John_Squire

Take That should do 300k; certainly at least 250k first week (maybe a massive 350-500k sale closer to Christmas) JLS closer to 200k; I think less (180-190k) but possibly 200-220k. Take That over a million year's end; JLS just under (800-900)

Top 5 due to fanbase and Taio combined (probably around number 4) but doubt it'll be top 40 by Christmas.

I think it should be top 75. Do most people take 'one hit wonder' to mean one big hit (top 5, 10 or 20) as opposed to #1? Strictly speaking it means just a #1, right? I think most people wouldn't automatically think that, though.

I think some of the 2000 songs will be remembered as classics but not necessarily as number 1s - 'Stan' for instance. And Bob the Builder might be remembered for being number 1, but not for what the actual song goes like. Surprised more people don't remember Madison Avenue - it was pretty massive, I'd certainly rank it as one of the big dance #1s of 2000 (like Fragma, Spiller and Modjo) and not like, say, Black Legend, which isn't exactly high-profile. Thought Sonique would be bigger but you never hear it these days, S Club 7's 'Reach' on the other hand is still a cheesy classic and presumably far better known now. To be honest I love lots of those 2000 number 1s (don't even mind Westlife's Fool Again) but lots are forgettable by the general public. Though not as many as 2001: Five, Blue x2, a few by Westlife, two forgotten Robbie #1s, Emma Bunton (which is actually quite good...) I'd say 'true classics' are U2, Spiller, Robbie, Britney's Oops, and to a lesser extent Fragma, Ronan, Destiny's Child, Modjo and Craig David (perhaps more for his 7 Days sexploits) From this year, only Pass Out and Americano. Maybe 'Airplanes' and 'California Gurls' (the equivalent of 'Spinning Around' ?) Telephone isn't Gaga's best and is famous for the video. Usher's OMG isn't as big (or as good) as Yeah IMO and will probably fade like Burn. Owl City: flash in the pan, could be famous like Deep Blue Something though. Possibly Taio Cruz, though I doubt #1s by him or Tinchy Stryder will be well-known in 2020.

I would say don't count the 98 3 Lions but combine all the other chart runs (96,02,06) as they're for the exact same song aren't they? Not Band Aid

37

I think the Manics will probably top 40k but I doubt The Script will be below 40k themselves - and Phil will probably get a fair few sales on Saturday, he's hardly a rush-out-and-buy sort of artist. Manics #3 methinks, but fairly close - possibly 2k between the three of them?

Must be at least 50k more than Lonestar. Didn't Amazed sell 170k ish at the time?

This but Brandon and Katy other way round. Interpol low top ten. Most of the rest top 20 or top 30.

Rock'll come back. Probably. Ten years ago there was very little rock in the charts as far as I recall. The only big hits I can recall that are vaguely 'rock' (which I guess encompasses anything guitary that isn't straight-up pop) are 'Beautiful Day', 'Take A Look Around' and 'Smooth'. I don't know but I'd imagine that those percentages in the MW article would have been similar for 2000, only with dance occupying a good 20-30% and rock probably even lower - 10-15%? Between Britpop (and most of that would be lumped into rock/indie, surely) and late 03-early 04 (discounting nu-metal, and the Strokes, White Stripes and KoL's first big hit albums), rock was nowhere excepting the occasional big hit. Same from late 07 (or early 08) to now. Of course, the singles markets that got Iron Maiden a number 1, U2 and Oasis multiple number 1s, are dead thanks to downloads. Then again, chart runs for 'She Sells Sanctuary' or 'This Charming Man' (ok indie not rock there) wouldn't be out of place now.

74-75 (not The Connells' song, which is good) wasn't great for hits overall. Tail end of glam and the Rollers. Not great. As for out-of-place stuff (but in a totally brilliant way) how about Rumer's Slow? Still top 40 this week, doesn't sound like it was recorded this side of thirty years ago, yet it's completely wonderful.

Ah, no, Westlife being better...that's a bit too far. I'm not that fussed on IHAD, but Abba's version has its good bits - the music after Frida says 'I have a dream' is pretty good, and the pause in 'I believe in angels' near the end.

Singles - 60s Albums - 80s Of course, you can't really make things that clear-cut. If I go by favourite songs/favourite album tracks/etc, then the 70s, 90s and 00s could all come out on top. Growing up in an era does affect things too - I really like a lot of chart music from about 2000-2003, whereas a lot of people don't at all.

I don't understand the bit about copies. Does that mean he includes sales of all blank cassettes/CDRs sold in a week, or not?

As Plan B's dropped quite a bit, does that mean relatively decent sales for the top 10 albums? Hopefully 14k+.

Hmm. I don't know if they're going to pull in many new fans, and are a lot of their 04-05 fans going to buy McFly songs these days? Maybe. I think potentially around 35k and #7. If this is going to chart in mid-September then won't it be in an increased sales climate? Summer always used to be quieter for sales although I don't know if that's the same now with downloads. If they had released in July maybe challenge for the #1 but would they realistically have sold the 60k+ that you need to have a serious shot at #1 most weeks? Probably not.

Absolutely abhorrent idea UNLESS if they did it whereby every song a user plays in a week is listed as one 'sale' for that song, regardless of how many times the songs are played. If you buy a CD or a download you could listen to it 100 times a week, but only that one sale is added to the chart totals. Therefore, if you stream a song 100 times in a week, it should count as one 'sale' only, for that week. That's fair, and stops chart manipulation by people streaming 500 times a week and every time counting. If they did it like that, the only difference to now would be that if a person streamed a song the following week, and the week after that, etc, then it would be equivalent to the person buying a new CD/download every week, which I doubt even 0.00001% of people actually do at the moment. That would boost 'sales', of course, though probably not long-term for particular songs, as I imagine most people go through phases where they play a song a lot, then not so much or not at all: often the time when the song is most popular chart-wise anyway. Perhaps an artificial (non-paid sales) boost for 4-6, maybe 8 or 10 weeks of a song's peak popularity, decreasing as the song loses general popularity. That would be OK. If the OCC/whoever did want to be anal about it they could include as many plays of a song from one streaming site as they currently allow multiple purchases of singles/downloads from a single source. The problem there is that if that permitted total was, say, 5, then a song streamed only 5 times (but with all 5 counting) by one person would be as popular in terms of the chart as a song streamed 50 times by one person but with only 5 counting, when of course it isn't; this would always be a problem when using what's basically airplay, not sales. Hence why it should be one weekly sale per streamed song, regardless of the number of times it's played that week. As for songs that otherwise wouldn't get into the charts, like 60s/70s/80s/90s stuff that doesn't have TV show exposure: yes, those songs would gain greater 'sales' via streaming, but it's unlikely to affect the charts much, as songs that would chart highly will also be streamed highly, keeping things pretty much as they are now.

Not as good as first album singles but probably better than second album singles. Probably peak around number 12. I don't think the album will make #1 this time, though; if it does, I can see it falling very quickly.

It would be stupid to ban front-loaded singles. For a start, U2 would never have knocked Bryan Adams off number 1 had a no front loading rule been in place. Second - I think the argument is irrelevant now. Ten years ago when many/most number 1s as well as number 2s and 3s peaked then bombed - then maybe there would be justification (though I don't think so.) Now, though, even the number 30-odds often hang around - take Mumford and Sons as an example. A chart run like Lonestar's 'Amazed' would now be commonplace. JLS may be front loaded and have a short chart run compared to other number 1s, but not compared to McFly's 1-20-39 or even (from 2000) Oasis' 1-4-17-38, and the Manic Street Preachers' 1-4-20-39. Furthermore, even when most #1s debut at #1 (as in 2000/01), then not all sink straight away. Examples: Eminem and Ronan Keating hung around the top 10. Spiller and Madonna sank quite quickly but hung around the 20s/30s for ages. The only major examples of front-loaded big hits tend to be pop now: JLS, Pixie Lott, The Wanted. You could include Cheryl Cole, but I'd argue she stuck around with FFTL and sold a lot after the huge first week sales anyway. So, it would be banning pop hits, essentially. Finally, give indie bands a break! The only way a guitar band could enjoy a big hit chart-wise was from front-loaded sales. With such genres (indie/rock/whatever) finding it hard to chart nowadays, they need front-loading more than ever! (Except if you're Kings Of Leon or Snow Patrol.) PS The premise of a non-number 1 being year end number 1 isn't so shocking IMO. Natalie Imbruglia and Wham could well have done it, a couple of years either way. Even Robbie's Angels, a number 4.

Thought I'd make a topic as I've been listening to a lot of 'em recently. f*** me, they're good though, aren't they. Now I imagine that on this forum there are going to be a fair number of fans, and equally plenty of people who can see the merits of the group even if they personally don't like them. I think that the general perception of ABBA, though, undervalues them - they're seen as naff, or simply a load of old crap, by many people. I'm 20 and there are many people I know, around my age, who will happily bum so-so rock music from the 70s but are disdainful towards ABBA. But why? I know the image doesn't help (hen parties, people's aunties/mums/grans, the costumes, Mamma Mia etc etc etc), nor the most popular, overplayed hits. Mamma Mia, Dancing Queen and Waterloo are certainly not anywhere near as good as many other ABBA tracks. Although Dancing Queen is an astonishingly well-produced piece of pop music. Going through from early 76 when they really took off: Arrival Not a bad album and their biggest (studio album.) Not their best though. The problem with a lot of earlier ABBA is poor lyrics. I don't mean that their English was bad - it's always brilliant - and even the early lyrics are ofen quite clever. But 'Dum Dum Diddle'. Seriously? I read somewhere that it was a case of making the lyrics fit the tune a lot of the time, but that's no excuse!!! The triteness of the lyrics spoils that particular song, which musically and vocally is very good. Of course on the same album you have the sublime 'Knowing Me, Knowing You' which is easily one of the best UK number ones ever, not simply ABBA songs. 'Tiger' is good musically if rather sinister lyrically, Agnetha's vocals are amongst her best on the album. Not bad, but it got better. The Album In my opinion the first side stands up to any one side of any 70s album if not any album. The Name of the Game, that other classic ABBA UK #1, so well-produced. Eagle, the weakest track on the side, but imagine it with a male vocal on a soft-rock album from America and it'd be a well-regarded staple even now. It's underrated because it's ABBA. One Man, One Woman - great lyric, great guitar. Take A Chance On Me, truly great bubblegum pop. Second side not as strong - not at all - but good. They're getting better... Voulez-Vous And they're still getting better. What a good album this is! The only problem (a problem which hinders their albums 'til the final one) is putting the dud tracks in the middle of sides. As in, 'I Have A Dream' here - it doesn't fit with the rest of side 1, and is the worst track on the album (it's still a well-crafted song though.) Also, though it's good, Chiquitita is out of place haflway through side 2. But apart from them - whoa! There were four UK singles off this album (five with the double A) and they were the worst four tracks, to be honest (Angeleyes aside.) They missed a trick with 'If It Wasn't For The Nights', the track is practically perfect and is the single best Abba song not to be a single. Super Trouper Highs and lows here - they have a third great #1, TWTIA, and there's Lay All Your Love On Me, the underrated Me And I, and the brash On and On and On which would have fitted in on Voulez-Vous. But then you have Happy New Year right in the middle of the album. Yeah, it's OK, but y'know. I like The Piper, but it's very twee and again, not great in the middle of side 2. And the closing track is actually quite good, but doesn't suit the overall nature of the album (if anything, more suited to The Visitors.) Good, but not great. The Visitors But boy, is this one great. It's so dark, so deep, so haunting, very well produced, no duffers in the middle (Two For The Price Of One is as close as it gets, and that's really very good), and whilst not really an album filled with pop hits excepting One of Us - and the massively underrated Head over Heels, every track is a standout, especially on side 1. And late ABBA produced so many fine tracks that flopped - TDBYC, Under Attack - and brilliant B-sides. So, yeah. Opinions?

Tenuous top 10: 1. James and the Cold Gun 2. L'Amour Looks Something Like You 3. Saxophone Song 4. Army Dreamers 5. Babooshka 6. Running Up That Hill 7. Feel It 8. Them Heavy People 9. Delius 10. Pi Need to properly get into second side of Aerial, played it a few times but never totally immersed myself.

If you start counting people who were part of various acts then there must be some rapper who breaks Sash's record. There have been a fair few rap artists who peaked at 2 - Pras (w/o Fugees), Mase, until recently Snoop Dogg, Busta Rhymes, Jay-Z. And of course people who featured on #2s by artists who have had number ones.

First thoughts were a chart run something like 18-37-50s-60s-out, if songs still do that. Maybe not though, but I can't see her being a big success this time around, a shame but it's inevitable. Could scrape low top 10 a la Gabriella Cilmi but I doubt I'll be eating my words much. Top 20 shoe-in.

Marina's going to peak outside top 40 then? Shame, but it's not her best.

Snoop Dogg - Snoop Dogg (or Snooooooooooooooooooop Dogg) and arguably What's My Name? (and Tha Doggfather??)