Qassändra

There is, however, the advantage that if Remain replicated its demographic vote share on US demographics it would have won by a landslide.

Obviously it was triggered by the convention, but I don't think it's the convention itself that's made the move so pronounced - I think that's come as a result of his racist accusations against the dead soldier's family in the wake of it. I think that kind of lead is going to be tough for him to pull back substantially now that Republicans are either entering full panic mode or starting to openly endorse Hillary after those attacks, and especially now he's refused to endorse Paul Ryan. The narrative is sticking that not only is Trump morally unfit to be president, but that people are scared to have such a loose cannon in that position. I think if the bounce was primarily because of enthusiasm for the Democrats after their convention you'd be seeing more discussion about how Hillary had changed minds. I don't deny that there are plenty of people who will do anything to change things. The problem is that Trump is probably the most extreme 'anything but this, even though who knows what might happen?' choice there's ever been in a proper election like this. With Brexit there were a lot of arguments that people could fall back on for reassurance that it would all be fine - 5th biggest economy and so on. There's not much reassurance there for those who might be open to Trump's message but aren't in an 'anything but this' position.

Is the collective opinion still that it's Trump's to lose? (my current likely ludicrously optimistic prediction is 384-154 to HRC)

Better things to do with my life than watch a fish attempt to put up a fight from the barrel.

I don't think he'd drop out. Now he's saying that the election will be rigged, even the worst loss will still be a win.

Racism never died down. White people just started congratulating themselves on not using the n word openly.

I do wonder though - has scapegoating of minorities *actually* grown by all that much, or is it just that a mixture of social media, self-organisation and performative 'wokeness' from middle class white people with a platform has shone more of a spotlight on it when it happens? I get the feeling it's pretty much always been terrible, but things are just coming to more of a head as it's easier for small committed groups of extremists to win out when politics is this diffuse.

Babes, by saying you're voting Johnson you'd still count in the polls as a Bernie or Bust Democrat rn!

Oh look, someone can say the word connections a few times. Guess I'd better vote for an open fascist!!!!!!!!!!!!

This all happened far too quickly.

Panic if it's still the same in two weeks. Judging the polls coming after one convention and before another is probably the worst time in the entire year to try and gauge how the election will go.

Since when were a few celebrities any bellwether at all?

Dunning-Kruger. You get to change it back if Trump wins.

I know right. Who'd have *ever* guessed Ethan would be supporting the racist?

Lock her up for what?

He's not looking likely to win Wisconsin though - not only has he not led in a single poll there all year, his best poll has had Hillary five points ahead. That's including the post-primary period where Bernie fans sat on their hands and said they were Don't Knows and the recent increase in Trump's vote. It's not looking likely to be a swing state at all, but for the Rust Belt scenario to work, it has to be. Did he need to? Are there many minority voters out there who weren't motivated by a burning fear to stop Trump who were waiting on who Hillary Clinton was going to have as a backup option for impetus to vote Democratic? On the contrary, I think - and it's a little depressing - that great as it would've been for Tom Perez or another woman to be on the ticket for Hillary, there are far too many identity-sensitive white men out there who may be open to voting Democrat but who would've seen it as a slight to not be represented and part of the broader culture war going on in America at the moment.

The Brexit comparison which he hangs it on is moot though. In a presidential election between Cameron and Farage, Cameron would've stormed it. There's a difference between voting for a nebulous idea which had several different dimensions that brought people to it (so you don't mind immigrants? How about the EU's problems with democracy!) and voting for a person who is tremendously well defined as being a dreadful fit for the presidency for a lot of different reasons. Are there a lot of really dissatisfied people out there? Sure. Does the number who want to damn it all to hell and watch the world burn by electing a temperamentally broken man to the presidency add up to 50 percent? I'm not convinced. (For the record, Michael Moore also thought Romney would beat Obama in 2012, for much the same reasons.)

I think he's probably referring to the Trump University case. EDIT: OH WAIT, no. But he has still hoodwinked the intellectually vulnerable with the Trump Uni scam.

A reminder also that Angela Eagle was the left's candidate in the deputy leadership election. Soft left =/= 'right wing' unless words have no meaning anymore.

Angela Eagle drops out of the leadership race.

WHAT THE FUCK ARE THEY DOING NOT CHOOSING HEART SHAPED HOLE FOR DENMARK?! :manson:

Money doesn't just go on ads, and the difference will be that the two candidates will probably get equal news coverage in a way that the other Republican candidates didn't in the primaries.

If it's about money, Clinton will win as well. Trump's fundraising has been really bad - last month Clinton raised $42.5m. Trump raised $1.3m.

'Trump's to lose' despite more Americans *severely* disapproving of him than say they disapprove (severely or mildly) of Hillary? It takes a lot of persuasion to turn that around. The Brexit comparison is weak - there's no way in hell a presidential election between Cameron and Farage would've ended in Farage winning. There's a difference in a referendum and an election between two people - there are plenty of people who might be amenable to Trump's message who just think he's a racist dick who's totally unsuited to the presidency.

And look at all the good it did him.