Umi

Let's go Portugal and Serbia/Hungary.

Who's everyone voting for tomorrow then? Unless something surprising happens I'll be throwing a vote at Belgium and Portugal.

19 please?

I like it actually. It's shockingly interesting for an Irish stage.

I can understand not liking it but it's clearly got a hook. It won the final for a reason at the end of the day.

I don't suppose you could find the RTBF statement for me? I heard what you said about the performance was mistranslated but I've struggled to find the source material.

The 08-10 run was really something. I liked 'Sweet People' a lot for being a little bit demented and nothing needs to be said about 08 and 09. I don't think I can think of a song that feels more robbed in the 21st century than 'Shady Lady' aside from perhaps '7th Wonder'. It's a very special song. 'Angel' was admittedly dire but Ukraine can never go toooooo long without throwing out a mess. Really interesting trivia about the selections, Adam! I am happy to have learned something new today.

How much does this hurt countries like Belarus in the semi?

I'm OK with this.

I do agree that novelty songs are important to Eurovision! I would love more Verkas (though I think what makes them so special is how rare they are to some extent), I just think that in general they're not really ideal winners. I mean, I could see Eurovision getting away with a novelty winner at this stage but I remember how dire the contest's reputation was in 2007 and I'm not sure it would have survived Verka winning and then an influx of novelty songs in 2008. Plus, Verka's still one of the most iconic Eurovision entries ever despite not winning and the Russian grannies are still very well-remembered so I just never really feel like those entries need to win anyway. They get their time in the sun.

Verka is iconic but thank Christ it didn't win. That was the last thing Eurovision needed in the mid-2000s.

I wouldn't mind that prediction being accurate one bit.

Am I the only one who thinks she has a very plain tone, out of interest? Like, I'm sure she's super professional and everything but I'm finding it hard to get past her defining trait being a voice incapable of projecting personality.

Damn, there goes any chance of Estonia failing and I'm worried about Poland now.

I'm pretty confident that the odds make a massive difference. Nobody actually liked 'Sognu', everyone just wanted to look like they were in the group of people "smart" enough to appreciate it due to its status as the favourite. I think if there's one impactful trend in OGAE voting it's the voters wanting to look like they "get it". 'Occidentali's Karma' is gonna walk it this year.

Albania // 2015: Elhaida Dani [1] ~ 2016: Eneda Tarifa [2] ~ 2017: Lindita [3] Armenia // 2015: Genealogy [1] ~ 2016: Iveta Mukuchyan [3] ~ 2017: Artsvik [2] Australia // 2015: Guy Sebastian [3] ~ 2016: Dami Im [2] ~ 2017: Isaiah [1] Austria // 2015: The Makemakes [1] ~ 2016: ZOË [3] ~ 2017: Nathan Trent [2] Azerbaijan // 2015: Elnur Huseynov [1] ~ 2016: Samra [2] ~ 2017: Dihaj [3] Belarus // 2015: Uzari & Maimuna [2] ~ 2016: IVAN [1] ~ 2017: Naviband [3] Belgium // 2015: Loïc Nottet [2] ~ 2016: Laura Tesoro [1] ~ 2017: Blanche [3] Cyprus // 2015: John Karayiannis [2] ~ 2016: Minus One [3] ~ 2017: Hovig [1] Czech Republic // 2015: Marta Jandová & Václav Noid Bárta [1] ~ 2016: Gabriela Gunčíková [3] ~ 2017: Martina Bárta [2] Denmark // 2015 Anti Social Media [1] ~ 2016: Lighthouse X [2] ~ 2017: Anja [3] Estonia // 2015: Elina Born & Stig Rästa [2] ~ 2016: Jüri Pootsmann [1] ~ 2017: Koit Toome and Laura [3] Finland // 2015: Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät [1] ~ 2016: Sandhja [2] ~ 2017: Norma John [3] France // 2015: Lisa Angell [1] ~ 2016: Amir [3] ~ 2017: Alma [2] F.Y.R. Macedonia // 2015: Daniel Kajmakoski [1] ~ 2016: Kaliopi [2] ~ 2017: Jana Burčeska [3] Georgia // 2015: Nina Sublatti [3] ~ 2016: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz [2] ~ 2017: Tamara Gachechiladze [1] Germany // 2015: Ann Sophie [3] ~ 2016: Jamie-Lee [2] ~ 2017: Levina [1] Greece // 2015: Maria Elena Kyriakou [3] ~ 2016: Argo [1] ~ 2017: Demy [2] Hungary // 2015: Boggie [1] ~ 2016: Freddie [2] ~ 2017: Joci Pápai [3] Iceland // 2015: Maria Olafs [1] ~ 2016: Greta Salóme [2] ~ 2017: Svala [3] Ireland // 2015: Molly Sterling [3] ~ 2016: Nicky Byrne [2] ~ 2017: Brendan Murray [1] Israel // 2015: Nadav Guedj [3] ~ 2016: Hovi Star [1] ~ 2017: IMRI [2] Italy // 2015: Il Volo [1] ~ 2016: Francesca Michielin [3] ~ 2017: Francesco Gabbani [2] Latvia // 2015: Aminata [2] ~ 2016: Justs [3] ~ 2017: Triana Park [1] Lithuania // 2015: Monika Linkytė & Vaidas Baumila [2] ~ 2016: Donny Montell [1] ~ 2017: Fusedmarc [3] Malta // 2015: Amber [1] ~ 2016: Ira Losco [3] ~ 2017: Claudia Faniello [2] Moldova // 2015: Eduard Romanyuta [2] ~ 2016: Lidia Isac [3] ~ 2017: Sunstroke Project [1] Montenegro // 2015: Knez [1] ~ 2016: Highway [2] ~ 2017: Slavko Kalezić [3] Norway // 2015: Mørland & Debrah Scarlett [2] ~ 2016: Agnete [3] ~ 2017: JOWST [1] Poland // 2015: Monika Kuszyńska [2] ~ 2016: Michał Szpak [1] ~ 2017: Kasia Moś [3] Russia // 2015: Polina Gagarina [2] ~ 2016: Sergey Lazarev [3] ~ 2017: Julia Samoylova [1] San Marino // 2015: Michele Perniola & Anita Simoncini [1] ~ 2016: Serhat [2] ~ 2017: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson [3] Serbia // 2015: Bojana Stamenov [1] ~ 2016: Sanja Vučić ZAA [3] ~ 2017: Tijana Bogićević [2] Slovenia // 2015: Maraaya [3] ~ 2016: ManuElla [2] ~ 2017: Omar Naber [1] Spain // 2015: Edurne [3] ~ 2016: Barei [2] ~ 2017: Manel Navarro [1] Sweden // 2015: Måns Zelmerlöw [3] ~ 2016: Frans [1] ~ 2017: Robin Bengtsson [2] Switzerland // 2015: Mélanie René [1] ~ 2016: Rykka [2] ~ 2017: Timebelle [3] The Netherlands // 2015: Trijntje Oosterhuis [2] ~ 2016: Douwe Bob [1] ~ 2017: OG3NE [3] United Kingdom // 2015: Electro Velvet [2] ~ 2016: Joe and Jake [3] ~ 2017: Lucie Jones [1] 2015: 68 2016: 80 2017: 80 This actually looks about right to me. This year came through in the end.

Are you basing your prediction for Serbia on Malta's performance last year? I can't see how they do anywhere near as poorly in the televote as that.

'Amar pelos dois' is basically the new 'Sognu', isn't it?

I don't think it'll struggle to qualify that much. It's not the most diaspora-heavy semi for Armenia ever but it's got Georgia, Greece and Spain and probably more semi-relevant countries aside from those. Second half of the semi, they're obviously going to do a standout performance because it's an obviously trying Armenia, and it has a niche all to itself so... I don't see how this misses out to be honest.

Woah, this is just awful!

I'm surprised everyone is so negative about this, because I think it climaxes greatly while executing the early subtlety perfectly. It also brings much needed musical diversity to this year so all in all I'm very happy with it. Armenia continue to be essential.

Yeah I have to admit I feel a little bit bad for poor Claudia after reading that. 11 tries at representing your country and when they finally give you a shot, you're stuck with an absolutely useless song. Really interesting write-up on the chances of Romania, too. It changed my mind on how likely they are to do well.

The transition from the first chorus is awkward as hell but the song still functions and it's less catastrophic than last year's Italian revamp. As regards winning, I don't really feel like the change will make a difference either way. It's still either this or Sweden realistically.

It's depressing how similar the commentary for the Irish entry is year after year.

When do the commercial breaks typically happen in the semis?