Sandro Raniere

Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina are widely thought of as the worlds best 2 election strategists, Crosby won 4 elections for John Howard and Messina got Obama in last year, many many people thought Romney would win the presidency but Messina turned that around and got Obama another 4 years Those 2 are heading out campaign, they know what they are doing

If they are so unimportant why is there such a mad rush to get on the ladder? if they are such a burden and debt mountain why is there such demand particularly among first time buyers? why do the media constantly harp on about them? simple reason being people think it is a licence to print money Demand among people who were previously renting or living with parents has rocketed under Osborne's scheme, only today 2 new banks came on board, they would not do that unless there was demand among first time buyers, first time buyers think they are hopping on board a gravy train, otherwise they would just carry on giving a landlord money every month Lets go back 30 years too, what was Maggie's flagship policy? The one widely credited with winning seats in working class areas in 83 and 87, letting council tenants buy their own homes, now why would these council tenants take on these commitments? why not just live out their lives giving the council money? simple reason was that they thought it free money, joining a gravy train

Then with all due respect they are lazy, they work to live as opposed to live to work Work and making money is the most important thing in life imho, apart from good health, if they are in good health they should just get on with it Bernie Ecclestone is stilll working at 83, Jackie Stewart in his 70s, Murray Walker still goes to most F1 races at 90, the ones who are under 50 odd and moaning dont have a strong work ethic, i bet they take a sickie the day after england games or of the weather is great It is right that people work longer before getting a pension, with advances in medicine and prosperity people are living longer and longer 20 years ago people would retire at 65 and typically be dead by 75, now people who are 65 can expect to live to 80 and beyond due to improved medicine

What happens now is pretty unimportant but between now and 2015 the only way is up for both GDP and house prices Creating new homeowners is a masterstroke by Gideon as homeowners overwhelmingly vote tory according to polls, its almost a brilliant form of ethical gerrymandering

Inflation will be low, barely 2% Employers feel buoyant atm and will feel even more so in a years time, pay rises starting April 2015 will outstrip the cost of living imho

Yes because homeowners would vote en masse for us due to rising prices, they are quids in Crosby had said the entire election strategy is going to be based on fighting hard in 50 marginals Winning 20 or more of those on the back of a fast growing economy in 2015 and especially rising house prices for house owners in those constituencies, makes winning 20 or so more than 2010 more than achieveable

After todays Autumn Statement i revise my prediction upwards from a Tory majority of about 20 to one of 30-40 in 2015

Its not the government that is making the forecasts though, it is the OBR an independent body with no political affiliations They could be wrong yes, equally they could exceed 2.4% as the OBR heavily underestimated our growth this year But strong growth will lead to bigger wage packets so the UK workforce could be feeling very good indeed when they get their first salary of the 2015 financial year days before general election

If growth next year is 2.4% then people will see the recovery with their own eyes and in more cases than not feel it in their pockets in early 2015 2.4% is impressive growth, almost a boom

A great autumn statement from Gideon Growth double original predictions, up to 2.4% next year Help for consumers with a CUT in energy bills of £50, rail fares capped, and fuel price rise cancelled More houses to be built to help first time buyers Curbs on benefit Ed Balls' foaming at the mouth mad ramblings did nothing to help Labour's image too Good day for tories

I felt absolutely fine :P Just doing any research or deep thinking was too much effort :P

Cameron is far more likely to talk about rising house prices, falling unemployment, improving construction and manufacturing sector, strong retail sales etc Ed will just go on and on about energy prices, Google's tax affairs, how posh Cameron is, 'tax cuts for millionaires', and bankers bonuses It is Ed who is likely to be far more the negative of the 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdo...n_debates,_2010 On many scorecards Cameron won debate 2 and 3

I remember vividly polls showing Cameron won 2 of the debates and Clegg 1 of them based on public feedback He has many faults but Cameron is an outstanding orator

Cameron wants a debate, he has made that clear, but the sticking point is Farage, he doesn't believe UKIP should take part as they have no MPs, if Farage is excluded he will take part Cameron wiped the floor with Brown and Clegg in the 2010 debates, nothing to fear

Pretty sure JLS did a copy once of Sweet Dreams so might work for Rough Copy, although JLS are about 20 times better!

Been there a couple of times, 4x4 experience is amazing :wub: less amazing is the lack of alcohol outside Dubai Mall when one watches the fountains outside the Burj Khalifa but drink is not everything in life :) Stuck between Abu Dhabi and Canada really, Abu Dhabi has Yas Marina, an F1 race and Ferrari world whereas Canada has snow in winter but in all honesty i would rather stay here, lets hope get to after May 15 :)

I have already been keeping one eye on the overseas job market in anticipation of 2015 and Ed getting in I have already seen jobs that match my skillset and experience in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Canada, New Zealand and Singapore Decisions decisions ;)

Dont worry about me :) Ed wins in 2015 i will be too busy searching online for one way tickets out of the UK to get stressed

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/n...property-market Ok only one sector but even Labour supporting Guardian talks of a 6 year high for the construction sector

The election is not tomorrow, it is in 17 months time, lots of time for the good news to filter through to more parts of the country Only today there was more good news http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-25...thers-pace.html Our factories are performing better than any other nation in Europe, factory workers tend to be blue collar labour voters so the growing demand is even working its way into labour heartlands Expect a lot of good economic news the next 17 months

Falling in Nottingham and Newcastle or wherever they did will not make a lot of difference, London and SE and Midlands are the heartbeat of this country economically so as long as prices are rising there people will FEEL better off As for retail sales, Amazon doing 47 sales a SECOND yesterday, Nat West servers crashing due to sheer demand and massive fights at Asda on Friday and long queues suggests the retail sector is buoyant

A strong growing economy plus Crosby getting his media pals to destroy Miliband in print will, not that i condone personal attacks on Ed

A vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed via the back door, tory voters know that, thats why i dont think many traditional tories will vote UKIP

The Daily Mail, Express, Sun etc will lay into Miliband like they have no politician in history in the build up to the next election and undoubtedly some or even many will be influenced enough to be put off voting for Ed This is going to be a dirty campaign, perhaps the dirtiest the western world has ever seen, the attacks on Ed from the media will be remorseless and relentless I think Ed is a well meaning decent man but as dynamic as a dead dog