MY PREDICTIONS:
(all Alts are listed in my predicted order of likelihood)
Best Picture
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. Top Gun: Maverick
04. The Fabelmans
05. TÁR
06. Elvis
07. Avatar: The Way of Water
08. The Whale
09. Babylon
10. Aftersun
Alts: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, All Quiet on the Western Front, RRR, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story, Women Talking
A really interesting category this year!! Normally we have like eight slots locked at this point, but quite frankly only the top six is locked this year. I think Avatar 2 is too big to miss & The Whale is surging at the right time. 9th and 10th are total crapshoots but I feel Babylon is gonna pull a Nightmare Alley and Aftersun will be that indie hit sneaking in. Feels weird not predicting one of the three foreign language contenders here, one of those probably sneaks in.
Best Director
01. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
02. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
03. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
04. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
05. Todd Field, TÁR
Alts: McDonagh (Banshees of Inisherin), Rajmouli (RRR), Cameron (Avatar 2), Luhrmann (Elvis), Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King), Chazelle (Babylon), Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
Director is such an interesting category nowadays! Only feel confident in The Daniels (Spielberg as well but the BAFTA longlist miss is concerning). Can literally see any one of my alts making this line-up!
Best Actor
01. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
02. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
03. Austin Butler, Elvis
04. Bill Nighy, Living
05. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Alt: Mescal (Aftersun), Pope (The Inspection), Cruise (Top Gun 2), Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Top 3 locked and Nighy should happen. 5th spot is utterly mad this year, could be many many people and could be an utterly crazy nom here?! I have a gut feeling about LaBelle though. Mescal is def close, especially as I'm predicting an Aftersun overperformance still despite the disappointing BAFTA showing. Can Hanks pop up here out of nowhere with a late breaking box office hit?
Best Actress
01. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
02. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
03. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
04. Margot Robbie, Babylon
05. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Alts: Williams (The Fabelmans), De Armas (Blonde), Davis (The Woman King)
Lol my fave category and I'm going messy with my predictions. Top 2 are locked. I feel confident in Deadwyler too (I will be heartbroken if she misses). I think Babylon over performs and Robbie still makes it (also just me being stubborn & refusing to stop predicting her because I was so certain this was her Oscar winning role :cry:). And I cannot in my heart not predict Riseborough after the crazy last week and a bit!!! All the random A-list endorsements on twitter!! The Frances Fisher led grassroots campaign! Winslet calling it the best female performance of all time!!! Would be one of the most out of nowhere & craziest noms ever but my gosh I hope it happens now!!
Williams I think might category split (I feel she still gets in somewhere but I don't know who to kick out, I have her 6th in both rn!). De Armas def has the passion to make it but I refuse to acknowledge that horror getting a single Oscar nom. Davis has all the precursors but screams Oscar snub, this is the biggest test of whether she's hit name-checking mode yet!
Best Supporting Actor
01. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
02. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
03. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
05. Brad Pitt, Babylon
alts: Henry (Causeway), Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Rylance (Bones & All), Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Hanks (Elvis), Teller (Top Gun 2), Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Top 3 locked & feel good about Dano. 5th spot I have no idea so I've played it safe and stuck with Pitt. Think we might be getting a nod as random as Simmons for Being the Ricardos last year here. (Henry to plz make it as a passion nom or Teller to appear out of nowhere!!). I feel like Redmayne is nowhere near making it despite hitting every precursor somehow
Best Supporting Actress
01. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
02. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
03. Hong Chau, The Whale
04. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
05. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alts: Williams (The Fabelmans), De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Hoss (TÁR), Buckley (Women Talking), Monae (Glass Onion), Mulligan (She Said), Lou Wood (Living), Smart (Babylon)
From what went from being one of the craziest categories a month ago to feeling like my most secure prediction?! Condon is in, Hsu has the passion + film, Chau has the late breaking film + role, Bassett has the precursor wins (though I'm not sold despite this, I think the Marvel tag could lead to a shock snub) and Curtis has the overdue narrative + film. Only other realistic contenders here I think are Williams ending up in supporting or De Leon as a passion nom (and maaaaybe Hoss for the same reason as De Leon).
Best Original Screenplay
01. The Banshees of Inisherin
02. Everything Everywhere All at Once
03. TÁR
04. Aftersun
05. The Fabelmans
Alts: Triangle of Sadness, Elvis, Decision to Leave
Six-horse race here, going with Triangle underperforming and getting snubbed (though I feel TOS might overperform so easily and make my predictions a mess)
Best Adapted Screenplay
01. The Whale
02. Living
03. Top Gun: Maverick
04. Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
05. All Quiet on the Western Front
Alts: Women Talking, White Noise, Glass Onion, She Said, Bones & All
What a MESSY category. The Whale is literally the only one I feel confident in!! About a month ago Women Talking & Glass Onion were the frontrunners and I'm predicting shock snubs for both. The former seems passionless and the BAFTA snub finally gave me the push to remove it from my predictions, and the latter feels like the kind of thing they might not go for. Can once again see any of my alts in over literally any of my predictions lol
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Best Animated Feature
01. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
02. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
03. Turning Red
04. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
05. Wendell & Wild
Alts: My Father's Dragon, The Bad Guys, The Sea Beast, Inu-Oh, Minions 2
Top 3 are in. Marcel screams the shock snub as the Academy don't like live-action bits but idek what to replace it with this year. W&W also feels passionless but so do the alternates
Best Foreign Language Film
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Argentina, 1985
03. Close
04. EO
05. The Quiet Girl
Alts: Decision to Leave, Holy Spider, Bardo, Saint Omer, Return to Seoul, Joyland
As usual there will be random nods and shock snubs here. Predicting Decision to Leave as the shock snub.
Best Documentary Feature
01. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
02. All That Breathes
03. Descendant
04. Fire of Love
05. The Territory
Alts: Moonage Daydream, Navalny, The Janes, Retrograde, A House Made of Splinters
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Best Original Score
01. Babylon
02. The Fabelmans
03. Women Talking
04. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
05. The Banshees of Inisherin
Alts: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Nope, Avatar: The Way of Water
Women Talking avoids 'this had Oscar buzz' with a nom here.
Best Original Song
01. Ciao Papa, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
02. Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick
03. Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. Carolina, Where the Crawdads Sing
05. Naatu Naatu, RRR
Alt: Applause (Tell It Like a Woman), Dust & Ash (The Voice of Dust & Ash), This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stand Up (Till), New Body Rhumba (White Noise)
Going with the globes five feels risky but screw it. ROOTING for Taylor so badly here, this is def her best shot yet! RRR is either winning or getting snubbed, lowkey leaning towards the latter. It feels stupid to not predict both of Diane Warren or music branch president J. Ralph, let alone either one. They'll both probs kick out the good songs knowing our luck.
Best Film Editing
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. Everything Everywhere All at Once
03. Elvis
04. Avatar: The Way of Water
05. All Quiet on the Western Front
Alts: The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Babylon, Aftersun, TÁR
Best Cinematography
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. All Quiet on the Western Front
03. Avatar: The Way of Water
04. Empire of Light
05. Elvis
Alt: The Fabelmans, Babylon, Bardo, Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Decision to Leave, The Batman, Nope, Aftersun
Lol I can see many many films popping up here. Top Gun 2 feels locked, AQOTWF should be in unless it really is just a random BAFTA film this year & Elvis feels like the shit this branch will go for. Predicting The Batman to be snubbed all round which is definitely a risky prediction.
Also Empire of Light avoids major 'this had Oscar buzz' status here
Best Production Design
01. Babylon
02. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
03. Elvis
04. The Fabelmans
05. Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Alts: Avatar 2, Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion, Bardo, The Woman King, White Noise
Best Costume Design
01. Elvis
02. Babylon
03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
05. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alts: The Woman King, Living, The Fabelmans, Corsage
Best Makeup
01. Elvis
02. The Whale
03. All Quiet on the Western Front
04. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
05. Babylon
Alts: The Batman, Blonde, Amsterdam
Best Sound
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. Avatar: The Way of Water
03. All Quiet on the Western Front
04. Elvis
05. Babylon
Alts: Mooange Daydream, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, The Batman, Black Panther 2
Best Visual Effects
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. All Quiet on the Western Front
04. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
05. Thirteen Lives
Alts: The Batman, Jurassic World 3, Doctor Strange 2, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3
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Best Documentary Short Subject
01. The Flagmakers
02. The Elephant Whisperers
03. How Do You Measure a Year?
04. The Martha Mitchell Effect
05. Shut Up and Paint
Best Animated Short Film
01. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
02. Save Ralph
03. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
04. Sierra
05. New Moon
Best Live Action Short Film
01. Le Pupille
02. An Irish Goodbye
03. The Treatment
04. The Red Suitcase
05. The Lone Wolf
Absolute crapshoots in the shorts category as usual. Come thru the boy, t he mole, the fox and the horse in animated!!
I am also rooting for An Ostrich... and My Year of Dicks to be nominated in the shorts too!!
Predicted nom count:
Everything Everywhere All at Once – 9
Babylon – 8
Elvis - 8
Top Gun: Maverick – 8
All Quiet on the Western Front – 7
The Banshees of Inisherin – 7
The Fabelmans – 7
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 6
Avatar: The Way of Water – 5
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio – 5
The Whale - 5
TÁR - 4
Aftersun – 3
Living - 2
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – 1
All That Breathes - 1
Argentina, 1985 – 1
Close – 1
Descendant – 1
Empire of Light - 1
EO – 1
Fire of Love - 1
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – 1
Mrs. Harris Goest to Parris – 1
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – 1
RRR - 1
The Quiet Girl – 1
The Territory – 1
Thirteen Lives - 1
Till – 1
To Leslie – 1
Turning Red – 1
Wendell & Wild – 1
Where the Crawdads Sing - 1
Women Talking – 1
All the Shorts - 1
Pretty happy with this on the whole. Though Babylon feels too high, Banshees feels too low, three films with 5+ noms missing best picture, and completely snubbing Triangle of Sadness (I didn't realise I did this until now!! I do not feel good about that I def think it shows up somewhere) and The Woman King are the ones I feel least confident on. (Also think TÁR can overperform and end up with 6/7)
<3