vidcapper

I'm not as sceptical about the polls as MM :lol: but I don't think there's any chance of that big a majority. Mind you, either party having a working majority would at least spare us from another GE until 2024... :dance:

Doesn't Eastbourne have a lot of (usually-Brexit-supporting) older people though?

Would a system of voters choosing a parties candidates work here? At present it's often just a few out-of-touch local party members who make the choice. :(

He's in denial of what they keep saying? AFAIK it is very much punter-driven. If someone puts £1000 on a 100-1 shot, they'll then cut the odds dramatically, even though the likelihood of the outcome hasn't actually changed. That's what I thought too - see above.

That doesn't necessarily mean they are any better at it, though. :unsure: Presumably people bet based on opinion polls, so it's rather circular...

Updated list of Tory & Labour targets 5-10% swing... Seat Win Maj % 2nd Lewes Con 5508 10.16 LD Gloucester Con 5520 10.21 Lab Nuneaton Con 4739 10.29 Lab Colchester Con 5677 10.60 Lab Aberdeen South Con 4752 10.68 SNP St Albans Con 6109 10.72 LD Uxbridge and Ruislip South Con 5034 10.78 Lab Wimbledon Con 5622 10.91 Lab Dumfries and Galloway Con 5643 10.94 SNP Plymouth Moor View Con 5019 11.05 Lab Shrewsbury and Atcham Con 6627 11.39 Lab Rochford and Southend East Con 5548 11.74 Lab Halesowen and Rowley Regis Con 5253 11.84 Lab Altrincham and Sale West Con 6426 12.17 Lab Wycombe Con 6578 12.30 Lab Dover Con 6437 12.39 Lab Wells Con 7582 12.46 LD Hazel Grove Con 5514 12.49 LD Thanet South Con 6387 12.84 Lab Devon East Con 7758 12.85 Ind South Ribble Con 7421 13.53 Lab Rushcliffe Con 8010 13.74 Lab Cornwall North Con 7200 14.13 LD Welwyn Hatfield Con 7369 14.26 Lab York Outer Con 8289 14.43 Lab Stafford Con 7729 14.89 Lab Swindon North Con 8335 15.18 Lab Kingswood Con 7500 15.39 Lab Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Con 7950 15.40 SNP Harlow Con 7031 15.68 Lab Macclesfield Con 8608 15.85 Lab Rugby Con 8212 16.00 Lab Stourbridge Con 7654 16.24 Lab Redditch Con 7363 16.29 Lab Bournemouth East Con 7937 16.33 Lab Elmet and Rothwell Con 9805 16.47 Lab Monmouth Con 8206 16.50 Lab Basingstoke Con 9466 16.92 Lab Bournemouth West Con 7711 17.33 Lab Winchester Con 9999 17.49 LD Waveney Con 9215 17.49 Lab Cannock Chase Con 8391 17.53 Lab Warwickshire North Con 8510 18.04 Lab Great Yarmouth Con 7973 18.06 Lab Hemel Hempstead Con 9445 18.07 Lab Amber Valley Con 8300 18.12 Lab Rochester and Strood Con 9850 18.32 Lab Forest of Dean Con 9502 18.36 Lab Croydon South Con 11406 18.62 Lab Somerset North East Con 10235 18.94 Lab Gravesham Con 9347 19.08 Lab Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Con 9441 19.28 SNP Gillingham and Rainham Con 9430 19.30 Lab Wrekin, The Con 9564 19.31 Lab Chelsea and Fulham Con 8188 19.44 Lab Brecon and Radnorshire Con 8038 19.45 LD Hexham Con 9236 19.98 Lab Bexleyheath and Crayford Con 9073 20.08 Lab Dagenham and Rainham Lab 4652 10.15 Con Birmingham Northfield Lab 4667 10.52 Con Delyn Lab 4240 10.76 Con Bridgend Lab 4700 10.87 Con Halifax Lab 5376 11.14 Con Don Valley Lab 5169 11.24 Con Bolsover Lab 5288 11.37 Con Clwyd South Lab 4356 11.62 Con Alyn and Deeside Lab 5235 11.70 Con Bury South Lab 5965 11.70 Con Stoke-on-Trent Central Lab 3897 11.76 Con Wirral West Lab 5365 12.21 Con West Bromwich West Lab 4460 12.36 Con Wolverhampton North East Lab 4587 12.56 Con Hyndburn Lab 5815 12.86 Con Newport West Lab 5658 13.03 Con Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Lab 6807 13.29 Con Chorley Lab 7512 13.50 Con Eltham Lab 6296 13.64 Con Ynys Mon Lab 5259 14.07 Con Lancaster and Fleetwood Lab 6661 14.48 Con Sedgefield Lab 6059 14.57 Con Heywood and Middleton Lab 7617 15.28 Con Burnley Lab 6353 15.77 Con Birmingham Edgbaston Lab 6917 15.86 Con Chester, City of Lab 9176 16.26 Con Bradford South Lab 6700 16.32 Con Batley and Spen Lab 8961 16.66 Con Coventry South Lab 7947 16.91 Con Coventry North West Lab 8580 17.21 Con Oldham East and Saddleworth Lab 8182 17.39 Con Ilford North Lab 9639 18.21 Con Hartlepool Lab 7650 18.29 Con Durham North West Lab 8792 18.35 Con Worsley and Eccles South Lab 8379 18.36 Con Wirral South Lab 8323 18.42 Con Blyth Valley Lab 7915 18.63 Con Stalybridge and Hyde Lab 8084 19.04 Con Birmingham Erdington Lab 7285 19.57 Con West Bromwich East Lab 7713 19.73 Con Warrington North Lab 9582 19.75 Con Brentford and Isleworth Lab 12182 19.77 Con Regards,

Can't remember exactly - too long ago. :) Probably some time in 1976.

You mean Campaign period? :unsure: Feels like we've already been there for a month - 5 more weeks is going to be purgatory! :P

Do they have any better record than the pollsters, though?

So they're not as Tory-biased as MM claims...

On a separate note - do you think that albums that rely mostly on streaming for their chart position, will be driven down by increased physical/download sales over the Xmas period?

MM would have probably added that spare 10% onto Labour... :heehee:

Here are the actual figures : Sky News/YouGov voting intention puts the Tories on 36%, Labour on 25%, Lib Dems on 17%, Brexit Party on 11%, Greens on 5% and SNP 4%, with Plaid Cymru on 1%. OK, they're still 1% short, but that's better than 10% over... :rolleyes: https://news.sky.com/story/general-election...1-poll-11855764

Well, *you* didn't read my smiley... :P But print media, unlike TV, doesn't have to be unbiased in their coverage. There's no way to stop newspapers from publishing articles with a particular slant - that being the case, just ignore the articles you don't like, like everyone else does. Even if they're 'fake news' all you can do is call them out on it, you can't stop them publishing it. And BTW, neither of my parents are still alive. ****************************** Also I seriously doubt Corbyn is the *most* smeared in history - Trump is at least as much a target for allegations, both fake and real. and even the real ones are spun as much as possible..

Voters will call BS on that, as Labour will tell them it *is* feasible.

So are you saying that 25% of smears are still true? :teresa:

I agree the some Tories aren't keen on the NHS, but I find it hard to believe that they'd ever dare try to abolish it - that would give Labour a cast iron landslide in the following GE!

That adds up to 110% :mellow:

There's only one way to find out whether the polls are accurate or not - wait until Dec 13th...

Depends how you define 'didn't work' - they're still comfortably ahead in the polls...

From context, I assume he's a Tory...

Can do, but the list will need to be rather longer to be useful, and the formatting dodgy... Seat Win Maj % 2nd Place Tory targets Newcastle-under-Lyme Lab 30 0.07 Con Crewe and Nantwich Lab 48 0.09 Con Canterbury Lab 187 0.33 Con Barrow and Furness Lab 209 0.44 Con Keighley Lab 239 0.46 Con Lanark and Hamilton East SNP 266 0.53 Con Ashfield Lab 441 0.88 Con Stroud Lab 687 1.08 Con Bishop Auckland Lab 502 1.16 Con Peterborough Lab 607 1.27 Con Oxford West and Abingdon LD 816 1.36 Con Westmorland and Lonsdale LD 777 1.50 Con Colne Valley Lab 915 1.51 Con Bedford Lab 789 1.63 Con Ipswich Lab 836 1.63 Con Stockton South Lab 888 1.65 Con Edinburgh South West SNP 1097 2.22 Con Warwick and Leamington Lab 1206 2.23 Con Penistone and Stocksbridge Lab 1322 2.66 Con Carshalton and Wallington LD 1369 2.70 Con Using MM's fantasy election method, Con were just about 1050 votes from an overall majority in 2017... :rolleyes: Lab targets Southampton Itchen Con 31 0.07 Lab Glasgow South West SNP 60 0.17 Lab Glasgow East SNP 75 0.21 Lab Arfon PC 92 0.33 Lab Airdrie and Shotts SNP 195 0.51 Lab Pudsey Con 331 0.61 Lab Hastings and Rye Con 346 0.63 Lab Chipping Barnet Con 353 0.64 Lab Thurrock Con 345 0.69 Lab Preseli Pembrokeshire Con 314 0.74 Lab Motherwell and Wishaw SNP 318 0.76 Lab Inverclyde SNP 384 0.98 Lab Calder Valley Con 609 1.05 Lab Norwich North Con 507 1.10 Lab Broxtowe Con 863 1.55 Lab Stoke-on-Trent South Con 663 1.59 Lab Telford Con 720 1.61 Lab Dunfermline and Fife West SNP 844 1.65 Lab Bolton West Con 936 1.83 Lab Aberconwy Con 635 1.98 Lab LD targets Fife North East SNP 2 0.00 LD Richmond Park Con 45 0.07 LD Ceredigion PC 104 0.26 LD St Ives Con 312 0.61 LD Sheffield Hallam Lab 2125 3.73 LD Cheltenham Con 2569 4.51 LD Devon North Con 4332 7.78 LD Cheadle Con 4507 8.26 LD Leeds North West Lab 4224 9.13 LD Lewes Con 5508 10.16 LD St Albans Con 6109 10.72 LD Wells Con 7582 12.46 LD Hazel Grove Con 5514 12.49 LD Cornwall North Con 7200 14.13 LD Winchester Con 9999 17.49 LD Brecon and Radnorshire Con 8038 19.45 LD Bermondsey and Old Southwark Lab 12972 22.17 LD Cambridge Lab 12661 22.64 LD Thornbury and Yate Con 12071 23.81 LD Sutton and Cheam Con 12698 24.43 LD

I just *told you* what I think they'll use.

I have no doubt about that! :P

FYI... Seats that would be lost on <5% swing : Con 67 seats Lab 53 seats SNP 29 seats LD 8 seats Seats that could be won on a 5% swing : Con 59 seats Lab 78 SNP 16 LD 9 I can do the calculation for a 10% swing too, if anyone is interested?