Dust2

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/appl...-two-years.html My guesstimate: Spotify is generating about $500-600 million a year in revenue right now. It grew from 1 million to 3 million in a space of ~10 months (March 2011 to Jan 2012). January, 2010:------------ 250,000 paid subscribers March 17, 2010:----------- 320,000 July 20, 2010: ---------------- 500,000 December 8, 2010: ------ 750,000 March 8, 2011:--------------- 1,000,000 July 14, 2011: -----------------1,600,000 Sept 21, 2011: ---------------- 2,000,000 Nov 23, 2011: ------------------2,500,000 Jan 26, 2012: -------------------3,000,000 March 17, 2012: ----------------???? (Spotify recently said that it was "WELL NORTH" of 3 millions but didn't specify). Spotify just expanded to Germany (82 million population) and will debut in Australia and New Zealand by the end of this month. Between these 3 countries, that's 100 million people. However, I don't see Spotify overtaking Itunes (worldwide) within 2 years. That's too optimistic. 4-5 years is doable however for subscription music (spotify/deezer/rhapsody/muve music etc..). By the end of 2012, there will be around 18-20 million paying subscribers for subscription music service. That's about $2 billion a year in revenue.

http://www.billboard.com/news/fun-s-we-are...006455972.story We Are Young #1 with 1.1 million on-demand streams Somebody that I used to know #2 with 776,000 . . Glad You Came #7 with 472,000 on-demand streams favor alternative

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...=googlenews_wsj Billboard has generated test charts in recent weeks, letting its editors compare their charts with and without the new data. The differences are subtle, with the streaming data boosting certain songs in the rankings. The effect is most notable on electronic dance-music songs, which don't get much radio airplay and tend to attract younger listeners who may not bother buying songs from Apple Inc.'s iTunes Store. For the week ended March 4, songs by two popular electronic acts—M83 and Skrillex—would have made it into the lower reaches of the Hot 100 if streaming-music data had been counted, but they didn't appear in the chart as published in Billboard. Still, those songs' theoretical positions—No. 77 and No. 85, respectively—highlight that the new chart represents a tweak, not an overhaul. Otherwise, the ranking changes are mostly subtle shifts up or down a few notches. In the most recent week, none of the top four songs would have been affected. Mr. Werde noted that people tend to gravitate to the same songs, whether they are buying them, renting them or listening to the radio. "People really like hits," he said. For now, the new chart doesn't include several popular online destinations including Google Inc.'s YouTube, the video-streaming site that is effectively the Web's most widely used on-demand music service thanks to its trove of millions of music videos. Both Billboard's Mr. Werde and a YouTube spokeswoman said the two sides are working on a way to add the video site's data.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/music_blog...al-streams.html http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...=googlenews_wsj http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MK-BS868_CHART_NS_20120313180603.jpg 625 million on-demand streams last week at $0.005 per stream, that is the equivalent of $3.125 million or ~ 3 million MP3 sold per week. Each week, about 25-28 million MP3 are sold. My guess at this NEW Hot 100 calculation 1 download = 200 on-demand streams = 1,000 radio audience

It's only a matter of time before the UK Chart follow Billboard example. 200 on-demand streams = 1 download

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/music_blog...al-streams.html http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...=googlenews_wsj http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MK-BS868_CHART_NS_20120313180603.jpg 625 million on-demand streams last week at $0.005 per stream, that is the equivalent of $3.125 million or ~ 3 million MP3 sold per week. Each week, about 25-28 million MP3 are sold.

This is the most likely form of music consumption worldwide in the near future. paying XX a month for unlimited music downloads + unlimited talk, texts and data on a smartphone.

Muve Music is created by a prepaid phone carrier with about 5 million customers. Just after 1 year, 600,000 have signed up for it. Imagine if the like of of Verizon or AT&T who have about 200 million users between them do the same................... Subscription music might be dominate (not by Spotify) but by the major wireless carriers in the near future. 20% of Verizon and AT&T subscribers = 40 millions paying subscribers in the USA alone. The equivalent of some 5 billions Itunes download each year. http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/appsb...-global-rollout Muve Music subscription service looking to expand beyond the US With 600k paying subcribers, bundling unlimited music with voice, texts and data is working well

Warblers who? They contribute like 5% so they don't count lol.

It's in the advertisers best interest to prevent manipulation since they are the one who paying the bill. Which mean service that relies on ad (like VEVO) will do its best to prevent cheating. With digital, it's easy to prevent this sort of thing with just some software code. In the old Youtube, you can game the view counter by playing over and over again. Now, you can't. It's easier to "cheat" by buying a song on Itunes, then AMazonMP3 then etc..... 200 streams = 1 download. If you buy 5 downloads of the same song, that's 1000 streams.

USA DATA ONLY 2010 TOP TEN SELLING DIGITAL ARTISTS Artist Units Sold 1 Eminem 15,673,000 2 Ke$ha 13,497,000 3 Lady Gaga 11,891,000 4 Katy Perry 11,837,000 5 Black Eyed Peas 11,337,000 6 Usher 10,717,000 7 Glee Cast 10,654,000 8 Rihanna 10,099,000 9 Taylor Swift 9,912,000 10. B.o.B. 9,118,000 2010 top-selling artists, in units sold (in millions) Taylor Swift 4.5 Eminem, 4.3 Lady Antebellum, 3.8 Justin Bieber, 3.7 Glee cast, 3.6 Susan Boyle, 2.7 Lady Gaga, 2.6 Michael Jackson, 2.1 Zac Brown Band, 1.8 The Beatles, 1.7 2011 TOP TEN SELLING ARTISTS (Based on Album sales from 1/3/2011-1/1/2012) 1 Adele 6,744,000 2 Justin Bieber 3,393,000 3 Michael Buble 2,985,000 4 Lady Gaga 2,828,000 5 Lil’ Wayne 2,651,000 6 Lady Antebellum 2,180,000 7 Glee Cast 2,104,000 8 Jason Aldean 1,884,000 9 Taylor Swift 1,847,000 10. Drake 1,591,000 2011 TOP TEN SELLING DIGITAL ARTISTS (Based on digital track sales from 1/3/2011 – 1/1/2012) 1 Katy Perry 15,187,000 2 Adele 14,247,000 3 Rihanna 13,918,000 4 Glee Cast 13,580,000 5 Lady Gaga 12,768,000 6 Lil Wayne 12,335,000 7 LMFAO 10,507,000 8 Bruno Mars 10,443,000 9 Eminem 9,264,000 10. Chris Brown 8,770,000 Only Gaga also appeared on all 4 categories of 2010 and 2011.

As for manipulation of streaming (by streaming over and over again) Spotify/VEVO software probably prevents this and put a cap of for example 10 a day of a song per user. 10 streams x $0.005 = $0.05 payment 1000 streams x $0.005 = $5 payment It's in THEIR BEST INTEREST to prevent manipulation. Why pay $5 for a manipulated song when you can pay $0.05? Especially, 99.9999% of users probably won't listen to THE SAME SONG more than 10 times a day.

200 streams = 1 ($1.29 Itunes) download in term of REVENUE Right now, subscription is about 15% and legal download is 85%. What will happen when subscription generate as much money as download? In Sweden right now, subscription is 84% and legal download is 16%. As for Sweden Chart, is it messed up every week? I'm looking at the Sweden Spotify Top 100 list right now, it doesn't look "messed up" at all. It is only MESSED UP when a major act releases an album and people stream this album. This mean many songs will chart in the SONGS CHART. but it's a SONG POPULARITY CHART. If a song is listened to a lot (on-demand), it just mean that the song is popularity for that particular week. Would anyone claiming it is unfair if Adele release her next album and a lot of her songs sold well and 8 of them made it to the top 20 of the Singles Chart?

Spotify pays on a PER STREAM BASIS. Same with Youtube/VEVO. It's in their interest that a song is only paid at most 10 times (a day) instead of 1000 times (manipulation of streaming over and over and over). Which mean they are smart enough to prevent "obsessed" fans from streaming a song over and over straight to the chart. The same way in that if a user purchase an Itunes song over and over, it will only count ONCE. 10 streams of "What Make You Beautiful" = 10 x $0.005 = $0.05 payment 1000 streams of "What Make You Beautiful" = 1000 x $0.005 = $5 payment ----------------due to fan manipulation Just a simple twitch in their software would do the trick. Also, not just fan manipulation. If you have a song on Spotify and it pays you $0.005 per stream. Put that song on all day and night, you could earn a lot of money. But Spotify software probably catch this and prevent it from happen. Any musicians in here who have songs on Spotify? And want to experiment by streaming your song over and over and over for 24 hours straight. And next month, see what it will say on your royalties statement.

Spotify pays about $0.005 per stream. Itunes pays about $0.90 per download ($1.29) So about 180 streams = 1 download.

And another "streaming" note: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/vev...DB0Q_video.html 2010 VEVO ad revenue: $50 mil actual 2011 VEVO ad revenue: $150 mil actual 2012 VEVO ad revenue (projection from VEV): $300 mil VEVO pays about 65% of its revenue with the record label/artists/publishers. Music Videos used to be a LOSS for the music industry. It was an expense and used as promotional material. The music industry practically gave MV away to MTV. Now, the music industry can make some serious money off of MV. lsZITZL3VbQ

2010 Actual: 8.2 million paid subscribers according to IFPI 2011 Actual: 13.4 million paid subscribers (65% increase) according to IFPI Let's assume that subscription will grow at the rate of 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% in the next 4 years 2012: 20.1 mil paid subscribers (at 50% growth) 2013: 28.14 mil paid subscribers (at 40% growth) 2014: 36.58 mil paid subscribers (at 30% growth) 2015: 43.90 mil paid subscribers (at 20% growth) Assume that each paying subscribers pay about $100 a year. 44 million x $100 = $4.4 billion USD. Of this 70% will be paid to the music label/artists/publishers.

Average Itunes downloader pay about $50 a year Average paying Spotify subscribers pay about $110 a year. Spotify pays 70% of its revenue to the music label/artists/publishers. Look at this stat: 5 million paying Spotify subscribers x $110 a year = $550 million in revenue. And Spotify is only a part of music subscription (with maybe a 20-25% market share). Spotify is about 12 months away from 5 million paying subscribers.

Subscription is coming...... Spotify added over 2 million paid subscribers in the last 12 months (more than 160,000 paid subscribers per month). January, 2010:------------ 250,000 paid subscribers March 17, 2010:----------- 320,000 July 20, 2010: ---------------- 500,000 December 8, 2010: ------ 750,000 March 8, 2011:--------------- 1,000,000 July 14, 2011: -----------------1,600,000 Sept 21, 2011: ---------------- 2,000,000 Nov 23, 2011: ------------------2,500,000 Jan 26, 2012: -------------------3,000,000 paid subscribers With more smartphone on the market (about 40% of all phones right now) will only fuel music subscription growth. 2010 Actual: 8.2 million paid subscribers according to IFPI 2011 Actual: 13.4 million paid subscribers (65% increase) according to IFPI Let's assume that subscription will grow at the rate of 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% in the next 4 years 2012: 20.1 mil paid subscribers (at 50% growth) 2013: 28.14 mil paid subscribers (at 40% growth) 2014: 36.58 mil paid subscribers (at 30% growth) 2015: 43.90 mil paid subscribers (at 20% growth)

What will happen to the UK Singles Chart when subscription music overtake legal music downloads? Which could happen within 5 years. http://www.ifpi.org/content/library/DMR201...and_figures.pdf http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainm...initiative.html Even the digital chief of Warner Music stated that subscription music will overtake legal music downloads in the near future. What will happen to the UK Singles Chart when subscription music overtake legal music downloads? 1 downloads = 1 point 100 stream = 1 point #1 = most points? p.s. How do they do it in Sweden where Itunes is 16% and Spotify is 84%? When Itunes announce a subscription service similar to Spotify, it will signal the "next" phase of music consumption. http://www.digitalmusicnews.com/research/30years.gif

http://www.vevo.com/artists#?order=MostViewedAllTime http://www.vevo.com/artist/justin-bieber 2,314,998,958 http://www.vevo.com/artist/rihanna 2,119,268,016 http://www.vevo.com/artist/lady-gaga 1,877,144,785 http://www.vevo.com/artist/eminem 1,731,207,637 http://www.vevo.com/artist/shakira 1,446,002,000 http://www.vevo.com/artist/beyonce 1,239,871,732 http://www.vevo.com/artist/black-eyed-peas 1,220,537,323 http://www.vevo.com/artist/britney-spears 1,115,071,658 http://www.vevo.com/artist/chris-brown 1,047,170,871 http://www.vevo.com/artist/katy-perry 1,026,991,247 http://www.vevo.com/artist/michael-jackson 883,810,164 http://www.vevo.com/artist/pitbull 855,214,166 http://www.vevo.com/artist/lmfao 853,264,810 http://www.vevo.com/artist/jennifer-lopez 850,556,397 http://www.vevo.com/artist/miley-cyrus 751,686,048 http://www.vevo.com/artist/enrique-iglesias 739,200,870 http://www.vevo.com/artist/avril-lavigne 704,154,248 http://www.vevo.com/artist/selena-gomez-and-the-scene 699,022,232 http://www.vevo.com/artist/taylor-swift 679,121,653 http://www.vevo.com/artist/lil-wayne 612,079,420 http://www.vevo.com/artist/50-cent 601,371,763 http://www.vevo.com/artist/kanye-west 574,063,640 http://www.vevo.com/artist/mariah-carey-1 546,537,814 http://www.vevo.com/artist/don-omar 518,947,843 http://www.vevo.com/artist/nicki-minaj 514,925,247 http://www.vevo.com/artist/usher 506,822,702 http://www.vevo.com/artist/akon 500,187,236 http://www.vevo.com/artist/adele 487,156,020 http://www.vevo.com/artist/pink 435,195,910 http://www.vevo.com/artist/jessie-j 403,484,279 http://www.vevo.com/artist/maroon-5 403,483,980 http://www.vevo.com/artist/ne-yo 391,971,824 http://www.vevo.com/artist/nelly 382,752,481 http://www.vevo.com/artist/the-pussycat-dolls 379,325,912 http://www.vevo.com/artist/david-guetta 377,010,160 http://www.vevo.com/artist/bon-jovi 373,801,496 http://www.vevo.com/artist/soulja-boy-tellem 366,535,364 http://www.vevo.com/artist/taio-cruz 365,307,520 http://www.vevo.com/artist/timbaland 357,753,742 http://www.vevo.com/artist/wisin-y-yandel 357,196,539

http://www.vevo.com/artists#?order=MostViewedAllTime http://www.vevo.com/artist/justin-bieber 2,314,998,958 http://www.vevo.com/artist/rihanna 2,119,268,016 http://www.vevo.com/artist/lady-gaga 1,877,144,785 http://www.vevo.com/artist/eminem 1,731,207,637 http://www.vevo.com/artist/shakira 1,446,002,000 http://www.vevo.com/artist/beyonce 1,239,871,732 http://www.vevo.com/artist/black-eyed-peas 1,220,537,323 http://www.vevo.com/artist/britney-spears 1,115,071,658 http://www.vevo.com/artist/chris-brown 1,047,170,871 http://www.vevo.com/artist/katy-perry 1,026,991,247 http://www.vevo.com/artist/michael-jackson 883,810,164 http://www.vevo.com/artist/pitbull 855,214,166 http://www.vevo.com/artist/lmfao 853,264,810 http://www.vevo.com/artist/jennifer-lopez 850,556,397 http://www.vevo.com/artist/miley-cyrus 751,686,048 http://www.vevo.com/artist/enrique-iglesias 739,200,870 http://www.vevo.com/artist/avril-lavigne 704,154,248 http://www.vevo.com/artist/selena-gomez-and-the-scene 699,022,232 http://www.vevo.com/artist/taylor-swift 679,121,653 http://www.vevo.com/artist/lil-wayne 612,079,420 http://www.vevo.com/artist/50-cent 601,371,763 http://www.vevo.com/artist/kanye-west 574,063,640 http://www.vevo.com/artist/mariah-carey-1 546,537,814 http://www.vevo.com/artist/don-omar 518,947,843 http://www.vevo.com/artist/nicki-minaj 514,925,247 http://www.vevo.com/artist/usher 506,822,702 http://www.vevo.com/artist/akon 500,187,236 http://www.vevo.com/artist/adele 487,156,020 http://www.vevo.com/artist/pink 435,195,910 http://www.vevo.com/artist/jessie-j 403,484,279 http://www.vevo.com/artist/maroon-5 403,483,980 http://www.vevo.com/artist/ne-yo 391,971,824 http://www.vevo.com/artist/nelly 382,752,481 http://www.vevo.com/artist/the-pussycat-dolls 379,325,912 http://www.vevo.com/artist/david-guetta 377,010,160 http://www.vevo.com/artist/bon-jovi 373,801,496 http://www.vevo.com/artist/soulja-boy-tellem 366,535,364 http://www.vevo.com/artist/taio-cruz 365,307,520 http://www.vevo.com/artist/timbaland 357,753,742 http://www.vevo.com/artist/wisin-y-yandel 357,196,539

The Wanted #12

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VEVO revenue: 2010: $50 mil 2011: $150 mil 2012: he projects $300 mil. And VEVO doesn't even have Warner Music Group artists. It will this week announce that it is streaming 3.7bn music videos a month. Doug Morris, the Sony Music chief executive who launched it two years ago while running Universal, told the Financial Times its revenues had risen from about $50m in 2010 to about $150m this year, and should hit $300m in 2012.