John_Squire

Sales are pretty good right now, singles-wise. Between 2003 and 2007, they were pretty abysmal. So I was wondering how sales of songs would differ if they were released under different sales climates. The example that got me thinking of this was Orson's 'No Tomorrow'. Famously the worst-ever weekly sale for a number 1 single with 17k. I can't see total sales of this song being over 250k. Yet 2006 was one of the worst singles sales years ever. So what if Orson released that track now? It's the sort of song that doesn't exactly define an era, so if Orson were new now, they could potentially become popular for 15 minutes again. If No Tomorrow was going to enjoy the same kind of chart run now, it would probably sell 400k or more. The same for hits in other bad sales years: 'All The Things She Said', 'In Da Club', 'Breathe' and 'Crazy In Love' would all have topped 500k if they were released in the last 18 months. Girls Aloud, Keane, Sean Paul, Busted, Usher and Kylie would have probably sold double what they actually did with their various hits in the mid-Noughties. Madonna would never have joined the low-selling number 1s club. Similarly, the likes of Lady Gaga, Katy Perry and even Jason Derulo with consistently high overall sales would probably have been selling half of what they did, had they been released in 2003-6. Of course, there are other factors: genre popularity, media hype, appeal to certain markets, etc. My example of Orson could potentially release now, reach, say, #109 and sell fewer than 10k copies. Artists like Fall Out Boy, Atomic Kitten who had hits (if not big sales) in the lower sales period would almost certainly have fared worse in terms of popularity in 2008-now. I don't know. The only sales constant is probably Morrissey, whose recent sales can't be anywhere as disparate as his recent chart peaks.

50 Cent's In Da Club was interesting, it debuted at 4 then went down to 9 before steadily climbing to 3 and staying top 40 for 21 weeks (its top 20 was something like 4-9-8-6-5-3-3-5-7-12-12-16-20-20, maybe?) EDIT: 11-20 bit was way out! 4-9-8-5-{3}-3-5-7-8-11-13-12-16-20-22-22-23-28-31-30-35-45-56-66->24 It only sold something like 290,000 that year (2003); I imagine it'd be on about 2.5x that these days if not more. Gorillaz' Clint Eastwood went 4-5-6-4-5-6-9-9 IIRC. About those deletions back in 2006 - I thought they were rather stupid but it was actually kinda pleasing not to have the same big songs clogging up the chart all the year. Not just Gnarls and Nelly but Snow Patrol, etc...

Great for Plan B! When will it hit 500k? I'm thinking sometime this year - maybe October?

I'm surprised how well songs sell further down the chart. Even in 2002, the last big singles year before the physicals slump, I'd be surprised if the top 20 averaged over 14k and the #5s over 38k. Actually, does anyone have the breakdown for 2002?

'I Swear' is going to be pretty high on here, surely? And 'I'm Too Sexy'

I'm surprised that the Kinks are so high with 'All Day...', only 5 weeks top ten. I suppose if there had been a top 75 then they might well have racked up a lot more points, but that still looks quite high considering the songs around it.

Hasn't Where Is The Love sold more than 635k? IIRC it was over 600k in 2003 alone (623k?), and must have sold over 35k in nearly 7 years.

Strangers In The Night ain't bad, one of Frank's best IMO...

Simon and Garfunkel - BOTW isn't bad by any means, though; I guess they just deserved more #1s (certainly Mrs. Robinson and The Boxer are worthy and probably better than BOTW.) edited out non retro referances

How wrong I was. Hope it stays in the top 40 though and fingers crossed for top 30.

Probably peak between 8 and 12 but then drop like a stone, like 'On A Mission' did (OK, not a McFly-style drop, but an early Noughties pop one)

DJ Deekline - I Don't Smoke

I don't think so. Wonder if some of the Haiti single profits could go towards it though?

Possibly very low top 10, I'll say #10. But more realistically 15-20, about #18.

It's good but there are better big, overblown 80s songs that need reviving! I suppose 'DSB' deserves it somewhat having never been a hit, but I'm glad it didn't make #1.

Top 5, but I doubt #1. Maybe #3.

I think 2010 will not differ much from 2009 on the albums front. 5-10% up or down, possibly up if the recession gets better! Probably down though, but not by much at all. Singles too will be similar, don't know if any artists will dominate like GaGa or BEPs did last year, so I don't really expect a million-seller (though those two acts should both pass a million with 2009 singles)

Top 3 definitely. It's alright, it's like Hello Goodbye 'Here In Your Arms' but better. Doubt it'll be a highlight of the year for me though...

I think Marina has a shot at top 5, she's so hyped. Maybe #2, but I doubt it'd do number 1, it probably won't sell over 40k in a week. Florence couldn't go top 10 after all, despite her hype; I think Marina will do better on albums (possible #1 there).

Camera Obscura - French Navy. They may have broken through with the album, but that was a killer first single, yet it got to IIRC 141.

I don't think having the show recorded on Christmas Day would be that much of a problem! There would be plenty of people eager to work on it regardless of day. The audience may not want to give up Xmas, granted, so I could see the audience being largely made up of friends/family/distant associates of the finalists, plus (if it's allowed) paid audience members too.

Anyone got Last Christmas' actual (or to nearest thousand) for its biggest week at #2? Wasn't it #2 for at least a couple of weeks, maybe 3? It sold about 1.3m IIRC, Joe won't get anywhere near that (even if he makes #1 which I think he will pretty soon)

Should be a lot higher! It would be nice to see Thea go top 75 again.

Did Eternal ever have a single that sold as well as 'Whole Again'? I'm not sure but didn't 'I Wanna Be The Only One' sell 700-800k, where Whole Again sold IIRC 940k+.

400k max, but I'm probably wrong.