Qassändra

I'm a little more wary on Texas given we're talking huge absolute numbers of voters shifting to potentially switch the state, compared with MO/SC (which I don't think are close, but are probably a leap too far this time around in the event of a polling error). In the long run I think we could end up seeing a solid coast as a Democratic firewall. Texas has been a Democratic dream for ages, but after Arizona and Georgia have been converted South Carolina and Mississippi will be pretty big prizes too. Those 42 EVs would pretty much even out Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania leaving the Democratic column. Throw in Texas too and the Democrats could pretty much lose the whole Midwest and not have to worry.

Yep, and McMullin (or who knows, maybe Hillary! When it's that nip and tuck between all three anything can go down) Utah. South Carolina and Missouri seem maybe a stretch too far, which is a shame because I think losing states like those really would've sent a shockwave through the Republicans that a platform like this will never be acceptable again. Living in hope my most optimistic scenario plays out anyway, because I think Alaska and Georgia going could have the same effect.

Oh COME ON

The term 'racist' literally means nothing if it doesn't apply to a man who has said a judge's Latino heritage makes him incapable of judging him, or a man who would ban 1.4 billion people from entering the USA on the basis of their being Islamic. The word 'sexist' literally means nothing if it doesn't apply to a man who boasts about being able to sexually assault women at will because he is a powerful and wealthy man. For someone so fond of big words, you seem to struggle with the meanings of small ones. Let alone bigger ones, such as invalidation. For a correct example of how to use the word 'invalidation', you prove that you are a racist and a sexist through your casual invalidation of the testimony of millions of people of colour and women who are terrified of Trump's election, because they take the man at his word. So you can take your "darker subtext" polysyllabic ramblings and shove them up your white supremacist arse, you absolute fucking jebend.

If only the FBI had concluded on Friday - it may have given the story enough time to penetrate and reset the race back to where it was after the debates. I still think there's a really good chance of a big polling error in Clinton's favour, given the number of undecideds and how many under-the-bonnet polling metrics point to voters thinking Clinton more suited to the presidency than Trump (in the same way as polling in the UK found a consistent preference for Cameron as PM and the Tories on the economy last year, despite the two parties being tied in the polls). If it happens I think 378-154-6 is probably the limit.

Trump's entire world philosophy is half a step away from not 'peacefully disagreeing'. If your issue here is the way I phrased it rather than his opinions in the first place, you probably need to check your priorities. "oh it's such a shame you have to be so insulting about mr hitler!!!!" I mean last summer I got dragged like hell because people thought I was being unfair in bringing up something that showed Ethan was fash as fuck from 5 years ago and hammering him on it when he kept hedging on whether he still believed it or whether it was all 'a joke', but you don't get 96 percent agreement with a scumbag like Donald Trump without being a racist, full stop.

god as if i ever got hate for calling you out as a fascist arsehole

babe please, treat yo'self to cristal it's the least you deserve after these last 15 months

Nope, UK time. Polls close around 7pm (their time) in most states and the networks declare fairly quickly if the margin is above 5 percent. Taking a stab that Ohio will be really narrow but that the almost incomparable gulf between Hillary and Trump in terms of get-out-the-vote operations will just about tilt it her way, but it's the most on-the-edge state in my prediction. Iowa could even go Hillary if GOTV really comes through on the day, but the Democrats have to have a *really* good election day performance to pull it off as they're a fair whack down on early voting compared with 2012. On your call, she doesn't even need New Hampshire if she has Nevada, and the state's top election watcher (Ralston) basically thinks Trump's lost it already on the basis of the early vote.

First declarations will be around midnight, but that'll just be the obvious lot (West Virginia et al for Trump, Vermont et al for Hillary). 1am onwards is where the fun should begin. They called Ohio for Obama at around half four in 2012.

My final prediction is 342-196. Same as 2012, but Iowa goes Trump and North Carolina and NE-2 go Clinton.

Just colour me simply *astounded* that you didn't place money on that absurdly long shot outcome that you were supposedly so certain on. I absolutely never would have seen that coming.

If it's anything like 2012, Florida will probably be one of the last states called. Obama won it by a narrow but fairly clear margin and it still didn't get declared for several days. We'll know when Michigan and North Carolina are called. If Michigan gets declared immediately for Hillary and she wins either Nevada or North Carolina, Trump has no route. They've focused him there for the last couple of days, so it's obviously the main Kerry state they think he has a shot of picking off, and he needs one of them to win. He's not getting Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin, and Michigan's the absolute closest he could muster. Still hasn't led in a poll there all year though.

Walk into your nearest bookies and ask them to quote you odds on Trump winning more than 40 states. You'd turn £50 into over £1,500 from betting on him winning more than 30 alone. Any bookie will be putting a minimum of 3 figures to 1 on an outcome that sees him winning Washington, Delaware and Connecticut.

heard a rumour bré prefers donald trump to mitt romney :kink:

You know you could make an absolute fortune if you put cash on any of this? £50 would probably get you enough to quit work for a year.

Honestly? Because I think they would've voted for an economic populist had one been on offer at the time, and failing that Blue Dog Democrats fitted culturally better with Democratic views in those states than Obama's liberalism (Hillary's wholesale adoption of that this year has been a factor too, I think. She basically kept identity politics completely out of her pitch until she had no choice in '08. This year it was front and centre.) There was some racism, no doubt. But it's a real stretch to look at the states Hillary won and the margins she won by and claim it was the defining factor.

This is a joke right? Literally no reason at all why someone might positively vote for Hillary Clinton in some of those states? Also, if white supremacy is your thing...you probably weren't voting in the Democratic primaries in 2008. The shift to the Republicans has been in place for a while now. Even in West Virginia, probably up there for the most racist state, only 22% said race was the main governing factor for their vote in 2008. Admittedly it may have been more subconscious for many, but I doubt something like the bitter clingers affair endeared Obama all that much to them. Hillary is being called a criminal who should not have been allowed to run in the election and who created ISIS by her opponent. Of course, nothing by comparison. It's kind of moved on from dog whistle to open shouting.

...catchy.

How stupid are these traders? Do they really think Theresa May is going to respond to a vote against activating Article 50 in Parliament with anything other than a snap general election that ends in a Remain massacre?

My point is more that if it were rejected on the basis that it was merely advisory, it probably wouldn't end well with the public.

In this day and age, that's for all intents and purposes a technicality.

In a nation where two thirds of voters think their taxes are already too high, a policy of increasing most people's taxes by about 10 cents in the dollar would be...not particularly popular, to say the least. It's all well and good winning match-ups when all you're known for is 'the system is stacked against ordinary Americans'. Ordinary Americans aren't likely to take too kindly to any solutions that involve them paying more for something that they've been told until that point is entirely the elite's fault.

Jeb's totally finished. He didn't want to run either way and any hype he ever had is completely cratered.

Aaaaand this is how rich right-wingers turn poor people against their own interests and the 'snobbish metropolitan liberal elite'. (granted, guilty on occasion)