BellyClarkson

Looks like Hozier is at his peak around 700-800 now and likely won’t get higher? Probably remain stable in these numbers for another week or two and start its decline? Although hard to tell still at this point. Interesting to see if Taylor does reach #1, can imagine her top song debuting around 1.1M dropping to about 800K the next day, so will have a lead, but very likely to get eaten up on the backend of the week after the second day. Imagine she will have higher digital sales to help, but likely only about 5K. Think it’ll be an interesting battle!

My prediction anyway is over 200K. But feel like my guess is anything between 175-300K, I wouldn’t be surprised if this pulls huge sales. Tempted to guess 240K as a mid figure/definite guess. I do think this will be her peak for her highest sales in the first week though. I think the fact the Era’s tour is coming up as well as such a successful Midnights and Cruel summer run will make this her biggest yet on initial sales.

The fact there are genuinely 10 people who think this wont debut at #1 is shocking to me, even (18) people who think this will sell less than 100k is mind blowing to me. Think just common sense alone should make those two obvious, but guess this is a true reflection of society and intelligence

I think Hozier still isn’t close to his streaming peak, whilst people continue to discover the song. Reckon he’ll be doing 1M a day when Taylor releases, so do think she will debut at #2. Can’t see her managing 1M daily, she will likely be ahead day 1 and day 2, and then drop below for the remaining 5 days. #1 #2 #3 is out of question for sure now, either #2, #3, #4 (most likely) or #1, #3 #4 I reckon

I don’t think the U.K. does a seperate artist list collating all their single/album sales of the decade like billboard does for an artist chart. I’d assume the top 5 would be Ed Sheeran, Adele, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, Drake/Bieber

In terms of U.K. songs most of the general public know in order I’d say: Shake It Off, Anti Hero, Blank Space, Love Story, Cruel Sunmer Cruel Summer still needs more time but I think has just entered the category that it’ll be one of her known renowned songs.

Greatest hits literally just mean people are streaming popular songs, they’re not even listening to the album. If Taylor Swift released a greatest hits at the end of the year with 25 of her most popular songs it’d probably be #1 for half the year. It’s clogging up the entire chart.

Why is Louis Tomlinsons album back in the top 20?

I reckon Taylor will stop a Beatles top 2 in the albums and wedge between them in #2

I suspect Taylor next year will be at least 3rd place, maybe even ahead of Rihanna

Now that cruel summer is back on SCR I wonder if it can end up landing in the top 10? Between 8-10? I think #11 is a guaranteed spot now and the lowest it’ll chart on the year end chart

I think you are right.. this was my first thought. It will get two plays per every album stream, and also as it was a latecomer many will go straight to the track now. It’s going to cheat its way into the top 3. I don’t think either version will even be in the top half but both combined will end up at #2/#3 of the album.. My guess now would be $l*t - #5 Bad Blood - #8 Style - #9 —————- Cheated - Say Don’t Go #10 (potentially blank space)

Welcome to New York is first purely for being track #1, same happened with Minenon speak Now as people will not finish the entire album or pause/restart, or will listen on the way to work/the shop and not make it through far enough as their journey isn’t going to be the full album length. Many of the others will overtake I imagine, which is what happened with Enchanted overtaking Mine later in the week when true streams/popularity can be seen over tracklisting order.

Nah I think it’ll be something like this: $l*t (vault) - #5 Style - #9 Say Don’t Go (vault) - #10

What’s the likelihood of Taylor going back to ACR due to increase in streams? Is it 25% extra? I’m guessing her Friday/Saturday streams will have achieved more than that with her releasing a live version and remix? I think the fact she’s #8 in the mid week compared to was it 16th at this point last week means she must be close to the threshold? Unless everyone’s sales are falling

This album can be compared to evermore by Taylor Swift which also had no real single/promotion. Evermore did do essentially half of folklore everywhere, and she came back with midnights. Don’t count Ed out next. PS I know evermore has done better worldwide but it was still a big decline from folklore in terms of commercial success

Interesting now. Physicals wise she will blow him out the water, but she will need to be ahead by at least 2x by the Monday update as his streaming numbers will be consistent and very high, whilst her pre orders will also be high but sales will plummet. I imagine drake will get around 40-50k

Did Griff manage to re enter the top 200 from Taylor promoting her song on her insta?

Burna boy and Dave, people always underestimate U.K. rap and the streaming power of Dave.

Looking at the trajectory looks like Karma is going to return to the charts as the third charting song, it seems to be remaining stable, don’t think it’ll be ACR for at least 3 weeks as I reckon it increased this week with the tour pre sale.

Hoping enchanted just peeps it to the post, the streams on Wednesday were 18k ahead so that should make it up if the algorithms works correctly for Thursday. Also imagine albeit extremely little impact enchanted was ahead ever so slightly on Wednesday for Amazon and apple, as wel as higher on iTunes. Will be very close but it’s been closing the gap so if it loses out it must be within 100 sales

I would say ‘Mine’ being 50k ahead of enchanted on release date when the data shows the vast majority streamed the album through in order throughout the day (showed by placement of songs) and then suddenly after release day ‘Enchanted’ being ahead Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and remaining a lot more stable (Mine dropping 20+ spots), shows that Enchanted is being chosen to listened to more. Release date numbers are not representative. Purely track listing order, if mine was ahead of enchanted now I’d concede.

No issue with Mine I like it, but it’s weighted higher in streaming as are all of the songs at the beginning of the track list for people who start the album and not finish it, I’d prefer it to be based off people choosing to listen to a song. That’s just a fact as well looking at the data of streaming for each big album release, it’s always weighted and the first song on the track list is always in the top 2 songs. Enchanted is the true higher streams

Mine is about 24k Spotify streams ahead with two days left (so far Enchanted only closing about 10k a day), Enchanted is also behind on Amazon. Will be very close

Looking like Mine will end up being the third charted song just solely because it’s the first song rather than its popularity, same happened with Lavendar Haze. Shame as clearly Enchanted is more popular and more chosen to be streamed (which is why it’s overtaken, but a 50k lead on Spotify on the first day doesn’t seem to be looking to be caught)