Ryan.

oWPnU_wRj04 Performed during the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games and released straight afterwards, lovely anthem for the event!

I've changed my mind to Israel, but if there's to be a surprise then I'm leaning towards France having the most potential to create a story and a moment.

Indeed, Israel is more of a default jury winner in that there's no song that screams I will landslide the jury a la Dami, Salvador whereas I could easily pick out a stand-out in Estonia than the televoters will grasp on to.

Amazing 01. Cyprus // Eleni Foureira - Fuego 02. Israel // Netta - TOY 03. Australia // Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love 04. Azerbaijan // Aisel - X My Heart 05. Finland // Saara Aalto - Monsters 06. Czech Republic // Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me 07. Lithuania // Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old 08. F.Y.R. Macedonia // Eye Cue - Lost And Found 09. Poland // Gromee feat. Lukas Meijer - Light Me Up 10. Sweden // Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off 11. Germany // Michael Schulte - You Let Me Walk Alone 12. France // Madame Monsieur - Mercy 13. Ukraine // MELOVIN - Under The Ladder 14. Ireland // Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together 15. The Netherlands // Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em Great 16. Albania // Eugent Bushpepa - Mall 17. Bulgaria // EQUINOX - Bones 18. Belgium // Sennek - A Matter Of Time 19. Malta // Christabelle - Taboo 20. Norway // Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song 21. Portugal // Cláudia Pascoal - O Jardim 22. Greece // Yianna Terzi - Oneiro Mou 23. Switzerland // Zibbz - Stones 24. Austria // Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You 25. Spain // Alfred & Amaia - Tu Canción 26. Estonia // Elina Nechayeva - La Forza Good 27. Denmark // Rasmussen - Higher Ground 28. Serbia // Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - Nova Deca 29. Moldova // DoReDos - My Lucky Day 30. Latvia // Laura Rizzotto - Funny Girl 31. Croatia // Franka - Crazy 32. Slovenia // Lea Sirk - Hvala, ne! 33. Romania // The Humans - Goodbye 34. Italy // Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro - Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente Average 35. Belarus // ALEKSEEV - Forever 36. United Kingdom // SuRie - Storm 37. Iceland // Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice 38. Armenia // Sevak Khanagyan - Qami 39. Hungary // AWS - Viszlát Nyár Poor 40. San Marino // Jessika feat. Jenifer Brening - Who We Are 41. Russia // Julia Samoylova - I Won't Break 42. Montenegro // Vanja Radovanović - Inje 43. Georgia // Iriao - For You

Right here we go! While I've mostly stuck to the formula, Lex is right that dominating one vote or the other will gain more points than middling in both so I've reflected that in my overall positions. Semi Final 1 Overall - Televote - Jury Vote 01 02 01 Israel // Netta - Toy 02 01 05 Estonia // Elina Nechayeva - La Forza 03 03 04 Czech Republic // Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me 04 04 08 Cyprus // Eleni Foureira - Fuego 05 07 06 Lithuania // Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old 06 13 03 Bulgaria // Equinox - Bones 07 16 02 Belgium // Sennek - A Matter Of Time 08 05 13 Greece // Yianna Terzi - Oneiro Mou 09 06 15 Finland // Saara Aalto - Monsters 10 11 09 Ireland // Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together 11 12 07 Albania // Eugent Bushpepa - Mall 12 09 12 Armenia // Sevak Khanagyan - Qami 13 10 14 Azerbaijan // Aisel - X My Heart 14 08 18 Belarus // Alekseev - Forever 15 17 10 Switzerland // Zibbz - Stones 16 18 11 Austria // Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You 17 14 17 Croatia // Franka - Crazy 18 15 16 F.Y.R. Macedonia // Eye Cue - Lost And Found 19 19 19 Iceland // Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice Semi Final 2 Overall - Televote - Jury Vote 01 04 01 Australia // Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love 02 03 02 Sweden // Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off 03 02 04 Norway // Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song 04 01 06 Ukraine // Mélovin - Under The Ladder 05 05 03 The Netherlands // Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em 06 07 07 Poland // Gromee ft. Lukas Meijer - Light Me Up 07 06 09 Moldova // DoReDos - My Lucky Day 08 08 08 Denmark // Rasmussen - Higher Ground 09 14 05 Malta // Christabelle - Taboo 10 10 11 Montenegro // Vanja Radovanović - Inje 11 09 14 Russia // Julia Samoylova - I Won't Break 12 16 10 Latvia // Laura Rizzotto - Funny Girl 13 11 16 Hungary // AWS - Viszlát nyár 14 13 13 Slovenia // Lea Sirk - Hvala, ne! 15 12 15 Serbia // Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - Nova deca 16 15 12 Romania // The Humans - Goodbye 17 17 18 San Marino // Jessika ft. Jenifer Brening - Who We Are 18 18 17 Georgia // Ethno-Jazz Band Iriao - For You And just for fun... Final Overall - Televote - Jury Vote 01 02 01 Israel // Netta - Toy 02 01 07 Estonia // Elina Nechayeva - La Forza 03 07 02 Australia // Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love 04 06 03 Sweden // Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off 05 08 04 France // Madame Monsieur - Mercy 06 03 10 Norway // Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song 07 05 09 Czech Republic // Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me 08 04 11 Ukraine // Mélovin - Under The Ladder 09 13 06 The Netherlands // Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em 10 21 05 Belgium // Sennek - A Matter Of Time 11 18 08 Bulgaria // Equinox - Bones 12 09 19 Poland // Gromee ft. Lukas Meijer - Light Me Up 13 10 21 Moldova // DoReDos - My Lucky Day 14 11 20 Finland // Saara Aalto - Monsters 15 14 16 Lithuania // Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old 16 16 14 Germany // Michael Schulte - You Let Me Walk Alone 17 15 17 Cyprus // Eleni Foureira - Fuego 18 12 23 Montenegro // Vanja Radovanović - Inje 19 19 15 Italy // Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro - Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente 20 24 12 Malta // Christabelle - Taboo 21 23 13 Portugal // Cláudia Pascoal - O Jardim 22 17 18 Greece // Yianna Terzi - Oneiro Mou 23 20 22 Denmark // Rasmussen - Higher Ground 24 22 25 Spain // Alfred & Amaia - Tu Canción 25 25 24 Ireland // Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together 26 26 26 United Kingdom // SuRie - Storm

My gut says Australia at this point, a non-polarising song, reliable performer and likely good staging going by Australia's past efforts.

Very curious to see if this will get a physical UK release or not...

Buzzjack getting that promo! https://www.escxtra.com/2018/03/25/eleven-y...urovision-odds/ But it is interesting how all of last year's top 5 favourites were in the eventual top 6. I can't see them being anywhere near as accurate this year despite how amazing that would be!

Glad I didn’t disappoint you all!

Only thanks to the wonder that is Eurovision could a song containing chicken sounds made by a vocal looper artist in Israel reach a Uganda street dance crew who perform an AMAZING dance routine to it: https://www.escxtra.com/2018/03/18/uganda-spoon-youth-toy/ Eurovision is so wonderful :heart:

Albania 2018: Eugent Bushpepa - Mall Armenia 2017: Artsvik - Fly With Me Australia 2018: Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love Austria 2017: Nathan Trent - Running On Air Azerbaijan 2018: Aisel - X My Heart Belarus 2017: NAVIBAND - Story Of My Life Belgium 2017: Blanche - City Lights Bulgaria 2017: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess Croatia 2018: Franka - Crazy Cyprus 2018: Eleni Foureira - Fuego Czech Republic 2018: Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me Denmark 2017: Anja - Where I Am Estonia 2017: Koit Toome & Laura - Verona Finland 2018: Saara Aalto - Monsters France 2017: Alma - Requiem Georgia 2017: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith Germany 2018: Michael Schulte - You Let Me Walk Alone Greece 2017: Demy - This Is Love Hungary 2017: Joci Pápai - Origo Iceland 2017: Svala - Paper Ireland 2018: Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together Israel 2018: Netta - TOY Italy 2017: Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma Latvia 2017: Triana Park - Line Lithuania 2018: Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old Macedonia 2017: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone Malta 2018: Christabelle - Taboo Moldova 2017: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma Montenegro 2017: Slavko Kalezić - Space Netherlands 2018: Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em Norway 2018: Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song Poland 2018: Gromee ft. Lukas Meijer - Light Me Up Portugal 2018: Cláudia Pascoal - O Jardim Romania 2017: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It! Russia 2018: Julia Samoylova - I Won't Break San Marino 2018: Jessika ft. Jenifer Brening - Who We Are Serbia 2017: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep Slovenia 2018: Lea Sirk - Hvala, Ne! Spain 2018: Amaia y Alfred - Tu Canción Sweden 2018: Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off Switzerland 2017: Timebelle - Apollo Ukraine 2018: MELOVIN - Under The Ladder United Kingdom 2017: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You Total 2017: 21 2018: 22

First full ranking is here! Amazing 01. Cyprus // Eleni Foureira - Fuego 02. Israel // Netta - TOY 03. Australia // Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love 04. Azerbaijan // Aisel - X My Heart 05. Czech Republic // Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me 06. Finland // Saara Aalto - Monsters 07. Poland // Gromee feat. Lukas Meijer - Light Me Up 08. Lithuania // Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old 09. F.Y.R. Macedonia // Eye Cue - Lost And Found 10. Germany // Michael Schulte - You Let Me Walk Alone 11. Sweden // Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off 12. Ukraine // MELOVIN - Under The Ladder 13. The Netherlands // Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em 14. Ireland // Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together 15. Belgium // Sennek - A Matter Of Time Great 16. France // Madame Monsieur - Mercy 17. Norway // Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song 18. Bulgaria // EQUINOX - Bones 19. Malta // Christabelle - Taboo 20. Switzerland // Zibbz - Stones 21. Portugal // Cláudia Pascoal - O Jardim 22. Estonia // Elina Nechayeva - La Forza 23. Austria // Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You 24. Spain // Alfred & Amaia - Tu Canción 25. Latvia // Laura Rizzotto - Funny Girl Good 26. Serbia // Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - Nova Deca 27. Greece // Yianna Terzi - Oneiro Mou 28. Albania // Eugent Bushpepa - Mall 29. Slovenia // Lea Sirk - Hvala, ne! 30. Croatia // Franka - Crazy 31. Moldova // DoReDos - My Lucky Day 32. Denmark // Rasmussen - Higher Ground 33. Romania // The Humans - Goodbye 34. Belarus // ALEKSEEV - Forever Average 35. United Kingdom // SuRie - Storm 36. Iceland // Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice 37. Italy // Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro - Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente 38. Armenia // Sevak Khanagyan - Qami 39. Hungary // AWS - Viszlát Nyár Poor 40. San Marino // Jessika feat. Jenifer Brening - Who We Are 41. Russia // Julia Samoylova - I Won't Break 42. Montenegro // Vanja Radovanović - Inje 43. Georgia // Iriao - For You

231. Netta - Toy This was trending top 10 on YouTube too yesterday, I guess it was due for release tomorrow but rush released last night instead. Also top 5 in Spain, top 60 in Netherlands in terms of countries with somewhat meaningful iTunes Charts. CziHrYYSyPc

Something like this might be nice and somewhat realistic: Semi Final 1 01 Azerbaijan Aisel - X My Heart 02 Iceland Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice 03 Belarus ALEKSEEV - Forever 04 Bulgaria Equinox - Bones 05 Israel Netta Barzilai - Toy 06 Lithuania Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old 07 Albania Eugent Bushpepa - Mall 08 Belgium Sennek - A Matter Of Time 09 Czech Republic Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me 10 Estonia Elina Nechayeva - La Forza 11 Austria Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You 12 Switzerland Zibbz - Stones 13 Armenia Sevak Khanagyan - Qami 14 Finland Saara Aalto - Monsters 15 Greece Yianna Terzi - Oneiro Mou 16 Ireland Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together 17 Macedonia Eye Cue - Lost & Found 18 Croatia Franka - Crazy 19 Cyprus Eleni Foureira - Fuego Semi Final 2 01 Norway Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song 02 Romania The Humans - Goodbye 03 Russia Julia Samoylova - I Won't Break 04 Moldova DoReDoS - My Lucky Day 05 San Marino Jessika ft. Jenifer Brening - Who We Are 06 The Netherlands Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em 07 Serbia Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - Nova deca 08 Denmark Rasmussen - Higher Ground 09 Australia Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love 10 Montenegro Vanja Radovanović - Inje 11 Ukraine Mélovin - Under The Ladder 12 Latvia Laura Rizzotto - Funny Girl 13 Georgia Iriao - Sheni gulistvis 14 Malta Christabelle - Taboo 15 Hungary AWS - Viszlát nyár 16 Sweden Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off 17 Slovenia Lea Sirk - Hvala, ne! 18 Poland Gromee ft. Lukas Meijer - Light Me Up

Surely semi-final one is the highest quality semi-final ever, it's impossible to rank them.

These are VERY provisional as I'm aware I have an impossible 7:3 half split in semi 1 but I'm too tired now so will revisit these tomorrow and make a final version of this initial prediction. Semi Final 1 Overall - Televote - Jury Vote 01 01 05 Estonia // Elina Nechayeva - La Forza 02 06 01 Bulgaria // Equinox - Bones 03 03 04 Czech Republic // Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me 04 02 06 Israel // Netta - Toy 05 04 11 Cyprus // Eleni Foureira - Fuego 06 05 10 Armenia // Sevak Khanagyan - Qami 07 14 02 Belgium // Sennek - A Matter Of Time 08 09 07 Lithuania // Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old 09 07 12 Finland // Saara Aalto - Monsters 10 11 08 Albania // Eugent Bushpepa - Mall 11 10 09 Azerbaijan // Aisel - X My Heart 12 17 03 Austria // Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You 13 08 15 Greece // Yianna Terzi - Oneiro Mou 14 12 14 Belarus // Alekseev - Forever 15 16 13 Switzerland // Zibbz - Stones 16 15 16 Ireland // Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together 17 13 19 Croatia // Franka - Crazy 18 18 17 F.Y.R. Macedonia // Eye Cue - Lost And Found 19 19 18 Iceland // Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice Semi Final 2 Overall - Televote - Jury Vote 01 02 01 Sweden // Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off 02 03 02 Australia // Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love 03 01 05 Ukraine // Mélovin - Under The Ladder 04 06 03 The Netherlands // Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em 05 04 07 Norway // Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song 06 05 08 Poland // Gromee ft. Lukas Meijer - Light Me Up 07 12 04 Malta // Christabelle - Taboo 08 07 10 Moldova // DoReDos - My Lucky Day 09 13 06 Latvia // Laura Rizzotto - Funny Girl 10 08 13 Russia // Julia Samoylova - I Won't Break 11 11 09 Denmark // Rasmussen - Higher Ground 12 09 12 Serbia // Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - Nova deca 13 10 11 Montenegro // Vanja Radovanović - Inje 14 14 14 Romania // The Humans - Goodbye 15 16 15 San Marino // Jessika ft. Jenifer Brening - Who We Are 16 15 17 Georgia // Iriao - Sheni gulistvis 17 18 16 Slovenia // Lea Sirk - Hvala, ne! 18 17 18 Hungary // AWS - Viszlát nyár

As isn't tradition, I bring you the predictions thread with this paragraph copied from last year with the required edits. I can't wait any longer just for Georgia to serve up something that is coming last anyway. • Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think the UK will come last’ to full predictions of everyone’s positions with points and justifications essays. • You will make some predictions that turn out to be wrong, that's the name of the game. The challenge will be to see if you can end up with comparatively less egg on your face than everyone else, just make sure you've thought through your bold assertions before you make them. • New information comes to light all the time between now and the live show so you can revise your predictions as often as you like (within reason though, obviously). • If you're Ryan and you say something completely correct despite Lex saying such a prediction is laughable like "Salvador will win the semi 1 televote" as early as April 4th 2017 then prepare to brag about this forevermore. BuzzJack, start predicting NOW!

A reminder that Ieva offered us this last year cz0bwm0TV-E

One of my big faves finally wins a national final, thank you LITHUANIA!

This is SO interesting and her vocal tone is amazing, really impressed with this one and it's a shame it is stuck in semi 1!

In the summer of 2014 (less than 4 years ago), today's current top 5 in the odds had a Eurovision record as follows: 1. Israel Had failed to qualify for the past four years in a row 2. Bulgaria Did not participate in 2014 after withdrawing following 6 consecutive non-qualifications 3. Czech Republic Had not participated since 2009 following three non-qualifications out of a possible three 4. Estonia Decent record in context, finally recovering after 6 non-qualifications out of 7 between 2003 and 2010 but still only 2 top 10 finishes since Sahlene in 2002 5. Australia Not eligible to take part in Eurovision ANY COUNTRY CAN GET HYPE WITH THE RIGHT SONG

apparently it is tropical pop-rock that is very professionally produced "for Macedonian standards"

https://twitter.com/dimakaterusha/status/972830267965689856

This has leaked (give it a Twitter search, I’ll try and find a link I can post), much much better than Flame Is Burning - quite modern tropical-lite ballad! It should be good enough to squeeze through in semi 2.

#Eurovision #Russia @jsvok to perform I Won't Break by Leonid Gutkin, Netta Nemrodi and Arie Burshtein (same team as Flame Is Burning). At Far East broadcast only news report was aired - full song coming tonight at appr 20:20 CET.