Qassändra

Very unlikely the Lib Dems, but not *completely* impossible. In the exceptionally unlikely event of a four-way race, the winning post would probably only be around 30%. Not an impossible figure to get to from ~17,000 Remain votes in the constituency. Just deeply unlikely the Lib Dems will be able to unify all that from a very low starting base. Having Tim Farron's local machine next door can't hurt though.

This doesn't seem likely to lead to World War III. There is no clear objective to be gained from Russia launching a retaliatory attack on Turkey for inadequately screening its ambassador's security detail. I mean before we forget, Turkey did shoot down a Russian plane two years ago for blipping over its airspace. Much more easily pinned on Turkish actions than an assassination motivated by objection to something Turkey assisted Russia with.

Lisa Ajax ON SECOND?!

Christ, if they won BOLSOVER... I'm cautiously optimistic that Labour would hold on to Derby South, Bassetlaw and Ashfield too, though Derby South could go. Chesterfield would also be a really, really big ask for the Tories to get.

It's possible, but tremendously unlikely I'd imagine. A fair chunk of the Remain vote in the constituency would've been from Conservative voters, who I think are more aligned to the idea that a decision has been made and Theresa May should be allowed to get on with it. I used to work in Lincoln, which is a next door constituency, and the typical Conservative Remain voter in Sleaford and North Hykeham will be very, very different in their cultural outlook to a typical Conservative Remain voter in Richmond Park. They could possibly move to the sort of fervently anti-Brexit position where they will happily vote against the Conservatives, but it'll take a while of some pretty sustained evidence that it's an economic disaster that won't work.

Because there is no way that she's going to be able to do all of the things you say without shattering several of our most important economic sectors by leaving them open to massive tariffs from the EU - a deal which would see her completely hated and loathed for shattering our economy. So the only way around that is paying into the EU budget. Which is a solution. But one which the government has done nothing to prime people for. So it's going to go down very, very badly.

You're right - I do, more than I did then. Although there is a difference in that it at least felt reachable then. Now there's at least some comfort in everything being terrible probably whatever happens. I don't really know what obvious 'better' deal there would be. The deal May will get will lend itself pretty well to the next thought process being 'wait, it probably just makes more sense for us to stay in as I wanted to be out on the basis it wouldn't cost us that much, and we're paying more for less access to stop immigration but we're paying a LOT to stop immigration' (two thirds of British people say they wouldn't give up a pound of their income to reduce immigration, which I think will become more obvious if we start paying a lot for the deal to stop it). Also, I know people kid themselves about a lot these days, but how many will realistically think 'someone is definitely waiting in the wings who is a tougher negotiator than Theresa May and capable of getting us better terms than when we were in the EU to begin with'?

...how?! I mean short of literally paying to subsidise imported good, I'm not sure how she gets around that 20% currency drop.

The other side of it is that I think the anti-Brexit side will be vindicated. There are a few reasons for that, but the one most likely to not get me told off for talking Britain down (or something) by the likes of PeaceMob is that the deal Theresa is aiming for (pay more than we pay for EU membership to begin with to keep single market access for a few select sectors) is going to go down like a cup of cold sick among a lot of Brexit voters, even besides how the economy's doing by that stage. And it's pretty much the best we could hope for the EU to agree to.

As I've said before, I think Brexit is going to completely smash pretty much everyone. Sure, it's not a pretty case to make, but there is an argument that in exchange for the pain for a comparative few you can on balance help the least off overall by, say, committing to a welfare cap with a Labour government. (Not one that works out if people don't really believe you either way, which is why I don't think Labour's going to pull off this immigration position too well.) The sum economic benefit we're going to get for subjecting everyone to a likely pretty severe recession via Brexit is...not immediately obvious. I don't think it's all that much of a moral quandary to choose to die in the ditch of fighting against the majority of the people in the country being made worse off. I suppose there is an irony in that I've come around to a Corbynite mindset, of sorts - neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are going to win any time soon, so I may as well stick true to my values and do all I can to pressure Labour to not get in the habit of social conservatism. I wouldn't have ordinarily gone for the Lib Dems as the best way of doing that, but the mindset in the party seems to only respond to external pressures at the moment. So be it.

(DISCLAIMER: the above post is not actually me predicting starving on the streets before anyone goes there)

Nah, not based on that. More just that I think Labour will have an even more incoherent, unbelievable position than normal (they're heading straight for a full-on anti-immigration position which...I don't see Corbyn being a particularly credible carrier for). As pissing off all sides to the extent neither believes the position goes, I think it's got a good chance of making the immigration mugs look like a storm in a teacup. (Leaving aside the merits of Brexit economically there too, but obviously a. I'm inclined to think it won't go well, and b. the way the party approaches things now I bet it could go so disastrously that there was STARVING IN THE STREETS AND SEVERAL HORSES OF THE APOCALYPSE ROAMING WILD and you'd still have most Labour MPs holding to the line of "but it's important we aren't seen to be overriding the NATIONAL WILL and VERY REAL CONCERNS about immigr-*blender noise*")

I would agree, but I think this does potentially depend on how much he gets shown up on Brexit should an early election on the issue happen. I could genuinely see Labour having a marginal chance of going the way of Scottish Labour if it happened, on vote share (but pretty much certainly not seats). I don't think it's impossible for the Lib Dems to get to the low 20s on the issue and Labour to sink to the low 20s on a mixture of the issue and everything else.

Brexit. And just as much down to the 'moderates' as the left of the party.

Henley 2008.

Danny may be amused to know that I have joined the Lib Dems.

*.*

Good point. On the other hand, if it's the predicted Fillon-Le Pen top two, arguably huge change is happening either way: it's just a matter of whether people would rather Thatcherite economic reform or anti-immigrant protectionism. Though the presumed answer to that doesn't give me a great deal of comfort either.

I imagine she's been chained to the studio door and done this on pain of getting dropped, to be honest.

I love the song title Running With Lions for Alice Svensson. Judging by Anderz Wrethov being on the credits I think we may be in for a cultural appropriation festival that makes SaraHa look RESERVED *.*

Apparently she's looking to go for a 1944 part 2 effect.

He only wrote for Samir & Viktor last year, so I'm guessing he's on a break at the moment. Or maybe just out of ideas? Bobby Ljunggren isn't in this year either.

Well, the polls did predict the result for Hillary within the margin of error at a national level. The capacity for a blindsiding was more down to there not being any reputable polls out of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania after the Comey announcement.

Charlotte's is apparently an emotional heartfelt stripped back ballad. FUCK OFF LOVE

With the LÅTSKRIVARNER Deltävling 1: Göteborg 04/02/17 Adrijana - Amare (Martin Tjärnberg, Adrijana Krasniqi) Boris Rene - Her Kiss (Tim Larsson, Tobias Lundgren) Nano - Hold On (Nano Omar, Gino Yonan, Ayak, Carl Rydén, Christoffer Belaieff, Rikard de Bruin, David Francis Jackson) Charlotte Perrelli - Mitt Liv (Charlotte Perrelli, Lars Hägglund) Dinah Nah - One More Night (Thomas G:son, Jimmy Jansson, Dinah Nah, Dr Alban) Det Vet Du - Road Trip (Johan Gunterberg, Christopher Martland) Ace Wilder - Wild Child (Peter Boström, Thomas G:son, Ace Wilder) Deltävling 2: Malmö 11/02/17 Mariette - A Million Years (Thomas G:son, Johanna Jansson, Peter Boström, Mariette Hansson, Jenny Hansson) Benjamin Ingrosso - Good Loovin' (Benjamin Ingrosso, Louis Schoorl, Matt Pardon) Dismissed - Hearts Align (Ola Salo, Peter Kvint) Roger Pontare - Himmel och hav (Thomas G:son, Alexzandra Wickman) Lisa Ajax - I Don't Give A (Ola Svensson, Linnea Deb, Joy Deb, Anton Hård af Segerstad) Etzia - Up (Johnny Sanchez, Hanif Sabzevari, Simon Gribbe, Erica Haylett) Allyawan - Vart haru varit? (Masse Salazar, Samuel Nazari) Deltävling 3: Växjö 18/02/17 Owe Thörnqvist - Boogieman Blues (Owe Thörnqvist) Bella & Filippa - Crucified (Peter Hägerås, Mats Frisell, Jakob Stadell, Filippa Frisell, Isabella Snihs) The Fooo Conspiracy - Got a Thing (Robert ”Mutt” Lange, Tony Nilsson) Jasmine Kara - Gravity (Anderz Wrethov, Jasmine Kara) Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On (David Kreuger, Hamed ”K-One” Pirouzpanah, Robin Stjernberg) Anton Hagman - Kiss You Goodbye (Christian Fast, Tim Schou, Henrik Nordenback) Krista Siegfrids - Snurra min jord (Krista Siegfrids, Gustaf Svenungsson, Magnus Wallin, Gabriel Alares) Deltävling 4: Skellefteå 25/02/17 Wiktoria - As I Lay Me Down (Justin Forrest, Jonas Wallin, Lauren Dyson) Les Gordons - Bound To Fall (Jonatan Renström, Albert Björliden, Andreas Persson, Carl Ragnemyr, David Runebjörk, Jimmy Jansson) Sara Varga och Juha Mulari – Du får inte ändra på mig (Sara Varga, Lars Hägglund) Jon Henrik Fjällgren feat Aninia - En värld full of strider (Jon Henrik Fjällgren, Sara Biglert, Christian Schneider, Andreas Hedlund) Axel Schyström - När ingen ser (Behshad Ashnai, Axel Schylström, David Strääf) Alice Svensson - Running With Lions (Anderz Wrethov, Andreas ”Stone” Johansson, Denniz Jamm, Alice Svensson) Loreen - Statements (Anton Hård af Segerstad, Joy Deb, Linnea Deb, Loreen) HOWLING at the sheer QASS FAN FICTION that is Dinah Nah coming back with a G:SON/DR ALBAN CO-WRITE! And The Fooo Conspiracy with MUTT LANGE!