Danny

The Tories are probably on for 20+ gains from the Lib Dems IMO, and I could see them picking up a handful of Labour seats in the Midlands or somewhere if Labour leak some votes to UKIP. It's touch and go if the Tories get a majority but I wouldn't be totally shocked to see them do it.

The ballot paper also doesn't tell you specifically to "think about your constituency", after previously asking who you'd generally vote for (thus, arguably, encouraging a different answer for the second question). With the exception of MPs who were first elected in 2010, the incumbency effects will already be baked into the 2010 results (which is why Eastbourne and/or Cambridge might be saved on smallish swings). Otherwise, there's no reason at all to think the swing in their seats will be lower than the national average, because the strong reputations of individual MPs will ALREADY be reflected in their starting points. In 2010 itself, even LibDem seats generally swung with the national trend apart from first-time incumbents.

I still don't think the "thinking about your constituency specifically" question is going to be accurate. Obviously Lib Dem MPs are very good at being "champions locally" and getting dog mess cleared off the roads and whathaveyou, and some people will be voting for them on that basis, but there's no way that EVERYONE is going to be thinking first and foremost about who they think is best for the constituency rather than who they want in government. Imo, it's not much different to asking a loaded question like "thinking about which party you most trust on immigration, who would you vote for?" or "thinking about which party you most trust on the NHS, who would you vote for?" I'm going off the assumption that the Lib Dems will land somewhere inbetween the results of Ashcroft's generic question, and the constituency-specific question, which would leave them with about 15 seats.

Well, we just had a new plot wrinkle with ComRes (previously one of the Tories' best pollsters) putting Tories and Labour tied on 35%, with Labour up 3 from the last one.

I'm leaning towards a Farage win because I think UKIP are being underestimated by people too ashamed to admit to pollsters that they're voting for them. Sheffield Hallam is a complete toss-up, though. Probably staying up, yes, even at the risk of f***ing up my sleep pattern in the middle of my exams :drama: As things stand though, The inevitable chaos of the days following the election might be more exciting than election night itself.

Sheffield Hallam: Labour 37%, Clegg 36%, Tories 15% South Thanet: Tories 34%, Farage 32%, Labour 26%

It does now seem the polls are moving the Tories' way. 5 of 6 polls since Monday have had them in the lead.

New Scottish poll: SNP 54%, Labour 20%, Tories 17%, Lib Dems 5% The SNP would take every single seat bar Orkney & Shetland Islands, where they would only be 4% behind the Lib Dems on a uniform swing.

Even in most of the poor areas of the south west, the trade union movement never took off properly, so there wasn't really fertile ground for Labour. The Lib Dems have traditionally been the party of the poor there. Also loads of rich people go to retire in the south west (and old rich people = Tories, simplistically). (The exception is Bristol which has always been decent for Labour and, like most of the big cities, looks set to be a strong result for them again this time.)

Again, this is exactly the type of argument the Right always uses to defeat any "progressive" cause and get poor people to vote against their own self-interests.

The polls basically come down to how pumped up you think the less-likely-to-vote groups of Labour voters (mainly the very poor and young) are going to be. The pollsters which generally show Tory leads (ICM and ComRes) apply filters which down-weights people who didn't vote last time, while the pollsters which generally show Labour leads (YouGov and Populus) have most people expressing a preference taken into account regardless.

There's a really interesting surveys of a few Scottish seats by Lord Ashcroft asking people why they'd switched from Labour to the SNP. http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/ashcr...kip-11-green-7/ The main reasons cited were how close Labour are on policies to the Tories (“Boris Johnson said Ed Miliband was dangerously left wing, but I see him as being centre-right”), how the Scottish party just had its strings pulled by the Westminster party (“It’s the UK party that pulls the strings for the Labour party in Scotland. The referendum made people see that. Scotland is different”), and how Labour used such negative arguments in the independence referendum (“They could have been ‘Labour for No’ and made a socialist case for a No vote, and let the Conservatives focus on their core voters. It seemed like they were pushing a homogenous establishment view rather than a Labour view”). That said, there's a slight shred of hope for Labour at the end, some of the people saying they were considering SNP said they were worried they might help the Tories get in, and some were uneasy about some of the more...ahem..."distinctive" SNP candidates.

I have a feeling that Labour might be stronger there than they look, based on how Labour have constantly got stronger in Crosby/"Sefton Central". The Lib Dems imo might have a strong grip on tactical Labour voters there, which they should probably keep this time since the LibDem MP has been a bit independent from the coalition and has a high profile locally, but if in the future he steps down or becomes unpopular then I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour jump right up, as in Sheffield Hallam.

Highly likely I agree, but surely not a complete certainty? Support for independence in O&S was roughly equal to in the Scottish Borders, but the SNP apparently are in with a shot in the seats there...

Southport, Midlands? It's more north than me! :P Some of us on Politicalbetting were talking about how much store can be put in the Ashcroft results in Lib Dem seats. I'm not sure there can be tbh. The question that he asks that gives the good Lib Dem results is prompting people specifically to "think about your local area" -- but a lot of people surely AREN'T going to be thinking about the local area on election day, they're going to be thinking about the national picture and who they want in government. And in virtually all Lib Dem seats that Ashcroft has polled, the generic voting intentions question (which he asks before the "local area" question) puts the Lib Dems behind.

Cameron is campaiging in Yeovil today, Paddy Ashdown's former seat and previously thought to be a rock-solid LibDem fortress. The whispers have previously been that the Tories are doing very well in the South West up against the Lib Dems. It's getting to the point now where you could make a case for a Lib Dem loss in virtually all their seats bar Tim Farron's.

But, judging by the Scottish polls, it's had the opposite effect because Scots have apparently seen it as Labour joining in with the anti-Scottish bile, thus making people even more determined to vote SNP. And isn't the Fixed Term Parliaments Act a red herring? If no majority can be formed, then a new election is called automatically, just as it always was. EDIT: Apparently if a "vote of no confidence" passes in Parliament, then there's a two-week period where a new government can be formed, and if one can't be formed then it's a new election. So it is essentially the same as votes of no confidence before, the process is just stretched out a bit longer.

Unless the polls are way out of kilter, it's starting to look like a second election within months is unavoidable. It's hard to see how any combination on current poll numbers is going to come close to a majority, unless Labour were to actually grow a pair for a change and defend the DISGRACEFUL concept of Scotland contributing to the government of the country that they're still part of.

UKIP also ahead in Thurrock, Essex. Behind in Rochester & Strood, one of their by-election gains last year, though.

Latest personal ratings from Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon +42 Jim Murphy -22 David Cameron -29 Ed Miliband -31 Nick Clegg -49 It's debateable whether Murphy or Ed is the bigger hindrance to Labour in Scotland. Although Murphy has a better net rating overall, that's only because he polls well among Tory voters. With 2010 Labour voters (i.e. the people Labour desperately need to win back), Ed does better. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/docu...420_Website.pdf

Hillary Clinton coming out with more left-wing rhetoric than "Red Ed" would ever dare to: Hillary Clinton called for 'toppling' the 1%

YouGov Scotland poll: SNP 49%, Labour 25%.

And also shows how successful an unapologetically left-wing/social-democratic agenda can be if they have leaders who don't lose their nerve whenever the press starts criticising them.

Scottish Labour may have finally found a seat they can win: only 3% behind in Edinburgh South. This was one of the most anti-independence seats of all. SNP close to 60% in the Scottish subsamples of today's national polls.

OK, YouGov have Labour up 3%. If only you guys hadn't quoted me so that I could covertly edit that post :drama: