Davidson

I definitely think this is stronger than ‘Don’t Say Love’ but I am not sure it’s the smash people are claiming. I think the afrobeats vibe and Ayra Starr absolutely make this song. Ayra’s verse is so dynamic and full of hidden melodies that really elevate the second part of this song. I think it suffers from not having enough of these same dynamic melodies included elsewhere in the song. I had the same problem with ‘Don’t Say Love’. The garage vibe and the instrumental were fantastic but it wasn’t a massive earworm… the chorus seemed underwritten to me. I sadly think the chorus of this has the same problem - sure repeating ‘My Love’ is catchy, but are there any more melodies and hidden hooks to reveal themselves on further listens? The chorus melody just seems too one dimensional sadly. Again, a lot of potential but underwritten.

If #17 is today with the CD’s added, I’m going to predict #19 tomorrow as final chart position. Cassettes will have to sell like hotcakes to make a big difference next week. How many did Padam sell again - 1.2K or there abouts?

I’m going to guess: 1. Kylie Minogue (58k) 2. Drake (31k) 3. Doja Cat (27k) Kylie has this in the bag. However, I can see Doja and Drake both winning the streaming race and doing 12-15k on streaming each at least. But their physicals won’t be super strong.

Exactly. The main thing they can pull out for week 2 is a 59p reduction, extended mix to give a bit of a downloads boost, but with there not seeing much of a big campaign to buy multiple versions of the downloads already available, and the downloads seeming weak anyway I just don’t see that being a massive booster. If they had cassettes or another format for Week 2 then maybe it could stay top 40 so who knows. But yes I’m fully expecting a 15-49-60-39 type run to the four weeks maybe…

I predict a #18 debut which will be its peak. However, I think it could have a lot more staying power than first single and can gain in time a little more. It definitely sounds more like a potential hit.

I think they have done a great job with securing top 20 this week. I’m predicting maybe a #16 type entry. I do think we should be expecting a Leigh-Anne ‘Don’t Say Love’ type moment next week though with it exiting the top 40. They could have saved CD’s back until next week and got a low top 30 with two weeks top 30 in a row if they wanted to, but obviously prioritised a higher peak over giving it a few weeks stability. I did say I thought this was a riskier move to keep playlisting on board but oh well. I think hopefully it could re-enter the top 40 for album release week and that would be great to see it at least get two weeks top 40. I just think we need to lower our expectations as ‘Padam’ has got people too excited. There is nothing about ‘Tension’ that screams GP smash or cross-over appeal the way ‘Padam’ did. ‘Tension’ is a left-of field gay bop and that’s about it.

I do think this is a bit optimistic given ‘Padam Padam’ held #1 on iTunes all week whilst ‘Tension’ is down to #3 already. I’m predicting maybe 3.5-4k downloads for the week given the hold back, but the downloads definitely seem down from Padam. Also I just don’t see the amount of a campaign like last time for CD’s. The bundles should help but I can maybe see 3.5-4k for CD sales if shipped on Thursday. So around 7-8k added from downloads and CD’s together. I’m predicting a total of around 13-15k overall for the end of week total, which would have charted somewhere between #17 and #21 last week. I think it should manage low top 20 this week, but definitely can’t see a top 10.

What’s everyone’s predictions for opening sales for this then?

Brilliant to see it still rising on iTunes. Looks the midweek chart info has encouraged some more downloads.

This is really rather brilliant isn’t it??? What a lovely surprise.

That already sounds waaaaaay better than the first two singles. I’m sad this is only 7 songs.

Yes, to be fair I think that would still be an amazing result. My only concern with the high peak straight away strategy is making sure radio and playlisting doesn’t jump ship too early as they don’t see the ‘natural’ rise like Padam… and therefore the second chart week looks like it’s over before it’s started. Hopefully that can be avoided by some nice hold ups on Apple and some rises again later in the week on Spotify. They may have some playlisting adds coming hopefully.

Looks like they are really trying to get a top 20 peak for week 1 then, and a high peak to start with. Happy with that strategy but I hope they have something else planned for week 2. I don’t want to see it go from top 20 to on verge of leaving top 40 immediately. I had previously thought they would have saved the CD’s for next week or the week after. I suppose cassettes and extended mix could help again? And they are probably hoping for a natural rise on streaming.

Spotify Numbers for yesterday: 489,927 Down around 130,000 from the day before but honestly that’s a great hold. I was expecting it to lose around 150-200k so very happy with that number. Puts total Spotify streams at 1,360,000 already!

76 first day on Spotify is a really nice start for Kylie. Hope it can stay top 200 for day two.

And that’s only from around 7 hours of streaming right?

If Disco can manage 55k with no hits, I do think this should crack 60k. I’m guessing 62/63k opening.

Surely that’s inevitable at this stage? Downloads wise she will have those fanbase buys first week and if she’s already top 40 on Apple, her streaming is starting strong. A top 40 only needed to shift 8.5/9k to make it last week. I reckon she should at least match Padam’s opening chart position, with the potential to open even higher and could even pip UK top 20? Maybe I’m being optimistic but I think it’s going to be another strong opening.

121k now - seems to be rising fast hour by hour. I think probably around 450k in first 24hrs but would love 500k.

55 for Kylie at this stage is insane… I’m so happy that Padam has really helped out her streaming numbers for the follow up. Top 40 by end of day please..

This is definitely the strongest offering this era so far for me. The video is the best video of the year so far and she’s serving female Kendrick in her flow. Sold.

Nice climbs for ‘Prada’ - hope it can go top 40 tomorrow and can be another hit for RAYE

'Big Energy' and 'Oh! Santa' are better songs than 'Butterfly' and 'The Roof'?? Wowwww At least 'Anytime I Need a Friend' is top 20, as it should be.

‘Make It Happen’ is her most underrated single for me. It’s every bit as joyous and fun as ‘Dreamlover’ and ‘Fantasy’ for me. Just wonderful.

Honestly these live performances are incredible but what do we expect? She is definitely one of the best vocalists of our generation. Can’t get this EP off. Every track is a moment.