Qassändra

Aside from her beating the candidate sold on that merit by several million votes? In any case, it wasn't millennials not turning out that called last year's election wrong, as opposed to a systematic skewing across most age groups towards Labour. 'Were' always going to rally around? They haven't in great number - or at least, that isn't the main reason the gap has narrowed. Clinton has fallen in the polls because a large chunk of independent Bernie supporters have started saying they're undecided. It comes down to how many of those you think in the end will legitimately think that Clinton and Trump are basically the same and not vote/vote for Jill Stein. If Bernie refuses to endorse Hillary (which looks like it could be a possibility at this point), there's a real chance that might happen - but it would go against everything he's said previously on the topic. You have one candidate who is betting everything on turning out one of the most rapidly decreasing demographics - the white working class, particularly males - while being hugely repellent to minority voters (he's currently at 11% with Hispanics. Mitt was at 33%) and female voters. Hillary doesn't have an especially broad appeal either, but a majority of fear and loathing versus a majority of strong mistrust and dislike points one way. In a war of repellence, only one of them's winning demographics-wise.

At this point in 2008, McCain was consistently leading Obama and Labour were consistently leading the Conservatives. When it comes down to it, Trump's fundamentals are infinitely worse than Hillary's.

LOL

What a horrible thing to say about Danny!

God Mark Steel is the most tedious straw manner ever.

OPENING WITH BELGIUM CLOSING WITH ARMENIA *.* 01 Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure? 02 Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčikova - I Stand 03 The Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down 04 Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle 05 Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer 06 Italy: Francesca Michielin - No Degree of Separation 07 Israel: Hovi Star - Made of Stars 08 Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 09 Sweden: Frans - If I Were Sorry 10 Germany: Jamie-Lee - Ghost 11 France: Amir - J'ai cherché 12 Poland: Michał Szpak - Colour of Your Life 13 Australia: Dami Im - Sound of Silence 14 Cyprus: minus one - Alter Ego 15 Serbia: Sanja Vučić - Goodbye (Shelter) 16 Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 17 Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 18 Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 19 Spain: Barei - Say Yay! 20 Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat 21 Ukraine: Jamala - 1944 22 Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water 23 Georgia: Nika Kocharov & Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 24 Austria: Zoë - Loin d'ici 25 United Kingdom: Joe & Jake - You're Not Alone 26 Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave

Germany over Belgium to open is SO INSANE that ACTUALLY I COULD SEE THEM DOING IT

My pet theory on the slot is that last is great if you're nothing like any of the tracks that have gone on before, but not really ideal if it is, as at that point a fair proportion of the audience just wants it over with so you need to be bringing something new to the table to hold their attention.

MOLLY! Statistically 16-24 is far safer ground. I'm guessing there's less chance of the audience starting to flag by that point.

Now I was a FAN of Round and Round but LIFECHANGING is a STRETCH!

I think they're very unlikely to put a track they're pushing for the win last considering how hit and miss the slot's been!

I'd like to see something like: 01 Belgium: Laura Tesoro - "What's the Pressure" 02 Hungary: Freddie - "Pioneer" (get this UTTER SHIT out of the way, but I can see the death slot just as easily going to Germany) 03 Poland: Michal Szpak - "Colour of Your Love" 04 Netherlands: Douwe Bob - "Slow Down" 05 Bulgaria: Poli Genova - "If Love Was a Crime" 06 France: Amir - "J'ai cherché" 07 Israel: Hovi Star - "Made of Stars" 08 Azerbaijan: Samra - "Miracle" 09 Sweden: Frans - "If I Were Sorry" 10 Australia: Dami Im - "Sound of Silence" 11 Germany: Jamie-Lee - "Ghost" 12 Italy: Francesca Michielin - "No Degree of Separation" 13 Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - "I Stand" 14 Georgia: Nika Kocharov & Young Georgian Lolitaz - "Midnight Gold" 15 Malta: Ira Losco - "Walk on Water" 16 Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - "Goodbye (Shelter)" 17 Lithuania: Donny Montell - "I've Been Waiting for This Night" 18 United Kingdom: Joe & Jake - "You're Not Alone" 19 Russia: Sergey Lazarev - "You Are the Only One" 20 Ukraine: Jamala - "1944" 21 Croatia: Nina Kraljić - "Lighthouse" 22 Latvia: Justs - "Heartbeat" 23 Cyprus: Minus One - "Alter Ego" 24 Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - "LoveWave" 25 Spain: Barei - "Say Yay!" 26 Austria: Zoë - "Loin d'ici" (D'ACCORD *.*)

I think Labour should win, but I'm a bit worried Galloway might take enough votes to throw it to the Tories.

I'm not sure how many times I can say 'it's almost as if nationalism isn't actually motivated by socialism!'.

01 ► Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat 02 ► Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 03 ► Switzerland: Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind 04 ► Israel: Hovi Star - Made Of Stars 05 ► Belarus: IVAN - Help You Fly 06 ► Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 07 ► Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 08 ► Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona 09 ► Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 10 ► Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 11 ► Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue And Red 12 ► Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 13 ► Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 14 ► Ukraine: Jamala - 1944 15 ► Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker 16 ► Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 17 ► Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 18 ► Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure

They choose a country to host it in, but the Australian broadcaster hosts it there.

I'M SO SAD FOR DEEN

What the UTTER FUCK at ICELAND OUT under that HUNGARIAN TOSS I'm FURIOUS! (OMG YAY AUSTRIA)

ED MILIBAND DID NOT OFFER BLAIRITE POLICIES, THE WORD HAS LITERALLY NO MEANING IF SOFT LEFT AND NEW LABOUR ARE COUNTED AS THE SAME THING. PEOPLE IN ENGLAND WERE NOT TURNING AWAY FROM LABOUR BECAUSE THEY THOUGHT LABOUR WERE ABOUT TO ENFORCE AUSTERITY In any case, Ed Miliband was perceived by most undecided voters as having absolutely zero leadership qualities whatsoever. It's not really something you could say would've been likely for Liz or Yvette (although I can imagine Yvette may have come across as prevaricating as well, she just didn't come across as downright strange as Ed did). In terms of gut feel that voters had for him, it would be almost impossible for the others to have not come across better. Naturally, we went for the sole candidate who didn't. [citation needed] [citation needed!!!] Which probably indicates a level in the mid-30s at worst for the Conservatives again in 2020. And one in the high 20s/low-30s for Labour at best in 2020. Not that there's a hope in hell Labour will be above 30pc with Corbyn as leader at a general election.

The British Election Study has come to a similar conclusion...

Which makes the two point rise for Labour pretty damning - it's the key tell that Labour isn't the party benefiting from the government's unpopularity. I don't think the most crucial stat is their relative positions at all. A government will almost always be unpopular in the mid-term and recover ground in the lead-up to a general election - they've got plenty of time to get back their support. An opposition has a different standard - it needs to be bolting ahead as far as it can early on in the first year or two when the government is unpopular, because it's only going to start shedding voters once the election comes around. A mild judder ahead the year after a general election is a dreadful performance in that regard, because history indicates the opposition generally does a fair bit worse come the general election than it did in its first set of council elections. It feels like a futile argument to make given the point of Corbyn isn't electoral (which is why I really wish his supporters would stop trying to have their cake and eat it). But I really, really dispute the point that the other candidates would be doing 'just as badly' as Corbyn is, if only because at best he's doing as well as Ed Miliband and they were all a damned sight better than him. To claim that Corbyn is equivalent to Ed is to claim that everything in the last six months has had barely any impact on Labour's popularity with ordinary voters (and none of it would've been happening under any of the other three. Well, there'd have probably been attempts at union disaffiliation in the event of Liz, but what that would've resulted in is a different topic). I think you know that won't be true at all.

The bigger worry is looking at it year-on-year. Labour got an eight point increase in 2011 over our performance the year before. Given the typical trajectory of opposition leads over a parliament, a two point increase on our general election performance in year one is...not promising.

WTF I mean it's a total masterstroke but STILL

Invoking kobbar here to scream NOOOOOO at Prince dying at a slightly inconvenient time for chart tracking

Watford was already Lib Dem - though it should have been mentioned, as it was a surprise that they consolidated control of it so much. The expectation was that they would lose it.