Delicate

Starting in its 10th week, and if its weekly sales have declined three weeks in a row. Padam Padam was released on 18 May, so its 10th chart week would be the one starting 21 July.

ACR is gonna take effect starting the week of 21 July, so I don't expect her to be top 40 in August (unless of course she continues to defy expectations as late as then).

I am not sure if I read it here or somewhere else, but one of the reasons Kylie is campaigning so hard in America right now for Padam Padam could be the fact that the Grammys have introduced a brand new Best Pop Dance Recording category, and Padam Padam fits the bill for that category to a 't'. I know the chances of them nominating a non-American hit, especially by a 50-something woman, are nil, but in the 2000s Kylie had each of Love at First Sight, Come Into My World, Slow, and I Believe In You get nominated for the Best Dance Recording category even though none besides LAFS were stateside hits, and CIMW even won it. She even got an album nomination for it in 2009 for X, even though that album flopped in the US. I therefore think targeting the US about now is not such a bad idea.

If that happens, it would probably shoot up to a million streams daily. Even if the UK impact is minimal, the overall streams it has on Spotify would rise greatly.

I mean to be fair even 3 weeks ago we would've all been accused of dreaming if we expected it to debut in the top 30 and then rise over the successive two weeks, but here we are.

I am going to go ahead and say this is going to get to number 12 this week, with just under 20,000 units sold. Regardless of where it ends up, this is the best chart run we've had for a Kylie single in a decade and I'm sure this will continue charting for several more weeks, hopefully at least until it's eligible for ACR.

I think that with how effective BMG has been with the promo thus far if there's any chance of going top 10 they will pull every last stop to get it. I can see multiple remixes, acoustic versions, a lyric video, super-fast shipping physicals etc. all being put to use concurrently in that scenario.

Annoyingly with these sales it would've been a top ten hit a month ago when the number 10 songs was selling 18,000 units, and now it's struggling to remain top 20 with these numbers.

That brings it to 220,561 UK Spotify streams for this week. Comparatively she had earned less than 166,000 streams (probably around 158,000) from UK Spotify up until this point last week. That's almost a 40% increase in consumption. That, along with the fact that single is up to number 16 on Apple Music (compared to number 75 until this point last week) makes me optimistic that the streams might help get it to a new peak this week.

Looking back at it, does anyone know how Wow managed to chart for so many weeks? 21 weeks and it wasn't even the lead. Was it because it was not hampered by the delayed release like the other Parlo singles were? It makes sense to me, high digital downloads kept it afloat for several weeks before its physical release, and that release helped it gain a high peak too, ultimately resulting in a lengthy run with healthy sales. Should've been the strategy they employed with all singles from X era and onwards. Crazy to me that the Golden era was the first Kylie era where all singles were on sale as soon as they were released to radio.

I don't want to set myself up for disappointment so I'm thinking it will fall considerably, though still remain in the top 50, maybe even top 40.

Correct. Disappointingly, the last song by Kylie as a lead to even chart there was Crystallise in June 2014, which peaked at number 88. She had Starstruck in May 2021 which charted at number 55, but she's the featured artist there. No song from the Golden and Disco eras charted in Ireland.

Spinning Around, All The Lovers, and maybe even Love At First Sight should all be platinum in the next 3-4 years.

I've now recalculated my earlier values to reflect this new proportion. Say Something sold 4,000 vinyls during Disco release week? I thought it was ~2,500-ish based.

That makes sense, I realised that based on the gains made by Spinning Around between August 2019 and August 2020 which caused it to go gold it must be selling upwards of 40,000 units a year and that should get it to 150,000 streaming units by now at least, and taking into account the growth in Kylie's streaming it might even be close 180,000 streams. That gave me a ratio of roughly 80% premium to 20% ad-supported.

https://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/k...bdsGwQMngoBtFtY The OCC released an updated list of her most streamed tracks. Good to see that even Kids, her tenth most streamed song these days, has more streams than CGYOOMH did back just 5 years ago. Let's do a quick rundown of her top ten most streamed songs and the amount of units they've earned since June 2014 (when streaming began to be counted). Note that the streaming units are based on the ratio that around 85% of streams are paid streams (based on the information provided by Jay in the next post): #1. Santa Baby: 74M (~647,500 units) #2. Can't Get You Out of My Head: 57M (~498,800 units) #3. Love at First Sight: 22M (~192,500 units) #4. Spinning Around: 21.6M (~189,000 units) #5. Dancing: 21.1M (~184,600 units) #6. All The Lovers: 15M (~131,300 units) #7. Say Something: 13M (~113,800 units) #8. The Loco-Motion: 12.4M (~108,500 units) #9. Better The Devil You Know: 12.1M (~105,900 units) #10. Kids: 11M (~96,300 units) Because we do not have exact proportions for these songs' paid and ad-supported streams, these are just estimates at best and the final figures might be higher or slightly lower.

Release Kylie Christmas for the third time, this time under Kylie Christmas: Snow Queen Edition: Step Back In Time Collection with another two discs for the SBIT tracks so that we could fit Santa Baby on there too B-)

Had Kylie had a Fever-esque era in late 2021 instead of late 2001, CGYOOMH would probably be approaching 2 billion streams and the other Fever era singles would've all been closing in over 500 million, with IYE and LAFS both probably around 700-800 million. Comparatively the album would've probably just gone platinum instead of five-times platinum, so I guess there's that too. I think the BL era singles would've really benefitted from being released in a more singles-oriented time period though.

Not sure how I feel about the delay. On one hand, I'm glad she's taking her time with the album (and the idea of new inspiration sounds very promising), but on the other I'm too excited for a new Kylie album to wait any longer. I am probably the one who wants this, but I'd love for Kylie to do a big band album a la the KylieX2008 version of Wow and the rendition of Love at First Sight she performed on Jools Holland in 2010. She would sound killer in that setting.

I wonder how long it will be till Confetti goes platinum. It was at 250,000 in July, so I think it should be at around 265,000 now. Hopefully by its third anniversary it will be there.

The songs above it are: 1 SHAKE IT OFF 2 LOVE STORY 3 BLANK SPACE 4 I KNEW YOU WERE TROUBLE 5 WE ARE NEVER EVER GETTING BACK TOGETHER 6 I DON'T WANNA LIVE FOREVER (FIFTY SHADES 7 LOOK WHAT YOU MADE ME DO 8 WILDEST DREAMS 9 BAD BLOOD 10 STYLE 11 EVERYTHING HAS CHANGED 12 ME TAYLOR SWIFT FT BRENDON URIE 13 YOU NEED TO CALM DOWN 14 YOU BELONG WITH ME 15 22 Everything from the 11th to the 15th spot is doing a fairly limited amount of recurrent sales (except maybe You Belong With Me), thanks to either a re-recording being out or because of generally poor longevity, so Lover shouldn't have much trouble going up to number 11. It's gonna be a little harder to get higher than that, but I do expect that Bad Blood will eventually be overtaken by Lover thanks to the latter's superior daily streams and the former getting a newer version that will detract attention from the original.

Wildest Dreams is closing in on a million units sold and it only reached number 40 here, way lower than even Style. Both these songs were a lot more popular than their chart placements suggested, since they peaked a lot lower because of their absence on Spotify. Had they been on Spotify, their digital sales (Style, for instance, is at nearly 250,000 digital downloads in the UK) would've been a lot lower and streams a lot higher.

Update to this: 1- Reputation will go 2x platinum in June 2023 (1 year faster than last prediction) 2- Evermore will go platinum in September 2023 (3 months slower than last prediction) 3- Red (Taylor's Version) will go platinum in February 2024 4- Lover will go 2x platinum in September 2024 (0.75 years faster than last prediction) 5- Folklore will go 2x platinum in December 2024 (6 months faster than initially predicted) 6- Red will go 3x platinum in February 2025 (on par with initial prediction) 7- 1989 will go 6x platinum in mid-2026 (0.75 years faster than last predicted) It's a little early to predict when Midnights is going to hit its next milestone (2x platinum), but since its already at 311,000 units less than a month after release, I wouldn't be surprised if it hits it as early as summer 2023, considering it only needs to sell around 10,000 units a week to get there and it's probably gonna remain above that for a fairly long time. That means Midnights is on track to outsell all of Taylor's post-1989 albums by the next summer, even faster than it'll do in the US.

Units moved since last update (as of 11 February 2022): 1989: ~88,000 (~2,200 units per week) Folklore: ~87,000 (~2,200 units per week) Lover: ~76,000 (~1,900 units per week) Red (Taylor's Version): ~66,000 (~1,600 units per week) Reputation: ~58,000 (~1,500 units per week) Evermore: ~55,000 (~1,400 units per week) Speak Now: ~33,000 (~800 units per week) Red: ~24,000 (~600 units per week) Fearless: ~17,000 (~400 units per week) Taylor Swift: ~12,000 (~300 units per week)

As of 27 October 2022: Shake It Off: 2,415,000 Love Story: 1,680,000 Blank Space: 1,630,000 Look What You Made Me Do: 1,035,000 Style: 872,000 Willow: 533,000 As of 17 November 2022: Albums: 1989 - 1,527,000 Red - 829,000 Fearless - 682,000 Reputation - 554,000 Lover - 418,000 Folklore - 389,000 Speak Now - 335,000 Midnights: 311,000 Evermore - 241,000 Taylor Swift - 201,000 Red TV - 197,000 Fearless TV - 108,000