vidcapper

New update Seats where the 3rd placed party could win on a swing of <10% Seat Total Win Maj % 2nd % 3rd Lanark and Hamilton East 50470 SNP 266 0.53 Con 0.71 Lab East Lothian 55878 Lab 3083 5.52 SNP 6.47 Con Edinburgh North and Leith 56552 SNP 1625 2.87 Lab 6.82 Con Linlithgow and Falkirk East 56094 SNP 2919 5.20 Lab 7.27 Con Fife North East 41822 SNP 2 0.00 LD 8.74 Con Edinburgh South West 49390 SNP 1097 2.22 Con 8.83 Lab Ceredigion 39767 PC 104 0.26 LD 9.07 Lab Paisley and Renfrewshire North 46615 SNP 2613 5.61 Lab 9.90 Con Dunfermline and Fife West 51010 SNP 844 1.65 Lab 10.84 Con Midlothian 45273 Lab 885 1.95 SNP 10.90 Con Ayrshire Central 45087 SNP 1267 2.81 Con 11.11 Lab Ayrshire North and Arran 47433 SNP 3633 7.66 Con 11.41 Lab Southport 47956 Con 2914 6.08 Lab 12.26 LD Edinburgh West 52795 LD 2988 5.66 SNP 12.40 Con Falkirk 53809 SNP 4923 9.15 Lab 12.76 Con Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 41029 PC 3908 9.52 Lab 13.04 Con Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 30901 LD 2044 6.61 SNP 13.17 Con Renfrewshire East 53738 Con 4712 8.77 SNP 13.31 Lab East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 54102 SNP 3866 7.15 Lab 13.53 Con Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath 46193 Lab 259 0.56 SNP 13.54 Con Airdrie and Shotts 38002 SNP 195 0.51 Lab 14.42 Con Ynys Mon 37367 Lab 5259 14.07 Con 14.47 PC Sheffield Hallam 57020 Lab 2125 3.73 LD 14.59 Con Stirling 49356 Con 148 0.30 SNP 14.97 Lab Kilmarnock and Loudoun 46509 SNP 6269 13.48 Lab 15.67 Con Livingston 52505 SNP 3878 7.39 Lab 15.69 Con Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock 46222 Con 2774 6.00 SNP 16.28 Lab Dundee East 42928 SNP 6645 15.48 Con 16.81 Lab Inverclyde 39093 SNP 384 0.98 Lab 17.01 Con Argyll and Bute 48069 SNP 1328 2.76 Con 17.81 LD Rutherglen and Hamilton West 50872 Lab 265 0.52 SNP 18.01 Con Motherwell and Wishaw 41926 SNP 318 0.76 Lab 18.27 Con Aberdeen North 36757 SNP 4139 11.26 Lab 18.58 Con Ross, Skye and Lochaber 38454 SNP 5919 15.39 Con 19.34 Lab Thurrock 50325 Con 345 0.69 Lab 19.41 UKIP Glasgow East 36166 SNP 75 0.21 Lab 19.93 Con Regards,

You expect them to regain most of what they lost in 2015, then? Even so, I think 40-45 seats would still be beyond the LD's.

I have no doubt there'll be a swing to the LD's, but 25% would be almost unprecedented outside of a by-election. I think the SNP may get 45-50 seats, but I cannot imagine the LD's getting 45-50 themselves.

A relatively small SNP surge could see JS defeated anyway... :thinking:

Because that's not as good a soundbite? :teresa:

So? The necessary 25% swing is hardly likely, especially as the 2nd placed Tories voters are unlikely to cooperate to the extent needed. Plus, Labour always prevailed, even when the result was close.

Wouldn't work - both parties needed to cooperate for the election to happen.

Labour can't know the weather 6 weeks ahead, so I'm puzzled as to what you think they could have done? :unsure:

But they were a distant 3rd last time, so it will surely be difficult to persuade Labour supporters to vote tactically.

A *huge* majority in fact... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islington_Sou...t_constituency)

Updated

The only trend that seems to be emerging so far, is that both main parties are taking back support from the others in about equal numbers.

The 'PR' referendum was a travesty, since they system they chose to offer wasn't remotely proportional. :angry:

Labour might be the least worst option, and I suppose I *could* safely vote for them, given they have no chance in hell here... :P https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tewkesbury_(U...t_constituency) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheltenham_(U...t_constituency)

On a side issue, if the Brexit Party are indeed not standing against Tories, I am now f*cked, as I appear to have no-one left to vote for. :o

How can they be - UKIP still exist as a separate entity from the Brexit Party.

Any specific views in mind?

Only multi-lateral disarmament can work though - while rogue states like North Korea have them, unilateral disarmament is not safe!

OK then, my answer is yes, with the proviso that their views should be judged in the context of when their opinions were formed, rather than the present day.

But surely TBP votes are far more like to be mostly Tory, than UKIP ones were? Even the new Speakers constituency? Surely those stats referred to UKIP, and if so, can't necessarily be projected onto TBP. :unsure:

You want me to say yes, don't you?

I disagree with removing 'hateful and bad faith voices', not because I agree with their often abhorrent opinions, but because it's better that they reveal themselves rather be suppressed, which increases their feelings of persecution, and leading them to believe that violent means is the only way to make themselves heard. Also, I share the view, often misattributed to Voltaire, that 'I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.'

If you don't trust the electorate, or the politicians, then who *would* you trust to run the country? :unsure: BTW, what 'extreme views' do you claim I hold? :unsure: To me, 'extreme' means that only 1-2% of people subscribe to those views, e.g. groups like BNP, Britain First, etc. It therefore surely can't be on Brexit, as extreme is the opposite of mainstream, so 50%+ cannot by definition be 'extreme'.

None of which could apply to MM, of course... :teresa:

That's a typical hard-leftist response - 'I don't want to hear views opposing my own, so lets censor them, and pretend they don't exist'. :nono: