Iz 🌟

I voted for BABYMETAL (of course), it's huge and fun metal, but there are good tracks from Lorde and Wet Leg here too, not surprised at the split nature.

See this is the thing, Lithuania has never been particularly good at the 'uplifting pop'. I mean, 'Stay' is alright, 'This Time' was okay but far outclassed by the other duet songs from 2015. It's all very basic musically though and I would class pretty much all of the rest of their entries before the late 2010s into this, either boring or don't hit their niche as well as they should. But they're doing excellently with the moody indie and refined retro aesthetics they've swerved into lately.

MAMA ŠČ! Possibly forgotten a bit too quickly after Croatia followed it up perfectly but what an entry. Excellent countdown, enjoyed reading it.

I was amused by opening this thread and seeing that I would probably rank the bottom 6 here as my top 6 Lithuanian entries in a slightly different order. one of the worst countries prior to 2017 and somehow one of the best countries of the 2020s.

Would be really interesting to hear from people why they choose where they identify themselves. In a self-justification sense, I think this is somewhat personal even if it does tend to define how you approach political issues so I wouldn't judge anyone for how they arrived at the point they choose. Left-wing for myself, with a dislike of any hierarchies built in by the system or by aspiring leaders and a vision of politics as a way to enact egalitarian policies to fix systematic injustices and ensure everyone has a meaningful and free life. I don't think there's any major issues where I see the right-wing answer as the correct one, their solutions tend to be too punitive even on issues (like the importance of personal responsibility) where I agree on the problem.

The Dutch government collapsed lol. Geert Wilders heeft een serieus probleem. Also the South Korean election (after the debacle of martial law removed Yoon Suk Yeol eventually) has put a centre-left Democrat, Lee Jae-Myung, the runner-up in the 2022 election to power. Interesting things about him: he was nearly assassinated last year, he has a criminal record (a prerequisite for being a SK politician!), he was filmed climbing the fence during the martial law crisis and he's coming to power on a campaign to reform the system so there can't be power grabs again.

Aija deserved top 10 in the real contest, so good to see it in achieve equivalence in this countdown. When the Baltic indie hits, it hits good.

Mod voice: Gonna remind everyone here of rule 2 of the Politics forum as we're getting close to that, I would suggest this discussion stop for now. You can attack a poster's ideas, but not them. I know that is a fine line to thread, but try. Also, while we're here, I'll invoke Rule 3, try and keep discussions vaguely on topic - if your entire post subject has nothing to do with the title of the thread, consider what you can do to swerve it back to discussing that.

Yeah we've really stepped up a gear since Sam Ryder even if Dizzy and I Wrote A Song aren't the best examples of that. That seems contradictory but it does feel like a change in our attitude to the contest, they're more professional modern, aiming higher entries (than say, Even If, for example), just each had very specific, notable reasons why they didn't do as well as we'd want them to. respect for putting the hopeless funky Even If above both of them. Just because it's funny.

wow I was really not sure if I'd qualify after the poor predictions, thanks for seeing me through! got 5/6 of my DNQ predix right though, just Macromia surprising me which I'll take. Sad to lose Luna Shadows from the other semi, thought it sounded very nice, Quelza also sounded like a highlight and Dobago and Pestolia were fairly close to my votes so sad to see them out, though all of my top 10 made it through.

Saw them at the O2 last night (was incredible and life-changing obviously), 'Song 3' was a huge highlight from the new tracks, very good crowd-chanty song. Plus it's an opportunity (and I think this is the intention) for all 3 members to have centre stage rather than it just being Su all the time, they all have equal parts on that song which is unusual.

I'm sure it would have been noted at the time but Nuggets or Club Bizarre seem like the most likely, if it has ever happened there, I'm not sure I recall any song achieving it though.

I sort of want to believe that this is possible, that there could exist, potentially of any genre, a song good enough that it would cause even people not normally into that genre to give it points and therefore achieve this, but while this certainly happens to a lesser extent with some of the big hitters, you're still going to always just on balance of probability have some people not voting for it because it didn't cross over for them, even if it crossed over for some. Potentially also a spoiler effect in place that with any song potentially popular enough to achieve this, the signs of discussion in the contest will be so hyped that for a 'least likely fan' who might in a vacuum rank this song 15th place, they would see enough overhype relative to how they would rank it that it could well be pushed out of their votes.

Bigger Than Us would be my last place. Sent at a time when we should have been fatigued from that kind of soppy winners ballad, X Factor was passé half a decade before it. There is just nothing appealing about it, it seems like the perfect reason why the UK public hasn't had a hand in choosing our entry since. I wouldn't even compare it to Storm, that at least has a couple of mildly interesting things going on with the backing track. and then James Fox isn't great but bringing a guitar on stage isn't a bad thing.

I do sorta wonder how this will be implemented. There have been news reports that say they won't always release it, which I can't see sticking should another terrible incident happen where the perpetrator is from a minority group, it just allows the bad actors to draw conclusions that they now have evidence for AND claim that the powers that be will hide such. Then releasing it in the manner they did, again, should the perpetrator be from a minority group would also embolden the worst impulses of people. I suppose a certain level of transparency is good, but we also need greater statistical understanding and empathy from people who are not likely in the future to have it.

This somewhat makes sense. Idiot who can't safely drive a metal box, for one reason or another, (I can't recall if the official reason, not just speculation, is out there) not fit to drive a vehicle, in the worst possible place to be. Consistent with no signs of terrorism. Will get the book thrown at him, not undeservedly.

at the risk of igniting another argument about tariffs The International Trade Court have ruled that Trump cannot legally implement tariffs in the way he has done so far. The Trump administration are taking this to the Supreme Court. Interesting developments certainly, I'm not sure how things will play out here. Also Musk has left the administration, possibly not finding everything Trump's doing to his liking. also also amusingly some reporters have been calling his policy/tariff-time-of-the-month TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), risking double-dog daring him to crash the economy for a funny name.

oh come now there are MUCH worse than Storm still left in the running. Merely being pleasantly okay gets you way more than halfway up our list.

Gate 01 - Kylienips - Marva Von Theo - The woman I left behind Gate 02 - POPHub - YEJI - Air Gate 03 - Lookylion - Beks - Melodrama Gate 04 - Zanmatony - Solarstone - Seven Cities (Solar Stone's Atlantis Mix) Gate 05 - Taahino - Sophie Powers - move with me Gate 06 - Sandénia - Daniel Seavey - Sleeping With The Lights On Gate 07 - Persephonia - Kikagaku Moyo - Cardboard Pile Gate 08 - Why So Sirius - M¥SS KETA - SINNER Gate 09 - Hushkanukia - Sorana - DON'T SEND ME FLOWERS Gate 10 - Ojnoj - Kylie Cantrall - Denim Gate 11 - Kluminican Republic - HoneyLuv - Dancehall Gate 12 - Summericia - Openside - I Feel Nothing Gate 13 - Trifoski - Kumo 99 - Dopamine Chaser Gate 14 - Hendinia - CATTY - Joyride Gate 15 - A-Konohagakure - Nora En Pure - Memories Gate 16 - Scotland 2 - caroline - Total euphoria Gate 17 - FSR Rontvia - She Past Away - İnziva Gate 18 - Greenfroze - Yōko Oginome - Dancing Hero (Eat You Up) (Dear Pop Singer Version) Gate 19 - Macromia - Nao Toyama - Tomoshibi No Manimani Gate 20 - Bronzil - Cult Of Venus - Algorithm Gate 21 - The Spodic Empire - Zeigeist - Tar Heart Gate 22 - Pestolia - The Limiñanas - Calentita (feat. Nuria) Gate 23 - Skall - Avalon Emerson - Don't Be Seen With Me Gate 24 - Séyetana - Hot Milk - Insubordinate Ingerland Gate 25 - Kathaldazia - TDJ & Clara Kimera - On And On (You Lie) Gate 26 - Dobago - Âme & Curses - Shadow Of Love borderline: Dobago, Scotland 2, Zanmatony, Greenfroze, Séyetana possibly?

Yes, they make sense to me because I've read the data tables in detail and you haven't. All the answers to your questions about that 'best PM' poll are in here: https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_BestPM_250519_002.pdf But anyway, these are 2024 Conservative voters, not those who are currently listing them as voting intention, so you're not comparing like with like. 60% of current Conservative voters, plus some from left-leaning parties, are what is contributing to Badenoch winning that H2H with Farage, it's not a poll of solely the right. It's relevant because in any FPTP election, votes can get squeezed and it's useful to see where those squeezes might go, if they're DKs, they might be undecided or just can't be squeezed away from their chosen party, which is fine, that's also useful info. Farage doesn't pick up much outside the Reform believers though, and incidentally his matchup with Starmer has the lowest percentage of DKs among all the matchups, people have largely made up their mind on that one. At the moment of course, things could all still change. And then if you're going to combine Conservative and Reform on that latest poll, you might as well combine Labour, Lib Dem and Greens which adds up to 47%. I wouldn't, but you can easily see how a centrist leader comes out ahead in a 2-way race even when well behind a far-right leader when all parties are included. See the recent Romanian election for an example of how those sorts of numbers worked. Which, a Macron-esque strategy, grab votes from the far-left to the centre-right, even if both those immediate groups hate him, they hate him less than Reform, might be how Starmer wins another term. also no, YouGov does not poll the same people all the time, come on. Read their methodology, they have millions of participants and each poll is a different nationally representative sample.

Seems like a minor miracle that no one has died and all the injured appear to be stable. The policing response to this has been great too, quickly shutting down misinformation and clearly being aware of the possibility of shit-stirrers and misinformation spreaders ready to go with their "theories" about who caused it, though incredibly alarming of course that without immediate information about all incidents of public interest some parts of our society are ready and willing to lynch brown people/black people/Muslim/asylum seekers (delete as appropriate) because of false perceptions of reality.

i voted, there are some very cool songs in this semi ^_^

Not necessarily, but there's a good chance voters like those exist in what will be Labour-Reform battlegrounds at the next general election, a type of election where we know voters, particularly less engaged voters who vote in generals but not locals, consider this question quite strongly. Obviously the other matchups won't matter in as many places but they are also useful baselines for seats that are a different kind of 2-way marginal. All dependent on individual party strength per seat of course but this is where elections are won and lost. This is a valid part of the polling picture, it matters on balance as much as other single pieces, in its own context. Maybe it doesn't matter and people won't vote against Reform strongly enough to keep them from having a majority, but anti-votes and choosing vote effectiveness are so often a key part of elections especially FPTP ones; I find it silly to be so dismissive of what this tells us that favourability polls and voting intention do not, what voters might do when making more tactical choices relevant to the system they find themselves in.

? They're not completely at odds at all. This poll easily sits with the rest of the polling picture we currently have. Reform currently have the most numbers of voters in opinion polls, but most people prefer another party. This poll tells us that they would take Labour over Reform. Starmer is unfavourably viewed, but a decent enough proportion of those unfavourables do not think that any of the other options would be better. It reads more to me that you want to dismiss it (dismissing polls is generally a losing game, something I learned from the 2019 election) because it doesn't fit your narrative than that you genuinely can't see how it can fit or are genuinely entertaining the suggestion that people in a representative sample are en masse lying to pollsters. Regardless of what you, personally, think (I myself would put DK between Starmer and Davey but would vote for anyone over Farage, to give a pointless personal counter to your personal anecdote), Labour still have a vote share that is relatively substantial, and enough of the rest would choose their leader to be PM over the far more polarising Reform leader. Easy.

I mean actually, this poll is sorta showing there's a ceiling on how much of the 2024 Conservative vote, still a very right-wing subset, can go to Farage. Which is crucial for Reform's chances at a majority. Why would that make it not relevant? I already went over the virtues of the metric in great detail literally the last time it was run so I won't repeat myself, but given that yes, the (current) Conservative voter breakdown on this poll is 28-Starmer-39-Farage-32-DK, and the current LDem breakdown is 81-Starmer-6-Farage-13-DK, why would that scenario not play out in hundreds of Labour defenses in a general election? 2010-2015, Labour always led Conservatives in the polls, but Miliband never beat Cameron on this question. It's also a good way of showing another side to approval ratings, I'm sure you view approval ratings and or VI as important, but approval ratings don't show polarisation of a figure, the strength of feeling, where it's almost certain that opinions on Farage are more polarised than they are of Starmer. Also not that it's relevant to this poll's usefulness in any way but lol at decrying left wing people as biased when 87% of Reform 2024 voters still choose Farage.