Danny

Surely, then, the onus should be on those companies to actually train British workers themselves so that they have the skillset for those jobs? That's what they always used to do before the 1980s.

My main prediction is that Brexit support will have increased substantially by the end of the year (roughly 60-40 to Leave in any polls, perhaps). Once the negotiations start, either the EU will give into British demands and basically pave the way for a smooth Brexit, in which case many Remain voters who didn't really care about the EU but were just worried about the fallout will stop believing that there's anything to worry about; or, if the EU plays hardball, and is perceived to be trying to not give Britain a good deal out of spite, then a lot of Remain voters will probably think "screw you then, we don't want to stay with you if you're going to be unreasonable anyway".

The benefits cap is one thing; that sometimes means big families have to move to a smaller house, which is stupid (and also counterproductive since it causes more disruption to the kids in that family and thus makes them even less likely to settle down at school and eventually become a "normal citizen"), but it's not a catastrophe. It's quite another thing to back sanctions which stop people's benefits altogether and give them NOTHING to live on, and to support slashing back the safety nets and public services that a lot of people on the breadline rely on. By not standing up against all that in 2010-15 and pressuring (in parliamentary votes and by not trying to change public opinion), Labour caused really misery for thousands. Now maybe you see why so many Labour members, myself included, felt so strongly about the ridiculous lengths some Labour MPs were taking the "electability is more important than principles" mantra to (leaving aside that they don't even have a ghost of a clue how to win elections in any case). Even if this DOES happen, I really don't think that's going to mean people want to rejoin the EU. They will quite possibly blame May and the government for "not doing what we told you" and might well be open to other parties promising to "negotiate a better Brexit deal", but for Jo(e) Public to actually say s/he doesn't want to leave the EU would be for him.her to admit to themselves they got the decision in the referendum wrong -- and, to the state the obvious, very few humanbeings like to willingly admit they were wrong about something. It's not even like Iraq, where people who were vaguely in favour of it in 2003 were later able to convince themselves that they were never really in favour of it, and thus avoid thinking "I got it wrong".

I'm trying (and failing) not to be petty here, but it's really hard not to see that your only problem is that suddenly it's YOUR principles and YOUR career prospects that are suddenly under threat, whereas a couple of years ago, you were happy to throw the working-class and welfare claimants under a bus all for the sake of Labour's supposed "electability". Suddenly the mantra of "there's no point in purity if you can't get elected" has disappeared.

Colour me sceptical. If this is based on that YouGov poll which said an "anti-Brexit Lib Dems" would beat a "pro-Brexit Labour" then that seems to me a prime example of a leading question. Similar to those Ashcroft polls before the 2015 election which asked people to "think specifically about your own constituency" which showed way too optimistic results for the Lib Dems -- in the event, when a lot of people went into the polling booths, they WEREN'T solely thinking about their own constituencies (they were thinking about what they wanted from the national government too), just as in 2020 people WON'T be thinking only about Brexit and nothing else when they go into the polling booth, as that YouGov question implies.

Maybe the average voter in Islington and Hackney is a star-struck Corbyn groupie, but that doesn't change the fact that, IMO, since they like him / his general policy agenda so much, they are off limits to the Lib Dems, no matter how much they might agree with the LDs on Europe.

Well done to the Lib Dems for getting that race-baiting idiot out, but I really doubt this is going to be the start of a trend. Richmond Park has to rank as one of the top "Orange Book" seats in the country: one of the only seats where people are economically-Tory and love low taxes and big businesses and don't care about public services, yet also are diehard social liberals who put staying in the EU as one of their top priorities. Most economic-Tories outside of London actually voted for Brexit or else even if they voted Remain don't feel that strongly about it, whereas most people who DO feel strongly about Europe are often fully-fledged Corbynistas when it comes to economic matters. I don't see that the Lib Dems are very attractive to either group.

Ha, just as I suggested to you (a bit sarcastically) a while ago. :kink: Is it because of Brexit, or Corbyn?

That seems like a good way to make women (who are for obvious reasons usually a weak spot in the far Right's support) a lot more sympathetic to her.

It's not so much that the polls are inaccurate at measuring opinion at that very moment (you guys are right that the polls JUST BEFORE the US election and the EU referendum were not too far off the mark), but they are absolutely terrible at predicting what opinion is going to look like months before an election/referendum. Again, even if the eve-of-election polls were alright for Trump and for Brexit, if you look around 6 months before they were predicting landslide defeats for both, and the same with the 2014 Scottish referendum. What happens time and time again right now is, when there's an anti-establishment option on the ballot, they gain more and more momentum when the proper campaigns start and when people's desperation for "change" starts growing. Which is why the French polls right now arent much comfort.

It is rare for a party to win 3 presidential elections in a row, but it's not as rare as getting an opponent who runs such a dire campaign in the final weeks as Trump did, yet Hillary still flunked the dream opportunity. You're right that it's hard to win as a continuity candidate when people are so pissed off with the status quo, but that's precisely why it was obvious ages ago that Hillary was a terrible choice of candidate - yet people like Qassandra were still insisting throughout the primaries that she was a better choice than anyone else the Democrats had, rather than a candidate who actually promised a change (Sanders/Warren), or, at the very least, a continuity candidate with some basic political skills who could win votes on personality alone (Biden, Obama himself if he'd been allowed -- remember that around 10% of Trump voters told exit pollsters that they still liked Obama). Basically everything from this article back in February came to pass: http://static.currentaffairs.org/2016/02/u...rump-presidency

Again, Clinton did not get as harsh treatment as Obama got, with the various taunts that he was a terrorist, a secret Muslim, a Nazi, not born in America, etc. Where Clinton had the e-mail scandal blown out of proportion by the Republicans, Obama had the Republicans constantly prattling on about his pastor and how he once had coffee with Bill Ayers. Where Clinton had her "basket of deplorables" comment taken out of context, Obama was clobbered over the head with "bitter whites clinging to guns" comments and over the lie about Michelle Obama going on a rant about "whities". Where Clinton had "lock her up" shouted at her, Obama had "kill him!" shouted at Republican rallies and mainstream news commentators (after "accidentally" referring to him as "Osama"). The point being that there's nothing new about vitrolic opposition being thrown, and it's going to continue no matter what. But a good politician like Obama, with a good inspiring message, can get people to ignore the diatribes, including many of the "racist" white voters who switched from Obama in 2008/12 to Trump last week. Like it or not, Clinton just wasn't in his league, not to mention the dire "centrist" message and policies which were never going to be strong enough to even get people to pay attention to her. Did Bernie ever actually say he would raise taxes by 10% for low-income people? (Serious question.)

Just like Labour here, left-wing parties can't just expect to bank on white working-class votes if they're not going to bother offering them anything that would improve their economic prospects. And it can't be said that this is just racism, since these are states which voted for a black President just 4 years ago (indeed, if the exit polls are in any way reliable - obviously a big if - a significant chunk of Trump voters are people who say they STILL approve of Obama, more than 10% of Trump voters in a lot of states).

Wisconsin now being called for Trump by some networks - and that would be the Election.

California will add a massive tranche to Clinton's popular vote (though that doesn't help her at all with the electoral college).

Michigan is looking a TOUCH more positive for Clinton right now, although it's still iffy in 3 other states.

Though bless the CNN data analyst still trying to throw any crumbs of comfort. "They still haven't counted the votes of a man and his dog in this Florida county, could still be swung to Clinton!!"

Pennsylvania is also looking VERY shaky for Clinton - only a modest lead even after most of Philadelphia has come in.

Trump is now the favourite to win with Betfair (for whatever that's worth). Most likely scenario right now is Clinton winning the popular vote by 1-2%, but Trump squeezing home on the Electoral College with slim leads across the swing states.

Trump looks like he's in with a chance in Minnesota (which has gone Democrat ever since 1976).

Like with Brexit, Clinton is coming in just a couple of % lower than where she needed to be, pretty much everywhere.

Michigan tied in CNN exit poll - and the polls have been underestimating Trump in states so far...

Hold on, this is starting to look a bit tenser. Trump overperforming the exit polls in Pennsylvania and Virginia so far....

CNN livestream here http://www.playlivenewz.com/2010/08/watch-cnn-news-live/ They're excellent, they actually deal with the data that they have, rather than just having "pundits" rehashing the election campaign with all their same arguments.

Exit polls give Clinton small leads in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Starting to look like she's home and dry now.