Sagand

This update been posted? officialcharts .com/chart-news/christmas-number-1-2022-sidemen-smash-all-the-way-into-the-top-10-overnight-with-christmas-drillings-how-far-can-the-youtube-supergroup-soar-before-tomorrow-__38165/ Sidemen sold 11,000 on Wednesday and are at number 9, Kunts up to 7, Top 5 unchanged from Wednesday's update (No sales or gap info for them).

"The way to stop [Ladbaby] is to go to our site and download our songs 12 times" Aren't the reason these two hate each other so much is that they're exactly the same. They both release shit songs to try bring publicity to themselves, they both think a joke is using an inappropriate in a song title (whether it be Kunt or Sausage roll) and both willing to lie about it to sell more copies. "Buying our song is the best way to donate to the charity", "Buying our song is the best way to stop them". The only difference being The Kunts are profiting directly from sales, and Ladbaby from the promotion with the by product of 300k gone to charity (not a great return if 600k has been spent on buying the songs) In an ideal world this year would be the last time we see either of them on the charts.

LadBaby on 116,000 according to James Masterton (https://chart-watch.uk/xmas-no-1)

After VAT, iTunes share, Starships share and what LadBaby’s website describe as “label and management” fees the charity would probably be better off if you buy Ava for 59p and donate 40p direct.

Masterton has updated. Ava maintaining lead of 2500 over LadBaby, and extended lead to 3000 over Ariana. Missing day of streaming means Ava’s lead closer to 8000 over LadBaby and would have to be pushing her below 0.2 on Kworb to stand a chance.

Closer to hundreds than thousands, last week she gained 2.4k between Thursday and Friday (but she was also gaining every other day too) so much less than that, I would guess 500ish.

It doesn't matter; they were a day behind last week too. When the missing data is added on Friday it may well help Ariana, but it helped her last week too. (It will help less this week because the streaming gap is smaller.)

I can think of many ways to do the maths, none of them have Ariana coming out ahead. Compare last week's Tuesday midweek to this weeks. Last week Ariana lead by 5k and this week is down by 2.2k - two days of youtube. So say each day of youtube is worth 400 sales more to Ariana than Ava that closes the gap by 800 to 1.4k. Ariana is doing at least 6.4k worse than last week (which is a like-for-like comparsion after 4 days of sales and 3 of streaming) If she does 8.7k worse over the whole week she loses number one. Alternatively looking just at Spotify streams (assume they are representative of the whole streaming market) Ava is up 17% comparing last week Fri/Sat/Sun numbers and Ariana is down 8%. If you take Ariana's total streaming sales last week and reduce by 8% (53,754 * 0.92) to comes to 49,453 and increase Ava's by 17% (guessing Ava digital sales last week at 10,000/streaming 39,708) (39,708*1.17 = 46,458) If Ariana is only leading streaming by 49,453 to 46,458, Ava easily has the sales to take the lead.

I guess the bookies have taken a lot of money Ariana so her keeping her shorter than she really should be. Ariana is completely out of the race, Ava increased the lead by 950 with only missing youtube data so unless Ariana is leading on youtube by 1000 sales per day (she's not) Ava will keep increasing the lead as the week goes on. The only threat is a LadBaby sales surge if media pick up on it more, even then Ava has a comfortable lead with LadBaby having virtually no missing streaming.

I don't see how Ariana can overtake Ava at from this point. Comparing this week to last week Ariana was up 3.8k last week and down 1.7k this week. So she is doing 5.5k worse comparatively with almost the same data missing. (The gap may actually be 300ish copies different due to an extra day of youtube being missing). But with most of the week still to be counted she's 5k worse and can only afford to be 8.7k worse overall.

MintRoyale tweeted “I think Ava Max is going to be Christmas number one! #possibly” It’ll be very interesting what the midweek shows, Ava will be leading due to missing streaming but by how much?

If you guess that sales are similar to last week, give Ava 11,000 sales and Ariana 4,000 (fitting the nearly 3-1 lead), a lead of 7,000 so Ariana needs to close by 1,000 sales per day on streaming. You take 800 from Spotify + Apple music + youtube video streams. She probably is closing 1,000 a day at the moment, but the streaming lead will continue to fall during the week. (If the pattern this week follows last week Sunday's streams should be only a lead of 80,000 on Spotify) It is going to be very close. I'd still guess Ariana by less than 1k.

When you lay an outcome you set the backer stake aka your winnings rather than how much you want to bet. So the £2 would be your winnings and the £1,689 is how much you'd have to bet to win that.