BellyClarkson

People keep under estimating Taylor’s fanbase and influence on the charts, I thought after the past week people would understand, especially in the US which trials to the U.K. also

No one has said that? Just that the eras tour helped make Sabrina a mainstream artist? Which is a fact. The amount of promo and Viral TikToks/articles/social media presence from the tour dramatically helped her, first day listens were huge compared to her previous entries. The song itself is a hit also, but it’s not had to organically grow like Hozier’s Too Sweet because of her presence on the eras tour helping her become well known. Nothing wrong with great promo? And I don’t doubt the song will have grown to huge streams with other being on the eras tour, but it would have taken weeks longer imo; but she had a shortcut, which is good going and good of her/her team to get her on that tour. It’s exactly the same that going on the X factor and being a judge really helped Cheryl become a household name and allowed her music to debut straight away at #1 compared to Nadine/others, it gave her a head start/ big platform.. with the exact same music and no X factor she wouldn’t have had such high first few week sales, she would have had to grow each week - Just a question, do you know how promo works?

TikTok is a HUGE promo, it’s how the majority of songs go viral and hit the top of Spotify now, the eras tour has been huge on TikTok, people don’t have to be physically there in the country to see clips of the eras tour?? That’s quite dumb logic. I’ve not been and seen loads of videos. People aren’t saying it’s the only reason it’s big, but it was great promo for her and made her known to millions who didn’t know her, allowing the song to start high and in the top 10 on its first day.

Lover was an initial flop compared to her previous successes id agree, but her resurgence started in 2020 with folklore, it had longetivity remaining in the charts (no huge first week sales but it kept her around)

Taylor wasn’t anywhere near as big as she is now compared to 2018, her last tour came after a decline in her success, Rep had little longetivity. Taylor in 2023/2024 is the biggest she or anyone this past 10 years has been. The tour Sabrina was the starter act is the biggest grossing tour of all time and the biggest demand a tour has seen in so many years.

I think he’s right, the eras tour promo was huge, and viral over TikTok. It made Sabrina an A lister. The Tour is what skyrocketed her career and was her big break

I imagine she will get 10K sales regardless from these CDs because of the fanbase themselves wanting to collect it. It’s not strongly advertised except an email for those on the website. Will 10K be enough to bridge a 200K a day Spotify gap? Not sure how that translates (probably will be if 2K gap after 3 days of tracking, yes the gap is increasing but imagine it’ll only end up about 6-8k ahead by the end of the week)

Sabrina will get it the next week anyway so it’s not going to prevent her hitting #1

I was gonna say that couldn’t be correct as she spent 6 weeks (or more) at #1 and didn’t leave the top 10 for 65 consecutive weeks. Her albums are typically more front loaded in the U.K. but in the US she remains at the top. I feel like she’s waiting for the end of the eras tour to update all her certifications as her whole catalogue has had a huge increase whilst the show has been on.

Pet Shop Boys missing number 1 is karma for dragging Taylor for having apparently no hits. I mean Love Story, Shake It Off, Blank Space, Anti Hero and Cruel Summer aren’t even up for debate as being big worldwide and U.K. legacy/long lasting hits. I Knew You Were Trouble, 22, Bad Blood, Style, Look What You Made Me Do and All Too Well are also up for debate for being big hits also (all obviously hits at the time but I mean legacy hits), suprisingly 22 I hear the most of these despite charting the lowest.

She’s not been a flop by any means but I think you’re right that this era is not looking as big as Future Nostalgia. Houdini was a hit, Training Season was a moderate hit and Ilusion currently isn’t looking like a moderate hit but if it’s stabilised a bit and if it bounces back next week with the album it could become a moderate hit also with multiple weeks in the top 10.

I don’t even think Kanye will get #1 in the US or here Can imagine Taylor’s third week sales will trump Kanyes first week in the US, imagine it could be: #1 Taylor (3rd week) #2 Kanye #3 Dua Whilst Dua I think in the U.K. will beat Kanyes first week and Taylor’s third week, could be close between all three though, but a guess (very unsure on this one): #1 Dua #2 Kanye #3 Taylor

Flopnight having just one week

It’ll be the biggest album of the year surely. Wouldn’t be suprised if the weekend’s highlights begin to do more each week by July time but it won’t be able to catch up from the strong first two weeks of sales imo. Guess it’s only fair after Midnights was robbed of the 2023 feat due to compilation/hits albums getting ‘sales’ through Spotify playlists rather than it actually being a new album / people are listening to the body of work

Crazy for three songs to be above 700K by different artists, all would be #1 in another week of this year

Very odd choice of a single, I think she released it purely because it had Post Malone on it. It was clear as day that Down, Bad and I Can Do It With A Broken Heart were the two more commercially successful sounding songs on the main album. Failing that The Black Dog on the anthology I love the album but fortnight would be in the bottom 5 of the 31 tracks

Taylor’s done about 40K on Mon, Tues then. Suspect she’ll do another 30K so she’ may just beat Adele’s record

At the rate it’s climbing it is looking to overtake tomorrow I reckon. Might be below on other streaming sites so reckon it’ll be close.

Will be interesting to see which other two tracks of Taylor’s make the chart based on these streams. Looking like So Long London, TTPD, Down Bad are all around the same streams on Spotify now; so the other streaming services will come into play. I Can Do It With A Broken Heart started off a lot lower (500K) but is pulling large numbers, will be close if it edges in also. If it doesn’t I’m sure it will chart in the top 5 next week, meaning she’d have 4 top 5 singles

Shocked with there being 2500 units between So Long London and TTPD? On Spotify TTPD was only ahead by 80K for the first day and has been behind everyday since, thought the gap would be less. It must have been ahead on Amazon and iTunes also

I think it’ll be close! I reckon another 28K from streaming is inevitable to bring it to 225K. It’s just whether she can sell another 35K physicals/downloads across the four days. I think it’ll be close and in the 250-275K range! Adele was 261K I think

Laughing at the silliness of 75% of the forum thinking it would sell less than Midnights on the prediction poll, she’s since had the hype of the biggest tour of all time; The Eras Tour, two of the biggest songs of the decade (Anti Hero, Cruel Summer) since that album release, how on earth were people thinking it would under perform midnight or sell less than 200k? I went really conservative of my 240K prediction because the forum had made me feel stupid for going with logic. Probably would have assumed quite a bit higher!

I’m expecting it to just scrape in by Thursday time. Reckon it’ll be: #1 Fortnite #2 Too Sweet #3 So long London #4 I Can Do It With A Broken Heart Just beating TTPD song on the final day

My prediction of 240K won’t be massive off it seems then, looking like if it’s done 183k with 2 days and all the pre orders I reckon it’ll land around 250-260?

I’m seeing Taylor as 1-3-4, definitely think Hozier will catch up on the other two tracks