You still think the Netherlands will qualify?
I don't like the Serbian song but I'm sure it will qualify. I think that FYR Macedonia will bomb and also Malta will be too boring. But Belarus will have a good chance I think. It's the first real uptempo song in the beginning of the show. Portugal don't have spain or switzerland to support them and I think that with the televote it will bomb. Maybe jury will vote for it, but with the 50/50 result I don't think it will be enough to qualify and also it is right after the commercial break.
Then there is Ukraine, and they will easily qualify, because it's Ukraine. I just hate Bulgaria and with Slovenia right after it, it just won't qualify. Jury won't go nuts and televote either. Slovenia sounds good and is a nice change for the up tempo songs before it. Then there is Croatia. It can have diaspora voting but I don't think the jury think it's the best in this genre in this semifinal and right after it is favorite Sweden. Sweden will qualiyfy for sure with jury and televote support. Then there is Georgia. I really hate the song but it's Georgia.... I wouldn't be surprised that with diaspora it can make it. But I am really not sure. Jury won't support it I think and Turkey is right after. Turkey will make it for sure with lots of televote support from the netherlands, uk, france, etc.
Over to Estonia. I don't like it, but I know a lot of people do. When I look back to 2011 with Rockefeller street barely qualifying because of the judges, I really don't know if they will make it this year. It could get some jury support but I think people consider it to be too boring and there is Bosnia and Serbia... I doubt it will make it. Over to Slovakia. Well.... It's different than the rest of the semi so people might like it. Not sure about this one. It's uptempo and is followed by a popular song from Norway. So I think votes will go to Norway instead. Norway will make it with support from the west and east. Maybe not much support from the jury but enough to go to the top. over to Bosnia... After an uptempo song people will like a ballad I think. and it also is a late draw. and it's bosnia so I think they will make it because there is enough support from the netherlands, uk etc.
Finally Lithuania. I like it, even more than bosnia. But will it be anough to go to the top 10? I think it will with the love is blind theme, the up tempo sound and the difference between bosnia and norway.
So here is my list of the 10 qualifiers:
-Serbia
-Belarus
-Ukraine
-Slovenia
-Sweden
-Turkey
-Norway
-Bosnia
-Lithuania
and then there is one place left.... And I think it could be any song. Though I hope it will be the Netherlands I really think that it could be a shock, maybe Georgia because of diaspora, or Estonia because of jury suppory and swede, norway, belarus voting, or croatia.
What are your thoughts?