Qween

I can’t believe we’re here again. I’m not trying to catastrophise, but I genuinely fear for the future of humanity with Trump as president. The world is in a precarious enough position as it is, without a loose cannon at the helm of the most powerful nation on earth. All the more chilling is the not insignificant chance J D Vance becomes president before 2028 and enacts the full horror of Project 2025.

There was a twitter post a few days ago suggesting 8PM was the ''ideal'' call time, but I'll take 8.45...

I know it's early and I shouldn't; but Virginia is giving me 2016 flashbacks

What my head says - i just can’t see enough ticket splitters in NC for Trump to win, if polling is right and Robinson is down double digits What my heart says

Kamala winning is: A) an important reminder that fascism is not welcome and is not a path to election victory. B) an opportunity to start the process of moving beyond the horrendously divisive and dangerous rhetoric of the Trump decade C) a clear message that the US recognises that the situation in Palestine is wrong and Israel/Netanyahu are guilty of very serious crimes, BUT the solution is not Trumps approach of “let them do whatever they want as long as I’m not involved” or Jill Stein’s fantasy scenarios. I fully understand potential frustration with Biden/Democrats more generally - he/they haven’t handled the war as I would have liked, however it should be abundantly clear to anyone who hasn’t had their mind warped by right wing social media that what Trump is offering is orders of magnitude worse for both Palestine and global security.

Is Kamala funding the Trump campaign? That’s the only way any of this makes any sense.

I’ll do what I did for the General Election. Go to bed and get up around 3/4am. I think we’ll have a very strong idea by then of the direction of travel, even if an official call won’t come until much later in the day.

I think the best shot of them holding the senate is Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell seems to be running Rick Scott close, however he has a nasty habit of winning tight races by ~1% which is probably the result again. Dan Osborn is probably a very outside chance, but given the relative weakness of the Trump vote in other deep red states like Kansas (based on polling), then who knows. The other one I’m watching is Missouri - Lucas Kunce v Josh Hawley. Alas I don’t think it’s that competitive but that slimy git losing would be a very nice outcome. Re. The House, it’s definitely going Democratic, they only need to flip a handful of seats and they’re leading in about 15 of their target list. It won’t be a thumping majority, but enough to effectively legislate unlike the current House, although the lack of legislating is as much by choice as by gift.

In other news, Ann Selzer has released her final poll of Iowa and Kamala is up 3. Of course that could be entirely wrong, but she has an excellent track record. It certainly tracks with several of the other pollsters who have chosen not to here to a tie (Ohio Trump +3 today too, for example) and aligns with my overall view of where the results will land - something between the 2 Obama victories.

I don’t think the Republican showing in early voting in Nevada is truly reflective of the outcome, for a number of reasons. Chief among them the majority of registered voters are now NPA. Yes they need to break decisively for Kamala for her to win, but all polling suggests they will.

He’s already planning for it - rallies in New York and California, states he won’t even come close to winning are designed to rouse as many people as possible in advance of next week. Every legal case they’ve brought in the last 3/6 months is also part of the plan. With the nakedly partisan Supreme Court in play, who knows what could happen. My hope is Kamala wins a convincing enough victory in enough states that it’s impossible to concoct any kind of realistic argument election interference “stole it”.

He’s 78. However, aside from his age he is quite evidently and obviously both physically and mentally unwell. The most likely diagnosis being Alzheimer’s. If the media were in any way willing to treat Trump with the same approach as Biden (and Democrats) it would be dominating the dialogue. Of course the people behind Trump know this, which is why JD Vance is the VP pick.

The one somewhat hopeful outworking of the last few weeks is that I don’t think Trump will be physically or mentally capable of running again in 2028, so when he loses this will FINALLY, hopefully, be the end of Trump. I don’t think Trumpism will go anywhere, but as shown with the primaries and many dozens of other elections, few others get the same near total lack of media scrutiny as Trump himself and have rarely proven such an electoral threat. I’m choosing to be positive and hope that Kamala learns from the mistakes of Biden and goes BIG with the necessary changes (mainly ending the filibuster and expanding the Supreme Court).

Dems voted by mail/in person early because of the pandemic (and associated messaging), with a lower election day turnout. I think that reverts to a more standard breakdown this time. On the other hand, the Republicans voting early seemingly are high-propensity voters, but that may well have the impact of reducing their election day turnout. Essentially, I don’t think basing analysis or making comparisons versus 2020 is going to give a particularly reflective image of the partisan vote/turnout. Will find out in 10 days or so, but that’s my take.

The closer it gets to E-day, the more convinced I am Kamala has this in the bag. Primarily because I don’t trust the polling at all, especially not the last few weeks. On top of that, I think the early voting and voter registration data isn’t reflecting A) the changes in how people are voting compared to 2020 (Dems less likely to vote early, Republicans earlier) and B) that Kamala is likely to win a higher proportion of Republicans and NPA’s than Trump. I think she wins all 7 swing states, comes within 1/2 points in Florida and 2/3 in Texas. I’m just hoping against hope that Dan Osborn can pull of a surprise in Nebraska and/or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell or Corin Allred win in Florida/Texas. That all being said, I have zero confidence in the strength of the US system to stand up to the crazy that’s going to come down the line when he loses. One key point from his Nazi greatest hits playlist from last night is the (implied) suggestion that Mike Johnson has “a little secret” to steal the election for him.

I knew I was 4th in the all time list, but didn’t know I’d crossed 20k points *.* There’s a massive gap to the top 3 though, so don’t think I’ll rise any higher but yay for sort of consistency.

Yaaas at Singerpurear making it, such a bop *.*

8th is a little disappointing, but one of my less common top 10 positions so that’s nice

Ooh the comeback I wasn’t expecting! Would be fab to land my first medal position in 2 years

What a start! Thank you everyone for the (mostly high) points so far.

I’m very excited for my entry this month, the most I have been in a long time *.*

08.0 End Of An Era 11.0 Houdini 07.5 Training Season 09.5 These Walls 06.5 Whatcha Doing 07.0 French Exit 07.5 Illusion 10.0 Falling Forever 07.0 Anything for Love 06.5 Maria 09.0 Happy For You

Mid-Year 2024 Update [Ongoing from 2023] Streaming The Crown (Season 6) Doctor Who [2005 - 2020] (Series 1-9) [Ongoing] Young Royals (Season 3) Lessons in Chemistry Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Season 1-4) Mandy (Season 3) Loot (Season 2) The Reluctant Traveller with Eugene Levy (Season 2) Monarch: Legacy of Monsters (Season 1) Slow Horses (Seasons 1-3) Mary and George (Season 1) Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power (Season 1) Palm Royale (Season 1) Loot (Season 2) Star Trek: Discovery (Season 5) The Good Doctor (Season 7) Hijack (Season 1) Clarkson's Farm (Season 3) Sharp Objects Julia (Seasons 1-2) Baby Reindeer Bridgerton (Season 3) Heartbreak High (Season 2) Sweet Tooth (Season 3) Exploding Kittens (Season 1) The Completely Made Up Adventures of Dick Turpin (Season 1) Heartstopper (Season 3) Disclaimer Pieces of Her 30 Rock (Season 1) [Ongoing] Ted Lasso (Season 1-3) The Perfect Couple Kaleidoscope Mare of Easttown The Undoing Kaos The New Look (Season 1) Terrestrial Only Connect (Series 19) Only Connect (Series 20) The Masked Singer (Series 5) Killing Sherlock: Lucy Worsley on the Case of Arthur Conan Doyle Union with David Olusoga The Traitors UK (Series 2) The Traitors: Uncloaked England's Forgotten Queen: The Life and Death of Lady Jane Grey Race Across the World (Season 4) Interior Design Masters (Season 5) The Great Stand Up To Cancer Bake Off (Season 7) Doctor Who [2022-] (Season 1) The Great British Sewing Bee (Season 10) Douglas Is Cancelled The Great British Bake Off (Season 15)

If it’s not too late I’ll throw my hat in the ring (Altyr Muunilinst).

Not feeling at all confident, but would be nice to make back to back finals for the first time this year