Iz 🌟

So far it seems like Harris is consistently outperforming Biden 2020 in... most counties by a few points and particularly those near any sort of city. Some rural counties that are in are shifting red but not that many of them. This seems to be more true further north, I think Florida is lost and Georgia is... iffy at the moment.

I was meming a little but Hamilton County, Indiana has come in with Democrats narrowly leading (though only with 66% reporting), and that's a suburban county of Indianapolis that has pretty much always voted Republican (but has been trending towards being competitive the last few elections).

seen enough, these early results from Indiana are enough to declare a Kamala blowout. Philadelphia turnout looking very good too, in more serious coverage.

what's your coverage of choice? I'm probably going to be bouncing between BBC (as much as it's my default I feel wary about trusting them for decent US election coverage), CNN, NBC and my favourite political livestreamer.

OH MY GOD YES What a winner, well done Chez! *.* great result for GY!BE too, I'm very happy with a top half finish that was relatively close to top 10 all things considered.

I can't watch nor can I call leww

Aye, if we're taking cues from the Selzer poll, which would indicate strong performances for Dems across the midwest, the counterweight would be Republican strength on the border states - which fits with the election narratives, strength for Dems in less religious states more concerned on abortion, strength for Republicans in states directly experiencing immigration.

thank you Bré for the 18 and your hyping of GY!BE throughout the contest, much appreciated that is so close up top eesh

I reckon Hendinia might have this now but I do hope Screamland can hold on.

it's joever we're so back it's joever we're so back omg Sovarasma!!!

BOOM thank you Cumulonimbia and Neliönoir, what a great pair of votes *.*

Chez! though 'So Far Away' leading right now is incredible too :wub:

excited! I can agree with a few of the contenders put forward but it doesn't feel like there's a hugely strong case for one over the other, hope the indie bloc have turned out xx

That's my final thoughts - had 2020 minus Arizona rattling around in my brain for a few days now. Colours show margins. (if anyone doesn't know how to generate maps, you can use 270toWin or YAPMS, or just post your numbers)

Okay, by popular demand, here it is. Remember the UK is 5 hours ahead of Eastern Time US at the moment, so all times you may see online, you should add on 5-8 hours to them. I'll be using GMT from now on in this post. First polls close from 11pm in the UK, 6pm in the US, that'll be Indiana and Kentucky, both solid Trump states, but we shouldn't see any full results until gone midnight. I expect we'll see a good picture of how it's going late in the night, but states like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona are likely to take a long time to count their votes and if any of the other swing states are on a razor's edge it'll take a day or two for them to be called too. Let's start this off with final Electoral College predictions, go.

In 2022 Republicans had over 50% on this same metric. Independents are being automatically registered in Nevada which I've said before and indicates that they're likely to be heavily Dem.

If we're going to be posting the early Florida signs we should also be posting this, I'm not letting bad faith Trump supporters get away with anything on my watch. @1853823893846229077 Nevada looking good ladies and gentlemen.

fantastic idea - after letting the first few editions of this pass me by I'm trying to go through all the playlists you've done so far at some point or other, really complete collections so far. for me: Nightwish - Amaranth

The important thing about abortion is that the more states that are wrestled away from being red states, the more one can do - and the promise made by the Harris campaign is to restore abortion rights federally so it actually is pretty damn important. Fundamentally most voters do not care about foreign policy and that's far more true in the US than it is in the UK, there's not the demographics for it, and it's all further away. Even if you're someone clinging to 'Genocide Joe and Holocaust Harris', a somewhat understandable position especially for Biden, whose natural sympathies to Israel have botched the US response, the median voter is so far away from thinking that way or having it matter to their vote. They're actually far more likely to vote to punish anti-democratic decisions, something that's been constantly seen in western democracies. (that said, economy tends to trump all but the candidates have moved to be more even on this with Trump slightly ahead, rather than the big lead he had when Biden dropped out)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War (bonus: the Americans and the presidential candidate were even actually responsible for that one)

That would be the same Robert Jenrick who made leaving the ECHR one of his central leadership pledges, right? Wonder if she's noticed that the batshit insane right really are just that batshit insane and aren't just pretending to gain power (like her) yet.

We didn't last time but I'm not against it if there's enough interest - of course it's likely to not be over after one night and indeed last time's thread lasted us all the way through to inauguration due to Jan 6th.

If you replace Kamala with Trump in that post it'd make a lot more sense and be a lot more redeemable. On Trump's side if he wins: Pulling funding from Ukraine, helping Russia in their unjust war Upholding abortion bans and seeking to roll them out, causing suffering for women across the USA Related to the above, promotion of 'family values' aka. violence against women within patriarchal marriages, as shown by Trump's personal conduct and treatment of women Attempted deportations of millions within the US Fascist rhetoric and implications on subverting democracy. Yet MORE funding to Israel and Netanyahu's preferred choice. On Kamala's side if she wins: Probable continuation of the status quo of the US's rogue ally (the one who is actually culpable) committing war crimes while the Democrats try to disentangle themselves (note that Kamala's statements, as VP and therefore of limited decision-making authority in the Biden administration, have pretty much been as pro-Palestine as an establishment US politician will be allowed to be). Additional point on that horrific post, describing Israel's horrific actions as 'the worst evil known to man' is language that I would judge to be anti-semitic. Israel's evils are equivalent to dictators in Russia, Syria, Iran, or just a rather belligerent warlord - describing it in that fashion implies something a bit beyond that.

I am cool so I arranged some remaining holiday days to coincide with this, will probably do what I did for the General Election which was stay awake as long as possible, then fall asleep at 5am once the direction of travel is pretty much known (we hope!!). I am definitely up for overanalyzing counties in Indiana in the middle of the night, this is the sort of stuff I live for. Really buying into the idea that older midwestern women are absolutely turning out in droves for Harris because of Dodds/abortion, that would be glorious.

I am stoked about the Iowa poll - all hail Selzer - she also saw the red shifts in 2016 and 2020 that no one else saw coming. It confirms a lot of my priors that we are in a much more favourable Democratic environment than the polls are showing - that's how the campaigns and apparent reaction to them are behaving. Hopefully it's somewhere in the region of the reality and all the other polls are herding bitches.