David

I had them down as getting five points off us...I know it could well be more, but with the inevitable Ireland-Turkey-Greece top three and songs like Denmark and Germany likely to appeal to UK viewers, I don't personally think they'll get any more. :( Same here, but like Rich said above, it really doesn't feel like a winner at all! Even 'Believe' felt more like a winner than this! :lol:

Oh god...these results have come out ridiculously low! They look rather like a dodgy "it'll never happen" ESC Simulator set of results! Anyway, here's what I got, after spending the best part of two hours (!!!) going through recent voting patterns, position in the running order, realistic chances of winning, rehearsals and whatever else relevant! Armenia 219Germany 211Greece 200Turkey 167Romania 150Azerbaijan 142Denmark 136Israel 127Belgium 101Ireland 98Russia 97Serbia 86Norway 80Ukraine 76Georgia 59Iceland 58Bosnia-Herzegovina 46Albania 43Moldova 37Cyprus 35Spain 24Belarus 22United Kingdom 19Portugal 16France 13 And now some points to consider... Any other year I would have Armenia as a guaranteed 4th/5th finisher ala Sirusho, Aysel, that 'Shake It Up Sekerim' guy, Sakis in 2004 etc., but this year with no clear leader, and the favourites - Azerbaijan - having an awful rehearsal/semi final and performing first, I can see the typical eastern Eurovision song getting the win. Just.Germany are the country I've put second and I can see them getting A LOT of sixes, sevens and eights. It's a great song, but I can't see people going out in their droves to vote for it, and I fear this may lead to the former USSR state 'bloc voting' returning.I never really gave Greece much thought and just presumed they'd end up low top ten again, but now that it's been placed between the United Kingdom and Ireland, I see it as quite a frontrunner. I can't see it actually winning, but definitely worrying a few of us along the way tomorrow night, and settling in third!Turkey are another country like Russia, and they will benefit from the Turkish diaspora around Europe heavily this year - once again I'm putting this down to the likeliness of the voting being so widespread. It's a good song, and I can see it finishing a tad higher than 'Deli' did in 2008.Romania and Denmark are two countries with decent songs, but are they enough to stand out? I could well have underestimated Romania, as indeed could the bookmakers, but I see it scrapping along with a lot of fours and fives with the occasional high score from countries like Spain and Moldova. Denmark would be my bet for the win if they didn't look so barren on stage and as if they'd rather be somewhere else. As it is, I'll go with seventh for them.I've never actually tipped Azerbaijan or Israel for the win, and always thought their odds, particularly Israel's, were too low, however after the semi final, I definitely don't think either will be troubling the top of the leaderboard. The fact Azerbaijan are opening the show gives me less faith in the song, and I'm predicting it will finish just outside the top five. Israel, like Romania, will plod along all night with average scores, but without having the benefit of kind neighbours and diaspora like the Moldavians and Spanish...Which leads me onto Russia. 97 points for that piece of drivel is 97 too many in my opinion, but like I said in the above comment, I can really see the USSR bloc returning in force this time, and Russia will of course be the country that gains most from this. Last year we saw their constant 12 pointer domination disappear, however this year I think we could see some of those return, along with a lot of eights and tens.I think Belgium and Ireland will make the top ten - just - at the expense of Russia. They should get a reasonably wide spread set of results, but their performing positions and the countries singing around them could hinder their chances of going top five. I've already talked about the Russian abomination, and don't intend to speak of Nalitch anymore!Serbia were a tricky one. On the one hand they have a catchy tune, but on the other...it is rather naff. They'll probably get a few "novelty" votes and score highly from the Balkan countries, but I can't see them quite going top ten.Norway's performing slot and the overkill of ballads will ensure we stay away from Oslo next year too...Ukraine, Georgia and Iceland will benefit mostly from neighbourly votes I think, and I can't see any of them troubling the upper reaches. If Georgia put in a decent performance again they could maybe do better, and if Iceland were closing the show again I think they'd manage it too.Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania are your trademark inevitable flops in the final that are only going to score from the neighbouring countries, and I can't see either passing 50 points.Moldova are definitely the Finland of last year, however with some dire songs in the final, they should just about scrape the top 20.I think Cyprus and Belarus are both going to suffer and be labelled merely an inferior version of what is already in the final. Belgium come just before Cyprus, and is far superior, and there are about five ballads that are better than 'Butterflies'. Belarus will pick up a few ex-USSR votes, and Cyprus will get the inevitable 12 from Greece, but apart from that, I can't see either sending too many shockwaves across Europe.Spain's unique effort this year will merely be forgotten I fear, which is a shame as I do quite like the song. It will remain since 2004 that the Spanish went top ten though.And now onto the bottom three... I might actually be being a little optimistic about predicting Josh Dubovie and the United Kingdom at 23rd, as that French song could easily take off tomorrow night, and Portugal's ballad and good singing position could benefit them strongly, however that is what I've gone for, so I'll stick by it. Comment and let me know what you think! x x x

Political voting exists in a small way imo - Greece and Cyprus' exchange of 12 points, Cyprus not voting for Turkey etc, but I don't think there is much more myself. Azerbaijan not voting for Armenia last year was arguably politically motivated, but we've no proof of that. Most of the Russian votes from the smaller USSR countries has nothing to do with politics though - purely because the people there are probably partly Russian! My mum wanted to vote for Ireland last night because she's half Irish - this is exactly the same principle as what the Baltic/Balkan countries do and no one considers that as "political" at all.

Yeah I can see Cyprus coming bottom five for sure! Can see Georgia repeating their 2007/8 results tbh and coming mid-table. Not a bad song, but not memorable enough to get into triple figures tbh. I don't think it's as good as Sopho or their disqualified entry last year myself. I'll do a full final prediction list later eeeeek!

Hardly anyone in the UK watches the semi finals or hears the songs before the final, and I'm pretty sure that for most of the voters this is the same case. I'd be fairly sure to predict that only about 5% of the viewing public will have heard all of the songs before the final - aside from those that have watched the semi final. If they released figures on when people voted, the amount of votes will increase dramatically during the final recap.

I haven't done this for ages, but will attempt to do so now... And this is based on the performances I have seen so far as well, rather than just the studio versions, as my personal chart is... Excellent: 9 or 10 out of ten Iceland : Hera Bjork - Je Ne Sais Quoi Moldova : SunStroke Project & Olia Tira - Run Away Great: 7 or 8 out of ten Ireland : Niamh Kavanagh - It's For You Denmark : Chanee & N'evergreen - In A Moment Like This Romania : Paula Seling & Ovi - Playing With Fire Germany : Lena Meyer-Landrut - Satellite Albania : Juliana Pasha - It's All About You Belgium : Tom Dice - Me And My Guitar Armenia : Eva Rivas - Apricot Stone Norway : Didrik Solli-Tangen - My Heart Is Yours Good: 5 or 6 out of ten Azerbaijan : Safura - Drip Drop Ukraine : Alyosha - Sweet People Greece : Giorgos Alkaios & Friends - OPA Spain : Daniel Diges - Algo Pequenito Turkey : maNga - We Could Be The Same Serbia : Milan Stankovic - Ovo Je Balkan Average: 3 or 4 out of ten Israel : Harel Skaat - Milim United Kingdom : Josh Dubovie - That Sounds Good To Me Belarus : 3+2 - Butterflies Georgia : Sofia Nizharadze - Shine Portugal : Filipa Azevedo - Há Dias Assim Cyprus : Jon Lilygreen & The Islanders - Life Looks Better In Spring Bosnia-Herzegovina : Vukasin Brajic - Thunder And Lightning France : Jessy Matador - Allez Olla Olé Eeeeek: 1 or 2 out of ten Russia : Peter Nalitch & Friends - Lost And Forgotten Of course were I going on studio versions alone, Azerbaijan and Denmark would more than likely be higher.

Croatia twice and Ireland once. Still in shock over Croatia not qualifying...

Oh I meant Turkey in the top seven. :hithead:

I'm seriously considering putting one on Greece tbh...

Currently I'm thinking the top four will include: Armenia Denmark Germany Greece Next three: Azerbaijan Romania Turkey But I'll do my final predictions tomorrow...

Just looking now...this is a good draw for Greece. :snif: A very good draw for them in fact!

1. Azerbaijan 2. Spain 3. Norway 4. Moldova 5. Cyprus 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina 7. Belgium 8. Serbia 9. Belarus 10. Ireland 11. Greece 12. United Kingdom 13. Georgia 14. Turkey 15. Albania 16. Iceland 17. Ukraine 18. France 19. Romania 20. Russia 21. Armenia 22. Germany 23. Portugal 24. Israel 25. Denmark

1. Azerbaijan 2. Spain 3. Norway 4. Moldova 5. Cyprus 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina 7. Belgium 8. Serbia 9. Belarus 10. Ireland 11. Greece 12. United Kingdom 13. Georgia 14. Turkey 15. Albania 16. Iceland 17. Ukraine 18. France 19. Romania 20. Russia 21. 22. Germany 23. Portugal 24. Israel 25.

Azerbaijan are the openers!!! This is officially wide open! :cheer:

1. Azerbaijan 2. Spain 3. Norway 4. Moldova 5. Cyprus 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina 7. Belgium 8. Serbia 9. Belarus 10. Ireland 11. Greece 12. United Kingdom 13. Georgia 14. Turkey 15. Albania 16. Iceland 17. Ukraine 18. France 19. 20. Russia 21. 22. Germany 23. Portugal 24. Israel 25.

Cyprus drawing #5 hmm...I really hope the Azeris get lumbered with #1. :heehee: Denmark to close would be good too.

1. 2. Spain 3. Norway 4. Moldova 5. Cyprus 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina 7. Belgium 8. Serbia 9. Belarus 10. Ireland 11. Greece 12. United Kingdom 13. Georgia 14. Turkey 15. Albania 16. Iceland 17. Ukraine 18. France 19. 20. Russia 21. 22. Germany 23. Portugal 24. Israel 25.

Good that they're just before Greece...but I bet Azerbaijan get the last one or #19 now! :arrr:

1. 2. Spain 3. Norway 4. Moldova 5. 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina 7. Belgium 8. Serbia 9. Belarus 10. Ireland 11. Greece 12. United Kingdom 13. Georgia 14. Turkey 15. Albania 16. Iceland 17. Ukraine 18. France 19. 20. Russia 21. 22. Germany 23. Portugal 24. Israel 25.

Ooh I hope Ireland get a slot near the end. :(

1. 2. Spain 3. Norway 4. Moldova 5. 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina 7. Belgium 8. Serbia 9. Belarus 10. 11. Greece 12. United Kingdom 13. Georgia 14. Turkey 15. Albania 16. Iceland 17. Ukraine 18. France 19. 20. Russia 21. 22. Germany 23. Portugal 24. Israel 25.

Denmark for #25 would be good! All near the beginning or the end left though now...I hope Azerbaijan get a slot near the start myself.

1. 2. Spain 3. Norway 4. Moldova 5. 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina 7. Belgium 8. Serbia 9. Belarus 10. 11. Greece 12. United Kingdom 13. Georgia 14. Turkey 15. Albania 16. Iceland 17. Ukraine 18. France 19. 20. Russia 21. 22. Germany 23. Portugal 24. 25.

Would've been good if a ballad had got #17! Ahhh well!

Ukraine are next up... 1. 2. Spain 3. Norway 4. Moldova 5. 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina 7. Belgium 8. Serbia 9. Belarus 10. 11. Greece 12. United Kingdom 13. Georgia 14. 15. Albania 16. Iceland 17. Ukraine 18. France 19. 20. Russia 21. 22. Germany 23. Portugal 24. 25.