least, that seems like a good number and would make it only Kylie's 7th song to spend upwards of 20 weeks on the chart.

The Jax Jones remix debuted with 43,751 streams, and across its three versions Padam totaled 946,694 streams yesterday.

Kylie's team really needs to start exerting pressure on Spotify's editors to place Padam in the top ten of Hot Hits UK and in the top 40 of Today's Top Hits at this point. I think it has reached its organic peak at this point, and the only way for it to grow significantly from this point onwards is if the backing from Spotify is there too.

I was expecting 100,000 for Midnights and it did 200,000, so I'm going to have lofty expectations and say that it will debut with upwards of 100,000 units.

Padam is slowly making its way up the US radio charts. (t has currently 81 spins on US pop radio and needs 194 spins to enter the top 50, so it should be top 70 on the format about now, and it also has been added by two pop radio stations and one hot adult contemporary (HAC) radio station, and is also top 20 on dance radio and top 200 on overall US radio. None of these are mind blowing numbers, but the fact that Padam has done all of this without even having an impacts date (so an official US radio release date) in sight is really promising. Kylie's last single to chart in the top 100 of US pop radio was All I See, and that was specifically designed to be a US hit, given multiple major TV performances, officially released to multiple formats, and even remixed with a US rapper who had just come off a number one hit. All that only took it to number 55 on the weekly pop radio chart, so Padam being top 70 without any of that bodes really well for its single release. BMG needs to release it to radio right now, even if it just scratches the top 50 on pop and top 30 on HAC that's a bigger hit than any Kylie single stateside in nearly 20 years.

Right, it has around 200,000 units from streaming alone, so I would expect it to be around 280,000 overall units.

Sorry, I forgot to mention the streaming-only part! I'm fairly confident that when all is said and done this will end up among longest-running chart hits. Her current top ten is: #1. Santa Baby: 31 weeks #2. Can't Get You Out of My Head: 30 weeks #3. In Your Eyes: 23 weeks #4. Wow: 21 #5/6. Higher/Kids: 20 weeks #7. All The Lovers: 19 weeks #8. I Should Be So Lucky: 17 weeks #9. 2 Hearts: 16 weeks #10. Slow: 15 weeks Hoping this ends up being true!